Dwain McFarland's 2023 Fantasy Football WR Tiers

Ranking players by position is integral to fantasy football preparation, but grouping them into tiers is crucial to identifying the value you might be leaving in the draft room.

For example, if you're on the clock and looking at several quarterbacks in the same tier, waiting until the next round could make sense—someone equally as worthy may be available with your next pick. Tiers can also help group players with similar expectations based on upside and floor, which is great for spotting overpriced players, values and arbitrage plays.

ADP = Underdog (best ball, half-point PPR)

Target pedigree:	Performance peripherals:	Offense quality:	Passing volume:
Mike Evans	18%	37%	1.81
3-year WR1 average	25%	31%	2.28
3-year WR2 average	22%	28%	1.92
3-year WR3 average	20%	27%	1.78

Tier 10 – Upside WR3s with a wide-open path

Treylon Burks | Titans – battled injuries throughout his rookie season but his 21% TPRR and 1.75 YPRR were in the WR3 range, which is a good sign in Year 1. The QB situation should be improved between a healthy Ryan Tannehill and second-rounder Will Levis, and the depth chart is wide open. Burks is a PRIORITY target at ADP.
Kadarius Toney | Chiefs – could not secure significant playing time despite the Chiefs' needs at the position. However, he was electric on the field with a 23% TPRR. If he secures an every-down role, he has WR1 upside in a pass-first offense with Patrick Mahomes.

Tier 11 – Young Upside WR4s

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks – the ADP hasn’t cooled enough, but Smith-Njigba was the No. 1 graded prospect in the WR Rookie Super Model. He could force the Seahawks to pass more and utilize more three-WR sets.
Jordan Addison | Vikings – the first-rounder should quickly secure the No. 2 role over K.J. Osborn. Addison was an early-breakout target hog who could surprise as a WR3 with upside in Year 1.
George Pickens | Steelers – delivered a backup-worthy target share (15%), but his 28% air yard share was WR2-worthy. Pickens is a blast to watch play but is slightly overpriced, given Johnson and Pat Freiermuth’s solid profiles and questions at QB.
Rashod Bateman | Ravens – only ran 120 routes thanks to an injury but registered a 23% TPRR and 2.38 YPRR. Using the Rookie Super Model, he would have been the No. 2 prospect in this year’s class using the Rookie Super Model. Bateman is my favorite Ravens WR in drafts right now.
Quentin Johnston | Chargers – Johnston offers a unique blend of downfield prowess and yards after the catch. He will battle Joshua Palmer for the No. 3 role and could surprise by surpassing one of Williams or Allen for the No. 2 role. If a starter goes down, Johnston could provide WR2 upside in a quality pass-first offense.
Zay Flowers | Ravens – the first-round will battle for a starting spot, but the Ravens have been known to rotate skill players. Flowers has WR3 upside and is preferred over Beckham Jr.

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Tier 12 – Veteran WR4s

Gabriel Davis | Bills – suffered an ankle injury early last season that caused him to miss Week 2, but averaged a 20% target share and 31% air yard share after the bye week. Could have a WR3-worthy skillset and operate as the No. 2 in a pass-first quality offense.
Brandin Cooks | Cowboys – will be 30 this season, but has been around the WR/3 thresholds over the past two seasons. He should be the No. 2 in Dallas.
Courtland Sutton | Broncos – profiles offers WR3-worthy talent with a 21% target share and 31% air yards share. Will battle it out in with multiple options in what could be a spread out balanced attack in Denver.
Michael Thomas | Saints – hard to get excited about Thomas after another injury season. With his low aDOT and loss of explosiveness (14% explosive target rate) he will need a ton of targets to make us regret not investing. That isn’t likely with his borderline WR3 talent profile (19% target share and 18% air yards).

Tier 13 – Upside WR5s

Jameson Williams | Lions – will miss the first six games; didn’t get to see much of Williams as a rookie since he was recovering from an ACL injury. However, he he was an 85th percentile in the WR Rookie Super Model. That would have been second-best this season. He has a good shot to be the No. 2 behind the Sun God and has WR2 upside late in the season.
Elijah Moore | Browns – Year 2 was an unexpected face plant for a prospect that graded out highly in college and in Year 1. His 10% target share and 16% air yard share were terrible and his peripherals were just as bad. The comps for this pattern with Cordarrelle Patterson, Laviska Shenault Jr. and Devin Funchess, but the sample is too small to say anything definitively. Moore has at least flashed WR2-level talent already and could climb as high as the No. 1 for the Browns if everything clicks with Watson.
Skyy Moore | Chiefs – limited to a lowly 30% route participation despite the underperforming WR room in 2022. His 19% TPRR and 70.0 PFF receiving grade were good enough to keep him on the radar especially given the Chiefs lack of offseason moves outside of a Round 2 selection on Rashee Rice.

Tier 14 – Veteran WR5s

Odell Beckham Jr. | Ravens – more of a borderline WR3 profile at this point in his career and must battle Bateman and Flowers for routes in a balanced offense where Mark Andrews will be the undisputed No. 1 option. My least favorite Raven at ADP.
Jakobi Meyers | Raiders – a near WR2 profile behind an aging alpha isn’t a bad thing to have as depth on your roster.
Allen Lazard | Jets – offers a WR3-worthy profile who is a plus player inside the 10-yard line who could be the No. 2 on the Jets.
Zay Jones | Jaguars – a WR3-worthy talent profile on an offense that could be going places in 2023. The offense is getting crowded with the addition of Ridley.
Darnell Mooney | Bears – garnered a WR2 worthy target share and air yards before his injury. An underrated player but now must battle Moore on a run-first offense with QB questions.
JuJu Smith-Schuster | Patriots – a backup-level target earner who doesn’t gobble up air yards. Smith-Schuster could be the Patriots best option, but that doesn’t mean he will suddenly become good again, 2018 was a long time ago.
Tyler Boyd | Bengals – the 29-year-old has slipped over the last two years. Only garnered a 15% target share last season in games where one of Chase or Higgins were missing. Resides on one of the best pass-first offenses, making him a stack piece but don’t overpay for a backup-level talent, let it come to you.

Tier 15 – Rookie WR6s

Jonathan Mingo | Panthers – didn’t score great in the WR Rookie Super Model but one of his comps was fellow Ole Miss alumn, D.K. Metcalf. The Panthers have a clear runway to the No. 1 spot. The second-rounder and Bryce Young – the best passer in this class – will look to establish early rapport.
Rashee Rice | Chiefs – The Chiefs have struggled to evaluate collegiate WRs outside of Tyreek Hill and Rice was a subpar prospect in the Rookie Super Model but garnered second-round capital on an elite offense where he will have a shot to challenge for a starting role.
Jalin Hyatt | Giants – had first-round buzz ahead of the draft but feel to Round 3. Hyatt has game-changing speed and could immediately challenge for the No. 1 WR role as a deep threat. He will need to prove he can play on the outside without the protection of off-ball alignments to earn an everydown role.
Jayden Reed | Packers – sliding too far past the rest of these options in drafts considering how much more important talent is than landing spot. Reed grades out ahead of Mingo, Rice and Hyatt after going in Round 2. However, concerns about the QB have him going 20 to 40 picks later. Reed is a better prospect than Romeo Doubs and played outside in college – he will challenge for more than slot reps. He is a primary target late in drafts.

Tier 16 – Veteran WR6s

Nico Collins | Texans – flashed WR3-worthy TPRR and WR1-worthy air yards share and the Texans depth chart is wide open. Could be the No. 1 option for newcomer C.J. Stroud and surprise with WR3 upside.
Romeo Doubs | Packers – flashed for moments as a rookie but never put it all together. Doubs will battle second-rounder Jayden Reed for routes.
Michael Gallup | Cowboys – had a disaster season coming off of a late-2021 knee injury, but exhibited WR3 traits early in his career. If back to form, could press Cooks for the No. 2 role in a quality offense.
Donovan Peoples-Jones | Browns – offers a backup target-earning profile but has some air yards goodness that can pop from time to time.
D.J. Chark | Panthers – flashed WR2 skills for a brief moment in Year 2 but hasn’t done so since. Still has deep threat ability though with 29% of targets coming 20-plus yards downfield.

Tier 17 – Young WR7s

Alec Pierce | Colts – didn’t check any major boxes as a prospect or as a rookie, but has second-round capital and will battle for the No. 2 role.
Rashid Shaheed | Saints – undrafted free agent who flashed with a 2.59 YPRR.
Marvin Mims | Broncos – graded out as the best non-Round 1 WR in the Super Model and Sean Payton is looking to shakeup the offense. The WR room is crowded but Mims is great on deep crossers, where Tyler Lockett used to make his money with Russell Wilson.
Rondale Moore | Cardinals – flashed some WR3 traits but wasn’t able to stay on the field (again) in 2022. The starting No. 3 option for the Cardinals to start the season and could gain ground if Hopkins moves.
Josh Downs | Colts – was a strong collegiate producer who fell to Round 3 in the NFL draft. He should operate from the slot and challenge for the No. 2 spot in terms of targets, but the Colts will be run heavy and might not play that much 11 personnel.
Cedric Tilliman | Browns – the third-rounder will battle Peoples-Jones and Moore for snaps after Cooper.
John Metchie III | Texans – the 2022 second-rounder will challenge Collins and Robert Woods and rookie Tank Dell for playing time. The depth chart in Houston is wide open.
Tyquan Thornton | Patriots – performed sub-optimally in 2022 but there isn’t much talent outside in New England, leaving the door open for a starting role.
Wan’Dale Robinson | Giants – recovering from a Week 11 ACL injury but currently expected to be ready for Week 1. Flashed a WR2-worthy TPRR and should be the starting slot WR as the season progresses.

Tier 18 – Veteran WR7s

Isaiah Hodgins | Giants – a backkup profile that will battle for starting reps in New York.
Tim Patrick | Broncos – a WR3 profile that could surprise by capturing a starting role if Sutton falters and Mims isn’t ready.
Chase Claypool | Bears – a former WR2 profile who had a forgettable 2023 season. Cold be the No. 2 in a run-first attack.
Curtis Samuel | Commanders – was the No. 1 option early last year before and could provide needed bye-week production and spike weeks for best ball.
Adam Thielen | Vikings – declining veteran going far too early in drafts. Theilen could provide some early season magic, but his price tag should be Round 15, not 12.
Robert Woods | Texans – still hanging around WR3-level thresholds and just got paid by Houston. A favorite to begin the season as a starter and is free.
Mecole Hardman | Jets – won’t play a fulltime role but could offer big-play spike weeks as a move-around gadget option.
Corey Davis | Jets – could end up as the primary option in three WR sets over Hardman who is more of a gadget player.

Glossary:

Age = player’s age when the season starts in September

PPR/Gm = points per reception; points per game

Rush share = player’s share of rushing attempts in regular season games played

SDD = short down and distance (less than 3 yards to go on 2nd, 3rd and 4th down)

LDD = long down and distance (3-plus yards to go on 3rd or 4th down)

MTF = missed tackles forced rate

YCO = average yards after contact

EXP/Att = 10-plus yard rushing attempts per attempt

RR/DB = routes run per dropback (also known as route participation)

Target share = player’s targets divided by team pass attempts in regular season games played

TPRR = targets per route run

YPRR = yards per route run

aDOT = average depth of target

Air yards = aDOT multiplied by targets

Air yards share = share of team’s air yards

WOPR = weighted opportunity rating that combines the share of team targets and air yards (1.5*target share)+(0.7*air yards share)

Deep = targets of 20-plus yards

YAC = yards after the catch

EXP/Tgt = 15-plus yard receptions per target

Team Proj Rush Att/Gm = projected regulation rushing attempts for team

Team Proj DB/Gm = projected regulation dropbacks for team

Top 48 RBs = number of RBs from team going inside the top 48

Top 36 WRs = number of WRs from team going inside the top 36

Top 12 TEs = number of TEs from team going inside the top 12

Team Proj Wins = current win totals from BetMGM

Close = score within three points

Trailing = behind by four-plus points

Leading = ahead by four-plus points

RB1-worthy = top 12

RB2-worthy = 13 to 24

RB3-worthy = 25 to 36