Dolphins @ Chiefs (in Germany) Week 9 Game Preview
Chris Allen previews the Week 9 matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs from a fantasy football and betting standpoint.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Honest question: how mad are you this week if you live in the London area?
The NFL has hosted three games at Wembley Stadium and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium featuring the following QBs:
- Josh Allen (cool, good start)
- Lamar Jackson (now we’re cookin’)
- Trevor Lawrence (solid, no notes)
- Ryan Tannehill (wait, what)
- Desmond Ridder (lol)
Don’t get me wrong, most of these guys are good if not high-end, signal-callers by most measures. But, objectively, only two of those passers pilot top-12 offenses. Meanwhile, Germany gets not one but two top-10 squads.
Without question, Dolphins-Chiefs is the matchup of the week. But it has season-long implications. We could look back on this Week 9 bout as the point where we knew Miami was for real. Or, the rest of the AFC will resign itself to another season with Patrick Mahomes as the QB to beat in January.
On the Miami side, the explosiveness of the passing isn’t much of a surprise anymore. Tua Tagovailoa has completed the most downfield passes this season, averaging two per game. But his intermediate efficiency has been especially devastating to defenses. On throws between 10 and 20 air yards, his 69.1% success rate sits atop the league. And he has two of the best WRs in the league to keep the offense moving.
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) takes the field before the start of the game against the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Jan. 8, 2023.
Over the last month, it’s like it’s 2022 again. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both in the Top 12 in YPRR. On the season, Hill’s absurd 4.26 YPRR sits over a full yard ahead of the next receiver (Brandon Aiyuk – 3.23). And because of injuries, it’s taken his dynamic sidekick half the season to (literally) get back up to speed. But we should’ve seen this coming.
After missing Week 3, Waddle’s return to the lineup was a modest outing of five targets with 16.0% of the air yards. The anemic air yard share should’ve been our first clue. Since then, it’s grown each week to 44.1% against the Patriots last week.
Even accounting for the Eagles’ game where Waddle missed time due to a back injury, the third-year receiver ranks third in TPRR (32.5%) right behind Ja’Marr Chase and three fewer targets than A.J. Brown. His resurgence eliminates any fantasy consideration for the ancillary options (Braxton Berrios, Cedrick Wilson). But against the Chiefs’ defense, it’ll be all hands on deck trying to keep up with Mahomes and company.
I feel like this needs to be said, but no, I’m not worried about the Chiefs’ offense.
A loss like the one to Denver happens every year. We, the football-consuming public, wring our hands and get concerned. And afterward, Kansas City marches through the AFC West and hosts another title game. Not saying this year will have the same result, but they do have a 6-2 record. Let’s breathe a little.
But if I could gripe for a second, I’d complain about the passing game a bit. No, I’m not taking a shot at Mahomes. His 7.1% scramble rate is a career-high, but he’s still top-5 in passing success rate, and the offense averages the fourth-most yards per drive.
I’d just like him, or Andy Reid, to give us some clarity on who will lead the WRs.
Fantasy managers expect it to be Rashee Rice. The rookie receiver from SMU has accrued the most fantasy points over the last four weeks (51.1). The next closest WR has 22.3. But you’d never know it by looking at Rice’s peripherals:
- Air Yard Share: 9.6% (3rd)
- Route rate: 49.7% (3rd)
- TPRR: 22.7% (2nd)
In the words of Killmonger, is this your king?
But it’s not like we can trust Skyy Moore who did his best Kadarius Toney impersonation with a brutal drop against Denver. And while Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the crew in air yards, his 9.8% TPRR suggests he’s getting in more cardio work than actual work.
Rice’s red-zone target share (four less than Travis Kelce) should be enough to keep us interested. And if the Dolphins’ offense forces a shootout, they’ll need as much help as they can get from Rice to keep up.