Lions @ Buccaneers Week 6 Game Preview

Are these teams for real? Because that’s all I want to know. 

I’m pretty confident in the Lions’ offense. They’re ninth in EPA per play, with David Montgomery missing time, Jameson Williams just returning, and Jahmyr Gibbs still finding his way. I mean, they ran a flea flicker to their rookie TE last week. At the same time, their defense ranks seventh in pressure, allowing just 6.4 yards per play.

OK, I take it back. I’m buying what Detroit’s selling. They’ve restored the roar.

But is Baker Mayfield back?

*record scratch*

*freeze frame*

Yep, there’s Mayfield. He’s right next to Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts. At QB20 on the season (16.8 PPG), he’s generated more fantasy points per game than Trevor Lawrence (14.7). But before I try to figure out if his output is fluky or not, let’s see how the Lions will approach this matchup.

Even without the Sun God, the Lions’ offense still shined in Week 5. OC Ben Johnson used the remaining personnel to cover up for Amon-Ra St. Brown’s absence. So, if St. Brown (abdomen) has to miss another week, we’ve got an idea of what to expect.

• Josh Reynolds: 18.5% target share (first on the team); one of two WRs to get a end zone target
• Kalif Raymond: second in targets; had the most slot snaps (18)
• Jameson Williams: 20.0% TPRR (second amongst the WRs); only WR to earn a target in obvious passing situations

It’s possible fantasy managers will look at Williams’ usage (2-2-0, no, not a typo) and want to label him a dud. But there’s a lot of meat left on the bone here. He only played on 46% of the offensive snaps, ran a route on 50.0% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks, and (here’s the kicker) averaged 1.0 air yards per target.

Let me repeat. The deep threat with 4.39 speed averaged fewer air yards per target than Braxton Berrios.

Let’s assume his role will expand as he gets more playing time. But, for now, it’s just Sam LaPorta (his 24.0% TPRR is greater than Christian Kirk’s) and David Montgomery (at a 46.9% rushing success rate, he’s ahead of Bijan Robinson) we’re trusting in our lineups.

And, to be honest, I’m not that surprised about this Mayfield resurgence.

OC Dave Canales was the architect behind Geno Smith’s renaissance. And a similar recipe for success is helping out Baker. He’s third in play-action rate, and nearly half (47.2%) of his throws have gone outside of the numbers. And using his 2020 season (the year the Browns made the playoffs) passing grid as a proxy, throwing to the perimeter fits Mayfield’s play style.

As a result, Mike Evans has flourished with the QB change. His 44.6% air yard share dwarfs the rest of the Tampa pass-catchers, and at a 30.1% TPRR, Evans is right behind A.J. Brown at sixth amongst all WRs. However, the Bucs’ WR1 injured his hamstring heading into their bye week. He was working with trainers to start this week’s practice. 

But even if he sits, Chris Godwin was quick to remind us he’s still one of the top WRs in the league. Godwin took over the game in Week 4 posting an 11-114-0 statline. And with Detroit’s pass coverage sustaining more injuries, Tampa’s dynamic duo may be the savior to keep the Buc’s season alive.