Dwain McFarland's 2023 RB Tiers

Ranking players by position is integral to fantasy football preparation, but grouping them into tiers is crucial to identifying the value you might be leaving in the draft room.

For example, if you're on the clock and looking at several quarterbacks in the same tier, waiting until the next round could make sense—someone equally as worthy may be available with your next pick. Tiers can also help group players with similar expectations based on upside and floor, which is great for spotting overpriced players, values, and arbitrage plays.

Rushing pedigree:	Rushing performance peripherals:	Target pedigree:	Receiving performance peripherals:	Offense quality:	Rushing volume:
Brian Robinson	16%	2.7	9%	14%	0.72
3-year RB1 average	19%	3.1	12%	20%	1.29
3-year RB2 average	18%	2.9	11%	18%	1.07
3-year RB3 average	16%	2.9	10%	17%	0.97

Antonio Gibson is the favorite to take passing-down work, and rookie RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. could challenge for early-down snaps if Robinson falters.

Nov 13, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert (24) during warmups before the game against the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Tier 11

Khalil Herbert | Bears – offers an RB1-worthy talent profile as a runner but performed like a backup in the receiving game. He will battle D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson (plus Justin Fields) for rushing attempts.
Samaje Perine | Broncos – backup level rusher, but has RB1-worthy receiving chops. With Williams recovering, he could handle a heavy workload early in the year, and Sean Payton is the master of RB targets. Priority draft target.
Antonio Gibson | Commanders – still boasts an explosive RB1-worthy passing performance profile, and Robinson wasn’t great in the early-down role last year.
Jerick McKinnon | Chiefs – the lead passing-down option on a pass-first offense with big upside. McKinnon offers an RB1-worthy receiving talent profile.
Damien Harris | Bills – could lock down the early-down role, but not likely to see much passing game work. The upside scenario comes from a double-digit rushing TD season. The Bills' offense is good enough, but they love to pass, and Josh Allen will snipe.
Jamaal Williams | Saints – lead candidate to handle the early-down work and could see a big workload if Kamara misses time due to suspension. However, his talent profile screams backup-level RB. Kendre Miller might surprise.

Tier 12

Elijah Mitchell | 49ers – RB1-worthy performance profile rushing, but stuck behind CMC. Could provide a few spike weeks and offers contingency upside if McCaffrey misses time.
Alexander Mattison | Vikings – borderline RB1-worthy performance profile and could surprise if Dalvin Cook moves on. Given Cook's recent regression, Mattison could also push for more of the early-down work.
Tyler Allgeier | Falcons – got going late last season and posted RB1-worthy performance data with a 24% MTF and 3.6 YCO. He wasn’t a factor in the passing game. In a run-first offense, he could have spike week value and offers contingency upside if Robinson misses time.
Jaylen Warren | Steelers – limited sample, but RB1-worthy performance profile as a runner and receiver. Last year, he took over LDD work. His profile suggests he might be better than Harris, and he has a clear-cut path to an every-down role should Harris suffer an injury. ADP is too low—a priority draft target.

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Tier 13

Roschon Johnson | Bears – explosive runner in college who will fight for reps in the Chicago rotation.
D’Onta Foreman | Bears – posted RB3-worthy rushing performance numbers but wasn’t good enough to run away with the job in Carolina. Backup-level option in the receiving game.
Raheem Mostert | Dolphins – registered RB1-worthy rushing performance numbers but will be 31 this season, and Miami resigned Jeff Wilson and added Achane in the draft. He has spike-week upside in a rotation but has high-end RB2 contingency value if injuries thin the depth chart.
Jeff Wilson Jr. | Dolphins – borderline RB2 rushing profile and a backup-worthy receiving performance profile. Battling in a committee.

Tier 14

Kendre Miller | Saints – rookie could challenge Jamaal Williams for the lead early-down role, given how poor Williams graded out as a rusher. He offers additional value if Kamara is suspended.
Tyjae Spears | Titans – the clear-cut No. 2 behind an aging Henry in a run-first offense. The third-round pick is a priority target in later rounds.
Tank Bigsby | Jaguars – third-round rookie could battle for short yardage work in an ascending offense from the jump. If Etienne goes down, he would be the favorite to lead the backfield. Priority draft target.
Devin Singletary | Texans – RB2-worthy performance as a rusher but not a factor in the passing attack. Texans might not be very good, but Singletary likely rotates and is the clear-cut No. 2.
Chase Brown | Bengals – the coaching staff is talking up Trayveon Williams, but he hasn’t shown much, and my money is on Brown leading the backfield if Mixon is suspended or goes down.

Tier 15

Leonard Fournette | Free Agent – backup-worthy rushing performance profile, but RB1-worthy receiving profile. Demonstrated pedigree as a high-volume runner and passing-down option. The most complete free agent back.
Kareem Hunt | Free Agent – took a step back in efficiency in 2022, but as recently as 2021, had a high-end receiving profile. He will be 28 but doesn’t have a ton of touches.
Ezekiel Elliott | Free Agent – the worst option of the remaining free agents. Zeke registered backup-level performance scores across the board. He might steal some early-down work somewhere, but it is hard to imagine much upside without the perfect landing spot where he can punch in a dozen TDs.

Tier 16

Zach Evans | Rams – doesn’t carry the same draft capital as Spears and Bigsby (Round 6), but the former five-star recruit was the most explosive Power Five rusher in the class with 21% of his career attempts going for 10-plus yards. Given Akers’s poor rushing performance scores, Evans might surprise and carve out a significant role. Great last-round pick.
Gus Edwards | Ravens – the clear-cut No. 2 behind Dobbins has historically rotated with the No. 1. Todd Monken could change that dynamic, but Edwards is going too late in drafts. Priority late-round target when you need another RB.
Jerome Ford | Browns – the Browns chose to spend a fifth-round pick on Ford in 2022 despite having a loaded backfield. Now he finds himself with an unencumbered path to the No. 2 role.

Glossary:

Age = player’s age when the season starts in September
PPR/Gm = points per reception; points per game
Rush share = player’s share of rushing attempts in regular season games played
SDD = short down and distance (less than 3 yards to go on 2nd, 3rd and 4th down)
LDD = long down and distance (3-plus yards to go on 3rd or 4th down)
MTF = missed tackles forced rate
YCO = average yards after contact
EXP/Att = 10-plus yard rushing attempts per attempt
RR/DB = routes run per dropback (also known as route participation)
Target share = player’s share of targets in regular season games played
TPRR = targets per route run
YPRR = yards per route run
aDOT = average depth of target
Deep = targets of 20-plus yards
YAC = yards after the catch
EXP/Tgt = 15-plus yard receptions per target
Proj Rush Att/Gm = projected regulation rushing attempts for team
Top 48 RBs = number of RBs from team going inside the top 48
Team Proj Wins = current win totals from BetMGM
Close = score within three points
Trailing = behind by four-plus points
Leading = ahead by four-plus points
RB1-worthy = top 12
RB2-worthy = 13 to 24
RB3-worthy = 25 to 36