Jets @ Broncos Week 5 Game Preview
Chris Allen breaks down the Week 5 matchup between the New York Jets and New England Patriots from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
Honestly, we should all be Swifties after Sunday night.
After becoming a larger part of the NFL fan base, Taylor Swift fans have watched Justin Fields and Zach Wilson. The broadcast had to cut away from Fields’ implosion in Week 3. But the other first-round QB from the ’21 draft deserved some praise after his duel against Patrick Mahomes. So now, we’re faced with two options.
One, we toss it aside. We have a myriad of film clips and mountains of data to emphasize how poorly Wilson has played. Or two, we join Swifties and wipe the slate clean. Maybe OC Nathaniel Hackett can cook something up. Plus, it’d be poetic justice for them to get their second win in Week 5.
Hackett got run out of town after his first stint as a head coach, and his replacement, Sean Payton, had some thoughts about Hackett’s time in Denver. However, Payton needed a vintage, last-minute effort from Russell Wilson for the Broncos to get out of their winless slump to start the season. Accordingly, if you believe Zach Wilson might have turned a corner, Russell Wilson might need to find some magic at Mile High to keep the Jets’ offense at bay.
Let’s start with what levers Hackett pulled to get us this new version of the BYU product.
Jan 9, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) throws a pass in the third quarter game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
First, Wilson hit a season-high in play-action rate (25.6%). He passed for 56 yards, one touchdown, and four first downs off of PA concepts. Wilson also stayed away from the middle of the field on a majority of his throws. Per NextGenStat’s passing charts, Wilson threw between the hash marks just four times. As a result, Garrett Wilson (we have too many Wilsons in this game) earned the third-most targets in a single contest (14). Finally, Hackett threw everything at the Chiefs to keep their secondary guessing.
The Jets have primarily operated with three receivers on the field, but they mixed it up on Sunday night. Wilson had six dropbacks apiece with two (12 personnel) and three TEs (13 personnel). Hence, C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin became one-week stars. And they, along with the other pass-catchers, can certainly do it again in Week 5.
You don’t need me to tell you to start Garrett Wilson. With other opposing WR1s having solid outings (Tyreek Hill 11-157-1, DJ Moore 9-131-1, Davante Adams 9-66-0), Wilson is in the WR2 discussion. But I’m interested in Breece Hall in season-long and single-week formats.
Hall hasn’t seen more than 12 carries in a game but leads the backfield in target share (9.1%). And facing the Broncos has been lucrative for RBs who also function as receivers. Let’s toss out what the Miami RBs did to Denver.
Before that massacre, Josh Jacobs added 5.3 PPR points onto his day and the Commanders’ rushers totaled 86 yards on six targets. And let’s not forget Khalil Herbert’s receiving TD. It all sets up for Hall to have his first big week in fantasy. Let’s just hope we get the right Zach Wilson under center.
For Denver, the silver lining to their one-win season is Russell Wilson looks better. He’s back in the Top 5 for EPA per play and CPOE. His air yards per target are even back above the league average. Wilson has multi-touchdown outings in all but one game this season. So, for fantasy purposes, Wilson throwing the ball has been worthwhile.
The problem is it’s not clear who he’s throwing to on any given dropback.
Fourteen (yes, 14, not a typo) different players have earned a target from Russ. For comparison, 13 guys have caught passes from Patrick Mahomes. But, to be fair, I’ll hang my fantasy hopes on Mahomes. Regardless, six of the 14 have double-digit looks. But it’s not like we envisioned during the offseason.
Courtland Sutton leads the team (23.1% target share) with Jerry Jeudy (14.0%) catching up to Sutton in air yards. However, rookie Marvin Mims lags behind the duo. Inexplicably, Mims has run fewer routes than Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson. But it’s Mims with the most receiving yards on the team.
Either way, it’s been receivers like CeeDee Lamb (13-143-0) and Stefon Diggs (10-102-1) that have gotten the best of the Jets’ secondary. It seems like staying away from CB Sauce Gardner is a strong recipe for success. A game plan with this in mind would lend itself to Jeudy, given his 70.1% slot rate. But if you need some punch in your lineup, Mims can deliver on any given play.