Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 10.
Matthew Freedman uses his projections to highlight his favorite bets to target on the NFL Week 10 slate, including games he's monitoring and more.
Oh my.
Some people like to go to the spa and take milk baths.
Last week, I got taken to the cleaners in an absolute bloodbath. I didn’t like it — but it happened.
I’ve been my absolute worst this year betting against the spread. When I get closing line value, I barely lose. When the market moves against me, I’m nowhere close to winning.
What do we do?
We soldier on.
Across all my bets, I’m still close to positive overall for the year thanks to my recent prop streak, which is somewhat miraculous considering the early trench I dug myself into.
We don’t need to win every battle. We don’t need to win on all fronts.
We just need to win the war.
If I can manage for the second half of the season and the playoffs to be a little less terrible with my ATS betting, that will go a long way to getting me to profitability for the year. That’s the goal.
Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.
- My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
- My QB value chart (as of Wednesday morning).
- A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
- Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
- Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
- A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.
Freedman’s Week 10 Projections Against the Spread
I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive.
The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 10, ordered according to kickoff time.
| Teams | Location | Opponent | Projection | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Away | CHI | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| CHI | Home | CAR | -3.4 | -3.5 |
| IND | Neutral | NE | 0.1 | -1.5 |
| NE | Neutral | IND | -0.1 | 1.5 |
| GB | Away | PIT | 4.6 | 3 |
| PIT | Home | GB | -4.6 | -3 |
| NO | Away | MIN | -1.9 | -2.5 |
| MIN | Home | NO | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| HOU | Away | CIN | 8.4 | 6.5 |
| CIN | Home | HOU | -8.4 | -6.5 |
| CLE | Away | BAL | 6.5 | 6 |
| BAL | Home | CLE | -6.5 | -6 |
| TEN | Away | TB | 1.5 | 1 |
| TB | Home | TEN | -1.5 | -1 |
| SF | Away | JAX | -1.4 | -3 |
| JAX | Home | SF | 1.4 | 3 |
| DET | Away | LAC | -1.5 | -2.5 |
| LAC | Home | DET | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| ATL | Away | ARI | -0.4 | -1.5 |
| ARI | Home | ATL | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| WAS | Away | SEA | 7.6 | 6.5 |
| SEA | Home | WAS | -7.6 | -6.5 |
| NYG | Away | DAL | 15.6 | 16.5 |
| DAL | Home | NYG | -15.6 | -16.5 |
| NYJ | Away | LV | -0.9 | -1.5 |
| LV | Home | NYJ | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| DEN | Away | BUF | 6.8 | 7.5 |
| BUF | Home | DEN | -6.8 | -7.5 |
Projections and consensus odds as of 6:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, Nov. 8. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.
Freedman’s Week 10 QB Value Chart
Here’s my updated QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of the starter to his backup. In creating this chart, I’ve relied partially on the work of Ben Fawkes and Robby Greer.
Team | Starter | Backup | Starter ATS Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Patrick Mahomes | Blaine Gabbert | 7.7 |
| BUF | Josh Allen | Kyle Allen | 6.8 |
| CIN | Joe Burrow | Jake Browning | 6.7 |
| LAC | Justin Herbert | Easton Stick | 6.4 |
| BAL | Lamar Jackson | Tyler Huntley | 6.0 |
| NYG | Daniel Jones | Tommy DeVito | 5.9 |
| DAL | Dak Prescott | Cooper Rush | 5.6 |
| ARI | Kyler Murray | Clayton Tune | 4.9 |
| CLE | Baker Mayfield | Kyle Trask | 4.6 |
| MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | Mike White | 4.6 |
| PHI | Jalen Hurts | Marcus Mariota | 4.5 |
| IND | Gardner Minshew | Sam Ehlinger | 4.2 |
| JAX | Trevor Lawrence | C.J. Beathard | 4.0 |
| CLE | Deshaun Watson | P.J. Walker | 4.0 |
| GB | Jordan Love | Sean Clifford | 3.7 |
| DEN | Russell Wilson | Jarrett Stidham | 3.5 |
| MIN | Kirk Cousins | Joshua Dobbs | 3.5 |
| CHI | Justin Fields | Tyson Bagent | 3.2 |
| DET | Jared Goff | Teddy Bridgewater | 2.9 |
| NYJ | Zach Wilson | Tim Boyle | 2.5 |
| SF | Brock Purdy | Sam Darnold | 2.4 |
| LAR | Matthew Stafford | Carson Wentz | 2.4 |
| HOU | C.J. Stroud | Davis Mills | 1.8 |
| NYJ | Geno Smith | Drew Lock | 1.7 |
| NE | Mac Jones | Bailey Zappe | 1.7 |
| NO | Derek Carr | Jameis Winston | 1.3 |
| ATL | Taylor Heinicke | Desmond Ridder | 0.4 |
| TEN | Will Levis | Ryan Tannehill | -0.1 |
| PIT | Kenny Pickett | Mitchell Trubisky | -0.4 |
| CAR | Bryce Young | Andy Dalton | -0.9 |
| WAS | Sam Howell | Jacoby Brissett | -1.1 |
| LV | Aidan O'Connell | Jimmy Garoppolo | -1.7 |
A few notable items.
- Despite his heroic performance last week, Joshua Dobbs is still a significant downgrade from Kirk Cousins (Achilles, IR) — just not as big of one as rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall.
- Getting back Kyler Murray (knee) is huge for the Cardinals. When fully healthy, he’s a +5.9 upgrade on rookie fifth-rounder Clayton Tune, although I expect him to be somewhat limited and rusty this week.
- The gap between Deshaun Watson and P.J. Walker, though significant, continues to diminish — and not in a good way.
- Similarly, Geno Smith is slowly drifting toward Drew Lock.
- Second-round rookie Will Levis is now nearly even with Ryan Tannehill (ankle, benched). With another game, I expect Levis to pull ahead of the veteran.
- Fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell was fine last week in his second start, but he’s now the league’s least valuable starter given that veteran Jimmy Garoppolo is available behind him.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 10 Bets
Here are my favorite bets currently. For all the bets I’ve made for the week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.
- Steelers -3 vs. Packers (-112, DraftKings)
- Bengals -6.5 vs. Texans (-115, BetMGM)
- Jaguars +3 vs. 49ers (-108, DraftKings)
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
Steelers -3 vs. Packers (-112, DraftKings)
The Steelers have traditionally had a strong home-field advantage, and HC Mike Tomlin is 76-63-4 ATS (6.8% ROI, per Action Network) at Acrisure Stadium (under its various names) for his career.
QB Jordan Love has struggled in his first season as a starter, and he could be challenged by a Steelers defense that is No. 9 in EPA (-0.063) and led by EDGE T.J. Watt, one of the leading Defensive Player of the Year candidates.
And Love might be without No. 1 WR Christian Watson (upper body), who exited last week after injuring his back, chest and head all on one play.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Packers could be without key players at all three levels: NT Kenny Clark (shoulder), LB Quay Walker (groin) and FS Rudy Ford (calf).
- Original Bet: -3 (-110)
- Projection: -4.6
- Cutoff: -3 (-125)
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Bengals -6.5 vs. Texans (-115, BetMGM)
I think the Bengals are all the way back on offense and close enough to where they were last year on defense. Against the Bills last week, they looked like the Bengals.
In the offseason, this number was -9.5 and -10 in the lookahead market.
Nov 5, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) celebrates a touchdown throw with tight end Drew Sample (89) in the second quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports
I know that Texans QB C.J. Stroud has been impressive as a rookie and Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (back) is uncertain to play this week because of injury.
But a move through the key number of -7 is just too much.
- Original Bet: -7 (-110)
- Projection: -8.4
- Cutoff: -7 (-125)
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Jaguars +3 vs. 49ers (-108, DraftKings)
Given that both teams should be relatively healthy coming out of the bye, I doubt I’ll need to make any major injury adjustments to this game, and in that case I have the 49ers power rated as +1.5 points better than the Jaguars on a neutral field.
But this isn’t a neutral field: The Jags are at home, and the 49ers need to travel to the East Coast for a game that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.
Based on that, I think this game should be closer to a pick’em than +3.
The Jaguars have an underappreciated defense that ranks No. 3 in EPA (-0.108).
- Original Bet: +3 (-110)
- Projection: +1.4
- Cutoff: +3 (-125)
Week 10 Games That Have My Attention
Patriots +1.5 vs. Colts (in Germany)
The Colts have notable injuries on both sides of the ball, this game is cleanly in the Wong teaser zone and I have this projected close to a pick’em.
Vikings +2.5 vs. Saints
Some sharps like the Saints because of their defense, but I’m showing slight value on the Vikings. That said, I’m not betting them at +2.5. I’m either waiting for +3 or betting them in a teaser — but there’s also a chance I won’t bet them at all.
Ravens -6 vs. Browns
Road underdogs are 21-13 ATS (19.3% ROI) against Ravens QB Lamar Jackson as a home favorite, but AFC North teams are also 15-6 ATS (35.8% ROI) against Browns HC Kevin Stefanski. I think this number could move past -6, just as it did last week with the Ravens vs. Seahawks.
Chargers +2.5 vs. Lions
My gut says Lions. My numbers say Chargers, who are positioned perfectly for a Wong teaser.
Cardinals +1.5 vs. Falcons
With QB Kyler Murray (knee) expected back, I have this projected closer to a pick’em.
Seahawks -6.5 vs. Commanders
I can see this getting to -7 and have already bet it. I have it projected at -7.6. This is a get-right spot for the Seahawks at home.
Giants +16.5 at Cowboys
I likely won’t take a position on either team, but I did briefly consider teasing the Cowboys down to -9.5 when the line was at -15.5. That said, at +16.5 I see slight value on the Giants — but not enough to make me bet them. I think the bigger takeaway is this: I’m not betting on the Cowboys here, even though this feels like a total smash spot.
Broncos +7.5 at Bills
Gross. I don’t want to bet on the Broncos, and I haven’t done it yet, but I have this projected at +6.8.
Freedman’s Week 10 Contest Picks
Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.
I’m participating in a contest at DraftKings, and here’s my record.
- Week 9: 3-2
- 2023: 27-18
Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest for Week 10.
Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news and additional research.
- I expect some longer underdogs (Commanders, Giants, Broncos) to have minimal exposure in the contest.
- I think the Cowboys will popular despite the large spread.
- I anticipate that several short favorites (Colts, Buccaneers, Falcons, Jets) will have low pick rates.
Abbreviations
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
Previous Best Bets Pieces
My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.
