Jaguars @ Bills Week 5 Game Preview
Geoff Ulrich breaks down the details of the Week 5 matchup between the Jaguars and Bills from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills
This will mark the second week in a row that the Jaguars contest a game in London—a first for the NFL to have a team play two weeks in a row overseas.
We can argue the reasoning for the Jaguars' extended stay over in London to death (their stadium sucks), but after winning the first of this two-game stretch last week 23-7 over Atlanta, they may not be putting up much of a fuss over the extended trip. Overall, the Jaguars are 5-5 in London games but have gone 5-3 SU over their last eight European games.
Trevor Lawrence (207-1-0) continued his trend of low output games for fantasy in 2023 but did show some improvement efficiency-wise. His 7.57 adjusted yards per attempt metric was his best of the season, but he still sits just 24th in EPA per play (-0.17) among all quarterbacks on the season.
The Bills defense' held Tua Tagovailoa (282-1-1) to arguably his worst game of the year last week and overall have been stout in coverage. They’re 13th in yards per attempt against and have 16 sacks on the season.
Jacksonville would love to get Calvin Ridley (2-38-1) going after he was held under 50 yards for the third game in a row last week, and with Tre'Davious White (Achilles) now out for the year, this could certainly be the week Ridley reemerges as the Jaguars' go-to weapon.
Ridley is in a much better matchup this week than he was last week when he had to go up against AJ Terrell—one of the best corners in the league. However, the Jaguars' main advantage on offense may come in the run game with Travis Etienne. Despite only having three runs of 10+ yards this season, Etienne has been effective for Jacksonville, posting two games with 70+ yards and having 14 catches on 16 targets.
The matchup this week suggests he could improve on some of those metrics as well. The Bills' rush defense ranks last in yards per attempt against (6.3) and has given up over 118 yards per game on the ground thus far.
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) rushes for yards against Houston Texans cornerback Shaquill Griffin (0) during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Houston Texans defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-17. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
If Jacksonville can’t get some explosive plays from Etienne, then this could be a long day for their defense. The Bills have averaged 40.5 points scored over their last three games and rank third in offensive DVOA on the season.
Josh Allen now sits at the top of the MVP award odds (+375) and accounted for five TDs last week against Miami (4 passing and 1 rushing). He’s third in EPA per play on the season among all QBs and seems unlikely to be held down by a defense that got manhandled by CJ Stroud two weeks ago—allowing the rookie to throw for two TDs and 9.33 yards per attempt.
Jacksonville hasn’t been terrible on defense, but at the same time, the fact they haven’t held up very well against two rookie quarterbacks is certainly concerning.
From a matchup perspective, this could also be the spot where we finally see a Dalton Kincaid breakout game. The Jaguars allowed Jonnu Smith (6-95) to break out for a big game last week, and overall have allowed the third most yards and receptions to opposing TEs on the year. Kincaid’s target share dropped last week, but his route participation rate held steady and he recorded 4.0 catches, the third time already that he’s taken in 4.0 or more catches in a game.
Stefon Diggs (30% target share, 37% air yards share) obviously remains the main cog in the Bills' passing game, but there will come a time and place where Allen shifts a little more usage to the rookie TE, and it could certainly come this week against Jacksonville. Don’t be shocked if Kincaid’s first TD happens this week.
The lookahead line for this game was 3.5, but it has now shifted dramatically toward Buffalo, sitting between 5.0-5.5 at most sportsbooks. The fact that this game is taking place overseas does add a little wrinkle, and with White being out for Buffalo, a 6.0 spread feels a little too big for them against a still competitive Jaguars team.
Realistically, anything above 5.0 is likely enough to take the Jaguars for their second cover in a row against a Buffalo team who is in a letdown spot, and now hurting in the secondary.