Eagles @ Jets Week 6 Game Preview
Chris Allen breaks down the Week 6 matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
If I squint, I see plenty of fantasy value in this game…for both teams.
I mean, sure, I’m seeing stars due to straining my eyes. But I can tell myself (and you) a story about why you should start Garrett Wilson.
Do I deserve a gold medal for the mental gymnastics required to create this narrative? Absolutely.
Is there any data to support my claims? Absolutely not. Well, maybe. Either way, the Eagles are 7-point road favorites. It doesn’t look good for me. But before I start on a fictitious rant about Zach Wilson potentially redeeming himself in Week 6, let’s stick to nonfiction. Actually, Philadelphia’s offense falls more into the horror category if you’re looking at it from the Jets’ perspective.
Jalen Hurts was tough to gauge heading into Week 5. Fantasy-wise, nobody had any problems. He was a top-5 QB in two games and ranked 12th in a third. But over a third (38.4%) of his production came from his rushing. Plus, he was below-average in passing success rate and EPA per play. But after looking at how the receiving workload has shaken out this year, it’s easy to see why Hurts’ metrics look delinquent:
- A.J. Brown: 35.5% (target share), 47.7% (air yard share), 30.9% (TPRR)
- DeVonta Smith: 24.0%, 32.9%, 19.3%
- Dallas Goedert: 15.7%, 10.2%, 13.6%
And, no. These metrics aren’t significantly different than the first month of the ’22 season. Regardless, A.J. Brown has run fewer routes out of the slot this year and still commands the most looks (second-highest target share amongst all WRs) from Hurts.
Sep 14, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) passes the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
As a result, Hurts averaged 9.8 air yards per attempt and threw to the perimeter on 63.7% of his throws. Accordingly, his down-to-down metrics took a hit. But he found his rhythm on Sunday.
Week 5 was his first 300-yard passing game, with major contributions from Goedert (finally) and Brown. Smart teams facing the Jets have honed in on their WR1 for big performances (Stefon Diggs – 33.3% target share, 13-102-1; CeeDee Lamb – 35.1%, 13-143-0; Travis Kelce – 31.0%, 9-60-0). So Brown should remain in our lineups.
New York’s coverage has been suffocating enough to warrant looking at other options for Smith, but he’s liable to pop off given his downfield usage and second-most red zone targets. And despite the Jets only allowing a single 100-yard rusher and just one score on the ground (both to Isiah Pacheco), D’Andre Swift remains a Top 20 option in Week 6.
OK, let me see if I can make this story of the Jets being fantasy-relevant a reality.
Does New York have a WR1 that can separate? Oh, yes. Garrett Wilson averages 2.6 yards of separation (tied with Stefon Diggs and right behind Amari Cooper). Since Z Wilson took over as the starter, G Wilson accounts for 45.7% of the team’s air yards.
Is there a good RB on the team? Breece Hall just hit a career-high in rushing yards last week and took over 68.8% of the team’s totes.
Are any ancillary pass-catchers of note? Well, Tyler Conklin has the same air yard share as Mark Andrews (16.3%).
OK, so what’s the problem? The kid from BYU.
Zach Wilson’s W4 performance on SNF was commendable. But it also looked like a step forward, too. Wilson’s 291 air yards ranked ninth-most among his 28 starts. And he was accurate (78.6% adjusted completion rate) with more play-action dropbacks. But then it all came back down in Week 5.
His play-action rate dropped to 12.1%, with his tenth-fewest air yards thrown in a single game (181). In what was OC Nathaniel Hackett’s revenge game, all they asked Wilson was not to lose the game. And now, they’ve lost their best offensive lineman.
Wilson dealing with pressure is, what the kids call, a tough scene. He’s 31st out of 36 QBs in passing success rate under duress with the ninth-most sacks. Unfortunately, the Eagles are sixth in pass-rush win rate with the eighth-most sacks through five weeks. The pieces are there for the Jets, but the QB will always be a problem.
Wilson sits at WR28 in our rankings against the Eagles. Their secondary has been beat downfield (see: Nacua, Puka) but required an aggressive passer with pocket mobility (don’t see: Wilson, Zach). Hall’s volume as a rusher and receiver is the only thing we can rely on for fantasy. And as a mid-range RB2, it’s about as optimistic as we can get for Week 6.