Jets @ Bills Week 11 Game Preview

Normally, when I talk about chaos, I’m referring to what can happen on the field.

I mean, the game revolves around humans taking hits that would knock me into my next lifetime. Football is chaotic, no doubt. But the plot lines coming into this matchup carry so much weight I’d expect them to get more air time than the players executing.

“[Zach Wilson] is actually playing pretty well.”

Robert Saleh actually spoke those words after his QB caused another back-breaking turnover in primetime, ending in another loss. However, at 4-5, the Jets aren’t completely out of the race in the AFC East.

The Bills lost in spectacular fashion on Monday night and have since fired OC Ken Dorsey. Sean McDermott jumbled a bunch of corporate buzzwords together to outline how the team will recover, but the Bills Mafia is at DEFCON 1. So, while we’re here for the fantasy points, the actual scoreboard will be everyone’s focus during this matchup.

You’d think with a (I’ll be kind) shaky passer and a talented RB, the offense would lean on their ground game. Well, the Jets have other ideas.

Wilson has cracked 200 passing yards in just four games and has the fewest passing TDs of any active QB. Hopefully, you’re not relying on him for value, but a couple of his pass-catchers are.

On the season, Garrett Wilson has the highest target share of any WR at 33.0%. And he’s second amongst his peers in air yards. But Wilson has 11 more receiving yards than Nico Collins, and Collins missed a week because of an injury. 

In scoring formats rewarding receptions, Wilson’s volume nets him a WR2 ranking as he faces a Bills’ secondary which has given up solid performances to receivers earning similar workloads (Calvin Ridley – 20.6 PPR points, Davante Adams – 20.4, Tee Higgins – 19.0). But the Jets’ rushing attack might have the greater fantasy value in this game.

Buffalo ranks 22nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. We just saw Javonte Williams notch 13.1 PPR points on his receiving skills alone, and Rachaad White (14.0) had a similar outing in Week 8. And since the Jets released Michael Carter (who had a 6.9% target share on the season), Breece Hall, who’s dominated the backfield with a 65.1% rushing share since the bye, has multiple paths to a top-12 finish.

For Buffalo, let’s assume interim OC Joe Brady maintains the best parts of the offense. Take Josh Allen’s rushing rate, for example.

After an uneven start to the season, Allen’s hit a designed rushing rate of over 5.0% (and hit a season-high 10.0% in Week 10) in four straight games. He’s found the end zone in each contest and finished as the QB5 or better in three of four. And over that same span, there’s only been one matchup where his throwing rate has been an issue for fantasy.

Despite his brother causing a ruckus on social media, I’m not worried about Stefon Diggs. He’s still seen five or more targets in every game this season and only had one fewer look than Gabe Davis on Sunday. Buffalo’s WR1 dropped a 13-102-1 statline when the divisional rivals first faced off in Week 1. While we can’t predict the same result, the Allen-Diggs connection will be back in a must-win situation. But Allen’s rapport with a separate pass-catcher has been deservedly getting more attention each week.

Since Dawson Knox’s injury, Dalton Kincaid is up to a 90.6% route rate and a 25.0% target share. Over the last three weeks, he has had the same number of targets as Diggs. Kincaid’s 22.6% TPRR is first on the team. In short, he’s the WR2. 

Allen will certainly take his shots downfield, giving Davis (10.9 air yards per target) a chance for an explosive play or two. And Khalil Shakir, who has run more routes in three-receiver sets from the slot, has a viable floor at 4.0 targets per game. However, Kincaid’s target-earning ability and efficiency (second-highest YPRR on the team since Week 8) make him a high-end TE1 for Week 11.