Dwain McFarland's 2023 QB Tiers

Ranking players by position is integral to fantasy football preparation, but grouping them into tiers is crucial to identifying the value you might be leaving in the draft room. 

For example, if you're on the clock and looking at several quarterbacks in the same tier, waiting until the next round could make sense—someone equally as worthy may be available with your next pick.

Tiers can also help group players with similar expectations based on upside and floor, which is great for finding arbitrage plays. For example, Geno Smith profiles similarly to Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence this season, but you can draft him 50 to 60 picks later.

Tier 1 – The alphas

Josh Allen | Bills

Allen is the all-time record holder for most consecutive seasons with 24-plus fantasy points per game at three.

• 2022: 26.0
• 2021: 24.6
• 2020: 25.6

That is a mark Peyton Manning reached once in his illustrious career. Aaron Rodgers has three such seasons. What Allen is doing is next level, and his archetype is the measuring stick by which we now evaluate fantasy QBs.

Allen offers the perfect blend of high-end passing and rushing upside thanks to his ability and the Bills' pass-first mentality.

Most of Lawrence’s improvement came from a clean pocket where his PFF pass grade jumped from 69.6 to 90.1. However, pressure remained problematic for the young signal caller. He followed up his 38.8 rookie-season grade with a 32.9—far below the 50.7 NFL average.

While Lawrence still has things to clean up, it is hard not to get excited about what the Jaguars are doing on offense. The offense might not have an alpha target earner, but they have an abundance of quality options.

• WR – Christian Kirk (21% target share)
• WR – Calvin Ridley (24% in his last full season)
• WR – Zay Jones (20%)
• TE – Evan Engram (16%)

The Jaguars were a balanced team last year but opened things up during their playoff stretch run, throwing the ball 75% while trailing (+9), 59% when close (+0), and 55% when leading (+7). Whether that carries over into the 2023 season remains to be seen, but with the Jaguars' current roster construction, putting a little more air on the ball would make sense.

The third-year QB was used slightly more than the NFL average in the designed rush game last year (9%), along with an average scramble rate of 4%. While he hasn’t turned into the dual-threat option some hoped, those numbers have been enough to support 334 and 291 yards, along with two and five rushing TDs in his first two seasons.

Lawrence hasn’t notched two 22-plus-point seasons like Herbert, but he is in a similar situation, surrounded by weapons that could unlock a monster passing season.

Do you believe in Lawrence's upside in 2023? You can start drafting him TODAY on Underdog Fantasy! Double your first deposit of up to $100 by signing up below and start drafting today!

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer

Tier 4 – Swinging for the fences

Deshaun Watson | Browns

Fantasy managers that waited for Watson’s return or scooped him off the waiver wire in hopes of top-three upside were severely disappointed last season. Watson was a shell of himself, but ignoring his previous four seasons of fantasy production is challenging:

• 2017: 25.0 points per game (N/A, only seven games)
• 2018: 21.7 points per game (4th)
• 2019: 22.0 points per game (2nd)
• 2020: 23.8 points per game (5th)
• 2022: 15.1 points per game (N/A, only six games)

He will only be 28 this season, and the Browns have alluded to getting more out of their investment by crafting a more pass-heavy approach, and their offseason moves back it up.

• RBs Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson are gone
• Traded for WR Elijah Moore
• Drafted WR Cedric Tillman in Round 3

Watson won’t reach designed rush shares like Hurts, Jackson, and Fields, but he earned a healthy 13% last year—above the 7% NFL average. You have a solid rushing floor to build on when you add that to his above-average career scramble rate of 8%. Watson has a 31-yard per-game rushing average for his career and offers 500-yard upside on the ground.

We don’t know which version of Watson we will see in 2023, but the high-end iteration is undoubtedly in the range of outcomes, making him worth a swing if drafting for ceiling after the top options are off the board.

Arbitrage: Patrick Mahomes

Anthony Richardson | Colts

The No. 4 NFL Draft pick is raw as a passer, and the Colts' weapons aren’t great, but Richardson could still coast to a top-12 finish thanks to his legs. He ran for 654 yards and nine TDs in 12 games as a senior at Florida, accounting for 17% of the designed rushing attempts and posting an 8.4% scramble rate.

In the NFL, sacks don’t count against rushing totals, and you get an extra five games—making it hard to imagine Richardson totaling less than 750 yards on the ground. Since 2012, we have had nine instances of a QB passing for less than 3,500 yards while besting 750 yards on the ground, and they averaged 22 points per game, with only one missing the 20-point threshold at 19.7.

Richardson battled accuracy woes in college, finishing with a 55% career completion rate. While we can’t expect him to fix that overnight, if he makes any improvement at the NFL level, he could produce similar results to Fields, and you can get him multiple rounds later.

Arbitrage: Justin Fields

Tier 5 – Paths to upside

Aaron Rodgers | Jets

Rodgers posted his worst fantasy season in 2022, averaging a lowly 15 points per game. However, he lost Davante Adams, and Christian Watson battled injuries early in the season. We only have to turn back the clock to 2021 and 2020 to find 24.5 and 21.0 averages.

The 19-year veteran doesn’t use his legs like he used to, but only Mahomes and Allen have delivered more TD passes outside of structure in scramble drills over the last three years. Rodgers still has the arm strength to make all the throws and the ability to break down the evolving coverages QBs face in today’s NFL.

The Jets will likely operate a balanced attack, but that is the same type of offense Rodgers smashed in 2020 and 2021. No one will mistake Nathaniel Hackett for an offensive genius, but it is reasonable to expect him to operate a similar offense that Rodgers is comfortable with.

New York offers above-average talent in the receiving room, with uber-talented Garrett Wilson leading the way and Allen Lazard, Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman, and Tyler Conklin operating as contributors.

Rodgers lands at the top of the tier because of his demonstrated ceiling, which we need access to if waiting on QB in 2023.

Arbitrage: Joe Burrow

Geno Smith | Seahawks

After spending the previous seven seasons as a backup, the former second-round pick shocked the world with 19 points per game (QB7). 

Whether operating from a clean pocket or dealing with pressure, Smith earned above-average marks in PFF pass grades and delivered a sizzling 70% completion rate despite a healthy 8.2 aDOT. The NFL average for passers between a 7.7 and 8.7 aDOT is 63% since 2006 (minimum 250 attempts).

The Seahawks were below average in regulation plays per game (60.8), but this improved from their dreadful mark of 55.6 in 2021. Additionally, in most game scripts, Shane Waldron leaned more into the passing attack versus the NFL average.

• Leading by four-plus points: 48% (-1)
• Within three points: 62% (+3)
• Trailing by four-plus points: 72% (+4)

While the Seahawks were below average in total plays in regulation (21st), they ranked 13th in pass attempts thanks to their No. 3 rank in average time remaining on the play clock in neutral situations (11.1 seconds).

Jan 8, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

In 2023 there is a chance we see the team open up the passing game even more after spending a first-round draft pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will join D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The trio can potentially be one of the best WR units in the NFL and provides Smith with many live-outs regarding ceiling scenarios.

1. The Seahawks could pass more if Geno is cooking
2. Seattle could keep pass/run ratios the same, but efficiency improves
3. Shootout scenarios could open up more pass-friendly scripts
4. Some combination of any or all of these

In addition to his passing upside, Smith isn’t your typical pocket passer. He generated 366 rushing yards last season, picking up where he left off in his first two seasons (381 and 240). Smith only scored one rushing TD in 2022, which leaves room for upside. Since 2006, QBs that have averaged between 300 and 400 rushing yards averaged 2.6 TDs.

Smith is one of my favorite targets in early best-ball drafts.

You can draft Smith at his current ADP of 121.6 on Underdog Fantasy by signing up below for a 100% deposit match of up to $100!

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer

Arbitrage: Justin Herbert & Trevor Lawrence

Daniel Jones | Giants

Jones set career-high marks in YPA (6.8), completion rate (67%), and quarterback rating (92.5). His 0.52 points per dropback was also a new watermark, thanks to his 703 yards and 7 TDs on the ground. 

With Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka pulling the offensive strings, Jones handled a career-high 16% of the designed rushing attempts, ranking No. 6 in the NFL. Plus, only Fields bested Jones’s 10% scramble rate.

The fifth-year QB earned himself a nice payday, but his underlying data suggests he probably won’t ever be much more than a placeholder in the passing game. Jones ranks below the NFL average in PFF pass grade (71.1), YPA (6.8), and TDs per attempt (3.2%). However, the Giants added Darren Waller via trade and drafted Jalin Hyatt in the third round, providing room for improvement. 

Ultimately, the Giants still have many questions at receiver, but Jones’s ability as a runner in the Daboll attack affords him immediate top-10 potential. While making strides as a passer this late in his career isn’t likely, Jones could push for a top-six season if everything clicks.

Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins

The former first-round pick averaged 297 yards per game, excluding contests where he left the game early due to a concussion. That would have been good for No. 2 in the NFL, behind only Mahomes.

Tagovailoa averaged 20.6 points across those contests, and Miami is bringing back the same core of explosive playmakers in the Mike McDaniel scheme. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, he has the most explosive starting duo, and the Dolphins added speedster Devon Achane to the backfield, who could help tack on additional easy yards. 

The Dolphins ranked 24th in non-overtime plays per game. They love to drain the play clock, similar to the 49ers’ attack, but ultimately finished slightly above average in dropbacks per game (12th) thanks to their preference for passing in all game scripts.

• Leading by four-plus points: 57% (+8)
• Within three points: 63% (+4)
• Trailing by four-plus points: 70% (+2)

While there is some risk for Tagovailoa if the Dolphins lean more into the run, they win via efficiency. No other QB bested his 8.9 yards per attempt (YPA) last season. Plus, the Dolphins’ best offensive players are their WRs.

Tagovailoa isn’t part of the rushing attack, so he must do his damage via the air, which, paired with his concussion history, makes him slightly overpriced versus Geno Smith. However, there is no denying the upside if 100% healthy in 2023.

Dak Prescott | Cowboys

Prescott posted his second-worst PFF pass grade (68.6) and second-worst fantasy points per game of his career. Pair that with Mike McCarthy’s comments about running the ball more, and the vibes around Prescott aren’t great.

While the switch from Kellen Moore to McCarthy as play caller comes with risk, there isn’t much room for Dallas to run the ball more. Since 2006, last season was his most run-heavy season ever, and the team didn’t invest much in free agency or the draft behind Tony Pollard—a player they have mentioned protecting from a huge workload.

Of course, McCarthy could slow down the tempo. Dallas ranked No. 1 in remaining play clock in neutral situations at 11.6 seconds. Still, even then, it is tough to imagine too much of a drop in total plays given McCarthy’s career average of 64.5 excluding overtime—right in line with their 64.7 last year. 

Will the Cowboys remain committed to a balanced attack? Probably. Will they run more than last year? Doubtful. If anything, the most likely outcome is slightly more passing in 2023.

Having said all of that, we can’t expect a pass-first offense right now in Dallas, so Prescott will likely need to do more damage via efficiency over volume. To help the cause, Dallas traded for Brandin Cooks, and they should have a healthier Michael Gallup.

After a rough 2021 coming off of a gruesome ankle injury, Prescott was on pace for 250 yards rushing last season. That is much closer to the 305-yard average we saw over his first four seasons.

I considered dropping Prescott a tier below, but his demonstrated floor is 17.5 points per game, and he has two recent seasons over 21 points per game. So, he gets the benefit of the doubt.

Tier 6 – Pocket passers with weapons

Kirk Cousins | Vikings

If Cousins had 250- to 350-yard rushing upside, he would have made Tier 5 thanks to his fleet of weapons: Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison. He is a lock for 4,250 passing yards and 30ish TDs.

The Vikings ranked No. 5 in dropback rate in leading, close, and trailing game scripts last year, and we should see more of the same in 2023. 

He has three consecutive top-12 finishes but has only reached 20 points per game once in his career. Cousins has never enjoyed a crazy TD efficiency year—he is always around 5% on a per-attempt basis. If that ever breaks in his favor—and he is due—he could make fantasy managers very happy.

Jared Goff | Lions

Not having 2021 first-rounder Jameson Williams for the first six weeks of the season is a setback for Goff, but Amon-Ra St. Brown will carry the load until then.

 While rookie TEs don’t usually provide much fantasy value, Detroit loves their early-second-rounder Sam LaPorta out of Iowa. Jahmyr Gibbs’s closest comps based on the Rookie RB Super Model were Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey, thanks to Gibbs’s high-end receiving chops.

The Lions passed the ball below average in most situations in 2022, but we could see a slight shift once Williams returns—especially if LaPorta or Gibbs comes through early.

Arbitrage: Dak Prescott

Russell Wilson | Broncos

Wilson bombed in 2022, averaging a career-low 16 points per game. That means two of his three worst fantasy performances have come in the last two seasons, making us wonder if the end is near.

Dec 4, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) looks to pass in the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

On the positive side, Wilson showed a spark at the end of the season, posting 24 or more points in three of his last four outings. 

Additionally, Sean Payton will take over the offense, and the Broncos have multiple options that could step up in the receiving department in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, Tim Patrick, and Greg Dulcich. While none of these players have officially broken out, all of them have flashed upside, and Denver only needs a couple of them to take the next step.

Wilson scored 23.7 points per game in 2020, so the hope is he still has some of that magic, but he will need to regain his form on the ground. That season he gobbled up 511 yards. Over the last two years, that average dropped to 231.

The Broncos won’t likely deploy a pass-heavy attack this season, but Wilson could regain top-12 form thanks to the coaching changes and surrounding talent. Without back-to-back down seasons, he would rank in Tier 5 next to Prescott and Smith.

Tier 7 – Life is a gamble

Kyler Murray | Arizona

Murray is recovering from a late-season ACL injury that could keep him off the field early in 2023. Once he does return, the injury could limit his ability as a rusher. 

If things are going terribly in Arizona, there is a chance the former No. 1 overall NFL selection doesn’t take the field, but that is total speculation. The upshot of selecting Murray in fantasy is simple—he could be back to health when you need him most in the playoffs. He is the only other QB outside of Allen who reached 35 passing attempts and 6 rushing attempts per game in 2022.

Trey Lance | 49ers

The former first-rounder seems to be in the doghouse, and there is a chance he doesn’t play a snap at QB. 

Brock Purdy played well at the end of last season but might not be recovered from an elbow injury to start the season. While Sam Darnold is getting praise, he is still Sam Darnold. 

There is a chance Lance wins the starting job in camp and provides the 49ers with the dual threat they dreamed of in the 2021 draft. Lance is a tough best-ball selection because he could give you donuts across the board, but there aren’t many other rushing-upside candidates late in drafts.

Tier 8 – Shiny new toys

Bryce Young | Panthers

Young doesn’t have any high-end weapons, but his closest comp for me was Burrow, minus the size. 

At Alabama, Young was tremendous as a downfield passer and played well against disguised coverages and pressure. Most importantly, he can make plays outside of structure in the scramble drill. Those are traits we see among the best QBs in today’s game. 

Given the receiving corps, some of those late throws outside of structure could turn into scrambles in his rookie season—Young was recruited as the No. 1 dual-threat QB in 2020.

C.J. Stroud | Texans

Stroud was great from a clean pocket in college but struggled against pressure and disguised coverages. Additionally, he wasn’t strong outside of structure and was the No. 2 pro-style QB in the 2020 class. 

The Texans don’t have many weapons around Stroud, so he will likely need time to develop.

Jordan Love | Packers

The former late-first-rounder sat behind Rodgers for the last three seasons, so it is hard to know what to expect. Referring to his collegiate profile doesn’t help us much—he didn’t face Power Five competition at Utah State. 

However, draft capital is the strongest predictor of future success in the NFL, and getting stuck behind a future Hall-of-Famer is a pretty good excuse for a lack of playing time. Christian Watson provides Love with a weapon that can score from anywhere on the field, and the team also added Luke Musgrave and Jayden Reed in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Do you believe in Jordan Love? You can bet on Love and the Packers to win the NFC North at +400 on BetMGM, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if it does not win. Sign up below and start betting today!

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer

Tier 9 – Last call for starters

If you are in the late rounds and need a QB2 or QB3, these players should all be starters. Some could find their way into Tier 6 during the season if things break their way.

• Derek Carr | Saints
• Matthew Stafford | Rams
• Jimmy Garoppolo | Raiders
• Kenny Pickett | Steelers
• Mac Jones | Patriots

Tier 10 – Battling, ahead in the count

These QBs are in a battle for the starting role but are considered the favorites heading into camp. We will need to adjust as we learn more. None are advisable selections for now in best ball unless you are out of options, but they are worthy late-rounders in deep superflex formats.

• Brock Purdy | 49ers
• Desmond Ridder | Falcons
• Sam Howell | Commanders
• Ryan Tannehill | Titans
• Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers

Tier 11 – Battling, behind in the count

These QBs are in a battle for the starting role but are considered the underdogs heading into camp. We will adjust as we learn more. Unless you are in a deep superflex league, there are no advisable selections for now.

• Will Levis | Titans
• Jacoby Brissett | Commanders
• Taylor Heinicke | Falcons
• Kyle Trask | Buccaneers