Jaguars @ Buccaneers Week 16 Game Preview

Two potential playoff teams still fighting for a spot in Week 16? Sign me up! But, of course, injuries (or a singular injury) may spoil any excitement.

First, good on Trevor Lawrence for self-reporting. He has taken the tenth-most QB hits this season behind the 31st-ranked offensive line in pass block win rate. But the offense was already struggling without Christian Kirk. Let’s hope TLaw makes it back in time, as this would’ve been a matchup to get the Jags’ offense back on track.

The Bucs have given up a QB1 finished in six of their ten contests since their Week 5 bye. And sure, the Josh Allens and Jared Goffs of the world have torched them for high scores. But the guys we typically stream have made it into the Top 12, too:

• Jordan Love: 17.5 PTS, QB12
• Desmond Ridder: 25.4 PTS, QB2

Baker Mayfield has played some of his best ball over the last two weeks, so he won’t make it easy. But let’s dig a bit into the ailing Jaguars’ passing game from a fantasy standpoint.

As I mentioned, since Kirk went on IR, Jacksonville hasn’t been the same. They averaged 18.7 yards per drive against the Browns and -1.3 EPA per play against the Ravens on Sunday night. Both were the second-lowest marks of the season. Luckily, it hasn’t altered their approach to passing.

Evan Engram has been a beneficiary of Kirk’s absence. Lawrence has looked Engram’s way more on third/fourth downs (18.5% target share in Weeks 1-13 to 22.2% over the last two weeks) and once the Jags get into scoring position (18.6% to 33.3%). He’s averaged nine targets per game without Kirk and will slide into the TE1 conversation for Week 16. But the WRs are a bit harder to pin down.

Zay Jones is week-to-week with a hamstring injury. He has 22 targets in two games. Calvin Ridley remains the WR1, and his slot rate has jumped to 27.0%. And against this Bucs’ defense, if you made it this far, this would be the time for Ridley to have a big game.

The last five WR1s to face Tampa Bay’s secondary wound up with the following stat lines:

• Jayden Reed: 8-52-1, 17.2 PPR points
• Drake London: 11-172-0, 27.2
• Jonathan Mingo: 10-69-0, 12.9
• Michael Pittman: 13-107-0, 20.7
• Brandon Aiyuk: 6-156-1, 26.6

Even receiving backs have gotten into the mix, keeping Travis Etienne as an RB1. So, let’s hope their QB is back on the field by Sunday to keep this a competitive matchup.

On Tampa Bay’s side, let’s give credit where it’s due. Mayfield was dealing with a knee injury from Weeks 8 through 10. Since Week 11, he’s 13th in EPA per play and 10th in passing yards. But it’s not like his good play means more passing.

OC Dave Canales was the architect behind Geno Smith’s comeback in ’22. And with Mayfield healthy, his play-action rate has steadily ticked up to 27.0% from 19.0% three weeks ago. But against Jacksonville’s defense, any of their primary weapons has a shot at being productive.

Rachaad White is one of six RBs with a team rushing share over 60.0%. Of those six, only White and Christian McCaffrey have route rates over 70.0%. And the second-year rusher’s 12.2% target share lags behind only CMC, Josh Jacobs, and Etienne. You should have White locked into your starting roster. 

The WRs are a similar story, but it’s not as straightforward. Chris Godwin was dealing with a neck injury in Week 13. But despite the pain, Godwin has taken the lead in looks over Mike Evans 26 to 24. Regardless, Evans still has the air yards (41.5%), with the majority of the deep shots from Mayfield. While Evans typically looks like a volatile option, he hasn’t seen fewer than five targets in a single game since Week 4 and is a top-24 option for Week 16.