Lions @ Bears Week 14 Game Preview

I can’t shake this feeling the Bears pull off an upset.

Clearly, it’s because Chicago just did it to their other division rival last week, as the ‘Passtronaut’ crashed back to earth in horrific fashion in Week 12. But my sentiment isn’t just based on something from two weeks ago. And it’s definitely not grounded on a team that could only score 12 points.

For now, let’s set aside the Bears' and Lions' first meeting from Week 11. Over the last six weeks (minus the Week 11 game), Detroit’s defense has allowed 29.4 points per game. The Lions haven’t been able to escape without scoring more than 20 all season. As a result, the environment sets up for plenty of fantasy scoring.

For Detroit, rostering Jared Goff always seems like a good idea because we like his pass-catchers. On the season, the WR6 and TE3 depend on his arm. Oh, and the RB14 tied for the fourth-most targets of any rusher needs him, too. But they all need to win on efficiency since it’ll take another team’s offense to push him into a pass-heavy script.

There’s been one instance where Goff has thrown for more than 300 yards, and his opponent scored less than 20 points. Detroit’s -20.2% red-zone PROE ranks dead last. So, our pool of fantasy options remains tight. And given the Bears' surprising turnaround on defense, the best choices become easy to spot.

Sam LaPorta looks as advertised, just three months into his career. Yet another ‘TE University product,’ the former Hawkeye sits in the Top 6 amongst his peers in every category, from target share (4th) to YPRR (6th). And since the Week 9 bye, his role in the offense has only grown, as he’s second on the team in targets behind Amon-Ra St. Brown.

However, as I mentioned, LaPorta’s problem (and the rest of the pass-catchers, too) is once the team gets into scoring position. When healthy, David Montgomery already has a near 2.5-to-1 lead on the carries over Jahmyr Gibbs. But Montgomery’s hold on the green-zone touches makes the veteran a high-end RB2 most weeks. So, assuming the rookie gets back to his typical receiving usage (16.0% target share since the bye), both have top-24 potential. And so does one other WR.

Jameson Williams has run over 60.0% of the routes in three consecutive games after a slow start to his compressed season. He’s only earned a few targets each game, but we saw a new wrinkle in how OC Ben Johnson wants to use Williams. Like the Packers and Jayden Reed, the Lions used the second-year receiver as a rusher to access his speed. So, despite the limited usage in the passing game, Williams does have a path to a ceiling, making him a viable flex play in Week 14.

On the Bears’ side, the discussion has been (and will continue to be) around Justin Fields and his ability to operate the offense. He’s been back under center for the last two games. Great! But, schematically, we haven’t seen a significant shift in the offense relative to when it was Tyson Bagent as QB1.

Nearly identical play-action rates (28.4% to 30.6%) with a hilariously heavy helping of screen attempts for Fields leaves us asking the same questions about his QB skills. But from a fantasy standpoint, he’s all good in our books. Fields is up to a 23.2% designed rushing rate since returning. And at least the veteran was the more accurate passer (84.0% adjusted completion percentage compared to Bagent’s 69.6%). Against the Lions’ secondary, Fields may be able to do some damage here.

Only one WR for Chicago has a target share over 10.0%: D.J. Moore.

Only one other pass-catcher can boast a similar passing workload: Cole Kmet.

The ancillary pieces (Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, etc.) don’t warrant our consideration this late into the season. However, one of the RBs vying for touches does.

A slight twist to the Bears’ offense is their increased use of 21-personnel (choose the ‘Scheme’ option in the View dropdown menu). Accordingly, we’ve seen Roschon Johnson play more snaps with D’Onta Foreman out. Khalil Herbert still leads the backfield, and Fields will always snipe a tote or two (or five). But with Johnson picking up a 14.0% target share along with earning some run in the two-minute offense, every fantasy manager with playoff hopes should stash the rookie on their bench for the stretch run.