Dolphins @ Commanders Week 13 Game Preview

Remember that 2018 Chiefs-Rams game? The matchup pitted two pass-heavy offenses against each other, with star-studded rosters on both sides. We got a total of 95 throws and 1,001 yards of total offense in a single game.

A Dolphins-Commanders game sets up as a (very) lite reincarnation of the contest that left every fantasy manager happy. At least the ingredients are there.

Over the last month of action, both teams rank in the top 12 in plays per game, with Washington running a league-leading 72.5 snaps per contest. And at 62.2% (third-highest rate in the league) and 58.0% (eighth-highest), each squad prefers to take shots on early downs. So, with one of the highest totals on the slate (48.5), there should be plenty of fantasy goodness to go around. 

Luckily, the Dolphins get an extra couple days of rest before heading to FedEx Field. Tyreek Hill spent all of Week 12 as a limited participant in practice along with Miami’s primary rushers, De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Regardless, Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa have still approached the offense like they have all season.

Tua has attempted fewer than 30 passes just once this season. And since Week 4, Hill and Jaylen Waddle have accounted for 56.3% of Tua’s targets. Waddle’s results have been inconsistent (sub-ten-point outings bookended with 25.1 and 19.4-point outbursts), but his opportunity isn’t. He’s seen over 30.0% of the team’s air yards in four straight games and five or more looks in every game. So, Hill and Waddle are likely auto-starts, but the Commanders have more than one weakness on defense.

Since trading away Montez Sweat and Chase Young, Washington ranks 28th in rushing EPA allowed, and they’ve allowed an RB1 finish in every game. The natural reaction would be to start a Dolphins’ RB, but we don’t know which one to use.

De’Von Achane’s availability is uncertain at best. With Miami being a touchdown favorite, it might take a tougher matchup for us to see Achane out on the field again. Mostert is still dealing with an ankle injury, but he did handle over half of the carries against the Jets, while Jeffery Wilson earned three of the four RB targets. Mostert also took all of the green-zone work, which should make him the preferred option in most fantasy formats.

For the Commanders, let’s talk about Sam Howell. Wait. Excuse me. “The NFL leader in passing yards” Sam Howell.

But we know what the drawbacks are to Howell’s dropbacks. On the season, he has the highest sack rate and is in the bottom half of the league in passing success rate. But, on the bright side, he has been able to cut back on the sacks (7.3% sack rate since Week 9, 14th-worst). And it’s not like the Commanders’ offense has drastically changed in the process.

Washington has still maintained a high plays-per-game rate, and Howell has attempted over 40 passes in every game since Week 7. But one thing that has changed is how far he’s going downfield.

Howell had an average depth of target of 8.6 yards from Weeks 7 through 9. Since then, it’s been down to 7.1 air yards per attempt. As a result, and when he’s not getting thrown out of games, Curtis Samuel has been the safest WR to start. Despite his 60.4% route rate, the veteran WR has been at the top of the Commanders’ passing game from a TPRR standpoint over his last two full games, which works well, given Miami’s (small) weakness on defense.

Fantasy points for WRs have been harder to come by since Jalen Ramsey’s return. However, Rashee Rice and Kendrick Bourne found the end zone from the slot where Samuel typically plays. Regardless, Samuel’s shallow aDOT should make him a reliable WR3 in a tough matchup on Sunday.