Dolphins @ Ravens Week 17 Game Preview

OK, I’m trying to thread a needle here.

On the one hand, I want Lamar Jackson to win the MVP. If you’re looking for a pro-Lamar statistical argument from me, you won’t find it here. He’s Top 10 in every metric you’ll usually see me cite for QB eval. Again, Top 10. Not first or behind a couple of other high-end passers. Well, except for rushing. Regardless, his control over this offense in its first season, through injuries and tough defenses, has been remarkable. So, Baltimore getting another W works for me. 

However, I also want to see Tyreek Hill get to 2,000 receiving yards. He’s 359 yards away with two games left.

Because of math, he’d need at least 180 to get back on track. Typically, if a WR gets to that mark, his team is winning. Actually, the only time this season that hasn’t worked is when CeeDee Lamb did it in Week 9 against the Eagles. The other eight times were all wins. So, Hill posting nearly two bills as a receiver also works.

Like I said, I’m trying to thread a needle here. But it could happen. Let’s start with Hill’s (and the rest of Miami’s) prospects against the Ravens.

In Week 15, Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa emphasized the team’s ability to thrive even without Hill. Granted, it was against the Jets. And the defense pitched a shutout. But really, the only effect the lopsided game had on Miami’s offensive approach was their total play volume.

Hill escaped Week 16 without having a setback, but Jaylen Waddle is now dealing with a high ankle sprain. The third-year WR had four targets in the first quarter, went to the medical tent and locker room, and didn’t touch the ball again until the third frame. In his absence, a few of his teammates stepped up to take some attention away from Hill’s 46.4% target share. Regardless, there are a couple of ways Miami could attack the Ravens’ defense, even with Waddle at less than full speed.

Ced Wilson and Durham Smythe are role players. Wilson was the only other WR targeted in obvious passing situations. And Smythe helped move the chains on early downs. We can’t trust either in fantasy lineups this weekend, but a less-concentrated passing game opens the door for two options we should.

Raheem Mostert was also in and out of last week’s game with a lower leg injury. It didn’t stop him from subbing in for De’Von Achane on the four-yard line for a short score (much to the chagrin of Achane managers), but Mostert only played on 29.7% of the snaps. He still led the team with 12 touches, including the score, which should keep him in the RB2 discussion. For the rookie, things might be a little different.

For the Ravens, everything is on the table. Gus Edwards can plow through a defensive line for a short gain. Zay Flowers can create separation for an explosive downfield. And it all intersects at Lamar.

This play encapsulates their evolution this season.

“Lamar, just run it.” That’s what I said to myself, watching it in real-time.

Sure, it would have been a short gain, but Jackson’s mobility has been a constant. The thing we know he can do to create more manageable situations. But instead, he used the threat of his legs to generate an even bigger gain. As a result, the offense has been able to slide in and out of pass and run-first approaches over their last four games.

If the offense leans on their running game, at least we have an idea of the touch distribution. With Keaton Mitchell out, Edwards and Justice Hill took over the backfield, with their roles meeting expectations.

Hill’s speed gave him the inside track on most of the receiving work, and the ‘Gus Bus’ lived up to his nickname with another short score. Edwards’s short-yardage and receiving work give him low-end RB2 appeal, and Hill would only be a viable option in deep leagues. Regardless, if the Ravens have to keep pace with Miami’s offense, they might take to the air against the Dolphins’ secondary anyway.

Flowers has reclaimed the WR1 role with a 25.8% target share and runs the most routes from the area of the field where the Dolphins are weakest. His 38.1% slot rate should make him an easy option for Jackson, but TE Isaiah Likely isn’t too far behind. 

Likely has averaged 5.8 looks per game and has become an integral part of the offense. He has the third-most targets when Jackson is under pressure and second-most in obvious passing situations. Odell Beckham has transitioned to playing primarily on the outside (13.8% slot rate). While he still leads in air yards, he falls into the infinite WR3 tier, leaving Flowers and Likely as the two best options for Week 17.