Falcons @ Panthers Week 15 Game Preview

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

This game comes at the right time for a Falcons team that is very much in the playoff hunt. Atlanta is in a three-way tie for the division lead in the NFC South, so every game is crucial down the stretch.

It is hard to dream up a better matchup for this Falcons offense that wants to dominate on the ground. The Panthers have been the NFL’s worst run defense by a wide margin this season, so it is reasonable to expect Arthur Smith to pound the rock early and often in this matchup. 

Fantasy managers got the rare explosive passing performance from the Atlanta offense in Week 14, with Desmond Ridder throwing for 334 yards and Drake London putting up a dominant 10-172 stat line. There was even a Kyle Pitts sighting as he popped up for a TD. 

Even though the Carolina pass defense is nothing to fear, I’m highly skeptical of a repeat day for Ridder as his home/road splits have been drastic this season, and the soft run defense means Atlanta is unlikely to need to throw the ball. London and Pitts are low-end starters at their positions in this matchup, but you probably have better options if your fantasy team is still in contention at this point.

It’s a different story in the backfield, where Bijan Robinson is one of the best RB plays of the week. Since Week 10, the rookie has averaged 16.5 carries and 5 targets per game, and I fully expect him to top 20 touches again in Carolina.

There isn’t as much fantasy goodness to be found on the Panthers' offense as they rank 31st in passing offense and 30th in scoring offense this season. Unfortunately, there haven’t been all that many signs of improvement either, as Bryce Young extended his streak to six straight games below 200 yards passing, and they managed just six points on the road in New Orleans last week.

The one small positive nugget I could come up with is that Young’s average depth of throw has been above 10 yards in each of his last three games, something he only did once in his first 10 games. 

That deeper passing has resulted in a usage spike for Jonathan Mingo, who has averaged 8.3 targets and 106 air yards per game over that three-game stretch. He shouldn’t really be started in redraft, but Mingo does make for an intriguing punt play in DFS contests each week in the hope that he and Young will eventually get on the same page.

Chuba Hubbard appears to have locked down the lead-back role after handling a second consecutive week with more than 20 rush attempts. He is unlikely to deliver a week-winning performance, but you could do a lot worse than his guaranteed volume, especially in standard-scoring leagues. 

The Falcons opened as three-point road favorites, which is probably more of a function of the low game total rather than any real doubt about who wins this game. Atlanta should run all over the Panthers defense and control the clock on their way to one of the least exciting (but most important) wins of Week 15.