How To Fix The Colts

The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency, and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Who knows, maybe an NFL GM will read this and realize those fantasy nerds aren’t so crazy after all – we all want the same thing, more points, and more wins!!!

How To Fix The Colts

Nov 20, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs the ball in the first quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Team Summary

It was a tough scene in Indianapolis this season, with Frank Reich fired in November and star RB Jonathan Taylor battling injuries throughout the season before shutting down for the final three games.

The Colts were outscored by an average of 8.1 points per game – which summarizes their 2022 campaign better than any other number. Over the previous two seasons, they finished inside the top eight, outscoring opponents by 5.1 points.

They were also a run-balanced offense during that time, opting to pass only 56% and 55% in the 2020 and 2021 seasons. The goal was to insulate their questionable QB situation by keeping defenses off-balance. However, that recipe imploded in 2022. With the team trailing by four-plus points third-most in the league (52% of the time), the team was forced to pass the ball on 62% of plays.

Matt Ryan	Marcus Mariota	Carson Wentz	Justin Fields	Baker Mayfield,	Taylor Heinicke	Michael Pittman Jr.	Andrew Luck	Fantasy Fixer Recommendations	Be Ready to Trade Up for a QB	Matt Ryan	Geno Smith	Jared Goff	Derek Carr	Desmond Ridder	Kyler Murray	Bryce Young	C.J. Stroud,	Will Levis	Jonathan Taylor	Hire a QB-Friendly HC/OC
39% (30th)	19% (28th)	8% (20th)	8% (18th)

Any one or two of these things don’t guarantee the success of an offense – talent is still the No. 1 factor. However, many of the best offenses incorporate these elements into their offense.

The Lions’ coordinator, Ben Johnson, is a great example of this. In 2021, the team ranked 25th in points per game (19.1) and 22nd in yards per game (323), which improved to sixth (26.6) and fourth (380), respectively. Detroit made subtle changes to their offense.

	Motion/Shift	Play Action	Trick Look
2021	51% (17th)	23% (27th)	11% (5th)
2022	70% (4th)	26% (16th)	9% (11th)

In the upgraded offense, Jared Goff rebounded from a career-low 6.4 YPA to 7.4.

Unfortunately, for other NFL teams, the big-brained OC re-committed to the Lions, giving him a substantial raise.

However, the template remains – the Colts must find an HC/OC combination that strives to provide their young QB with every advantage possible.

Indianapolis Colts tight end Jelani Woods (80) goes up for a catch in front of Indianapolis Colts cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. (39) on Monday, Nov. 28, 2022, during a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Feature TE Jelani Woods

If the Colts trade up for the No. 1 overall pick, it will likely involve their second-rounder, which means they have to turn to free agency or inward to find new production in 2023. With Parris Campbell likely to hit free agency, Alec Pierce, Jelani Woods, and Kylen Granson are all candidates for more routes next season.

The question is whether they can earn more targets with the additional playing time. While all three players flashed at different points in 2022, Woods is the most interesting option for a couple reasons.

First, he delivered the second-highest PFF receiving grade (68.0) behind Pittman. He also had the second-highest YPRR (1.51) and TPRR (17%), which puts his rookie profile in the same neighborhood as Dallas Goedert and David Njoku but with less draft capital. Since 2011, the average low-end TE1 had a 19% TPRR and 1.59 YPRR, which is in range for Woods.

Second, it is easier to manufacture looks with TEs playing inside against linebackers and safeties in zone coverage than on the outside, like what Pierce faces. We have seen third- and fourth-rounders like Mark Andrews and Dalton Schultz emerge as viable fantasy options.

Woods doesn’t carry the same collegiate receiving resume, but the third-round pick stands 6’7” and ran an impressive 4.61 at the NFL combine, so there is a chance he could develop into a mismatch nightmare. In his only full-time game of the season in Week 12, he led the team with a 29% target share, leading to eight receptions for 98 yards.

In the Frank Reich era, the Colts deployed a maddening three-way TE committee that has left fantasy managers scratching their heads. However, the new coaching regime might not have the same tendencies, especially if Woods impresses throughout offseason workouts.

If Woods gets to 80% route participation in 2023, he could be a surprise mid-range TE1.

How To Fix The Colts