Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Week 18 Game Preview
Jonathan Fuller breaks down the Week 18 matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Despite all the turmoil late in the season, the Jaguars are still in a position where they control their own destiny. A win will lock up the AFC South division crown and the #4 seed in the playoffs, earning them a home game to start the postseason.
If Jacksonville loses, they still have a shot at a Wild Card spot, depending on the outcome of the Steelers game.
The outlook for this game hinges on whether Trevor Lawrence will be available to return from the shoulder injury that caused him to miss a game for the first time in his pro career. On the other side, the Titans QB situation is also up in the air so there are a handful of different QB matchups on the table.
The Jaguars were able to get by just fine with C.J. Beathard last week, but they were never under pressure as they shut out the Panthers. The Titans have lost three in a row, so they aren’t exactly strong competition, but they’re better than Carolina. The Titans' defense has been better against the run than the pass, so getting Lawrence back seems all the more important to capitalize on that matchup advantage.
Jacksonville had their lowest dropback rate of the season in Week 17, so if it is Beathard under center, we can expect Travis Etienne to get plenty of work in such an important game. He is currently the RB6 in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks is a great start regardless of who is at QB.
The same can’t be said for the pass catchers. Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram each saw six targets with Beathard at QB last week, while no one else saw more than two. Despite combining for a 50% target share, neither Ridley nor Engram hit double digit points in half PPR scoring.
They could really use Trevor Lawrence back. Otherwise, Jacksonville will likely have to be in a negative game script to have any real passing volume.
Tennessee doesn’t really seem like the team that is going to put anyone in a negative game script at the moment. The Titans are averaging just 12 points per game over their last three games and rank 30th in plays per game on the season. They aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but if Levis is back, they at least have some explosive play potential that could make this game fun.
The Tennessee backfield has evolved into more of a committee situation as the season has progressed, with Derrick Henry not handling more than 66% of the rush attempts in any of their last five games. Tyjae Spears has really flashed down the stretch and should continue to see a solid workload, especially in passing situations.
DeAndre Hopkins is a low-end WR2 who should be serviceable with either QB but definitely has a higher ceiling if Levis plays.
On paper, the Titans don’t have much to play for, and Jacksonville should be highly motivated so this seems like it should be a straightforward game, but don’t be surprised if Tennessee buys in on trying to spoil the playoff party for their division rivals.