Dolphins @ Chargers Week 14 Game Preview

Dolphins (-3.0) at Chargers – 54.5 total

I was wrong about last week’s game for the Dolphins. Well, partially wrong. The 49ers did give the league a blueprint of how to beat Miami. San Francisco’s corners pressed the Dolphins’ receivers at a season-high rate, and their pass rush had Tua Tagovailoa under fire on 27.8% of his dropbacks. Plus, the 49ers used their heat-seeking missile at linebacker to disrupt Tua’s post-snap processing.

So, sure. San Francisco showed us the right defensive scheme to short-circuit the Dolphins. All you need is All-Pro talent at edge, linebacker, and a defensive coordinator to create problems in coverage. They also need to face Miami’s offense when down two starting offensive linemen. The Chargers check most of those boxes but are yet to play to the same level. As a result, Miami may get back to their high-scoring ways on Sunday.

Jaylen Waddle (fibula) left during the 49ers’ game, but got in full practices on Thursday and Friday. Between the two Blur Brothers, Waddle’s 3.92 YPRR from the slot ranks ahead of Tyreek Hill’s when Tua is under center. The sophomore receiver also dominates after getting the ball with a blistering 8.3 YAC per reception per PFF. His efficiency from the slot becomes all the more interesting when considering the Chargers’ interior defense.

Davante Adams (12-177-2) and DeAndre Hopkins (6-87-1) found the paint on inside routes in back-to-back weeks. The San Francisco slot players were just shy of the century mark in Week 10 at 93 yards, but Christian McCaffrey (6-39-0) had to get in on the fun. Regardless, the Chargers’ secondary has surrendered multi-TD performances in three straight weeks. Waddle’s workload (21.3% target share) and role will put him back in the top 12 conversation after SNF. I could say the same about a Chargers’ receiver, too.

Mike Williams got two straight full practices and is on track for his first healthy game since Week 7. However, it feels like too little, too late. Joe Lombardi is yet to find a way to push the ball downfield unless Williams is on the field. Otherwise, this offense becomes frustrating to watch.

Justin Herbert has averaged 6.2 air yards per attempt this season. Notable quarterbacks with a similar passing depth are Matt Ryan (6.0) and Baker Mayfield (6.5). We remember the highlight plays, but the majority focuses on the short area of the field.

We can forget Austin Ekeler is 31st out of 38 running backs in success rate because he’s on pace to break Christian McCaffrey’s target record (142). He has the same target share as Tee Higgins. Coincidentally, McCaffrey just tagged the Dolphins for 80 yards on ten targets on Sunday, giving Ekeler a clear runway for another high-scoring fantasy day in PPR formats. But a couple of wideouts aren’t too far behind.

Williams provides a much-needed spark to get the downfield passing game going. But his presence should also benefit Herbert’s intermediate targets. In Weeks 1-6, DeAndre Carter (9.2 aDOT) and Josh Palmer (7.1) were second behind Williams in looks on third down and combined for the most first downs on the team. His contested-catch skillset brings a tactical value critical to the entire offense as they fight for a playoff spot.