Lions @ Chargers Week 10 Game Preview

I’m workshopping a take.

The Chargers are just a fancy version of the Lions.

Both aerial attacks feature a power slot receiver with questionable talent on the perimeter to complement them. Undersized RBs with pass-catching ability (at least currently) headline their ground games. And finally, each squad has a QB that diligently adheres to the scheme (sometimes to a fault). 

However, the similarities stop as soon as we look at their records. The Lions sit atop the NFC North, while the Chargers are struggling to stay afloat in their division, let alone compete for a playoff spot in the AFC. But since Detroit’s coming off their bye, let’s tap in with their offense first, as they’ve made some changes since we last saw them. 

Jared Goff’s 51.3% passing success rate and 0.07 EPA per dropback both rank in the Top 12 amongst all QBs through Week 9. His 33.2% pressure rating ranks 10th lowest, which has given him time to connect with his pass-catchers. But only two have made the most impact.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (78 targets) and rookie TE Sam LaPorta (59) account for 49.9% of Goff’s attempts. The Sun God’s 2.53 YPRR on a 29.7% TPRR rate are both Top 8 marks for a WR (min. 40 targets). Meanwhile, LaPorta sits at fifth in air yard share relative to his peers. Fantasy managers have them locked into their starting roster for a reason.

But the Lions’ backfield faces a (good for real football, but bad for fantasy football) problem heading into Week 10. 

David Montgomery returned to practice after missing more time due to an injury. His Week 3 absence didn’t cause much of a ruckus, as the Lions’ defense held the Falcons to six points. Detroit didn’t have to fight back or keep their foot on the gas. But after seeing both scenarios play out in Weeks 8 and 9, we got a long look at Jahmyr Gibbs and how the Lions’ coaching staff wanted to deploy him.

Now, keeping in mind it’s just a two-week sample, here are some reference points for Gibbs’ workload:

• His target share (18.1%) and TPRR (20.5%) were greater than Christian McCaffrey’s
• Only Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker, and Travis Etienne averaged a higher share of their team’s carries than Gibbs (67.3%)
• He touched the ball 51 times in those two games. Zach Charbonnet has touched the ball 41 times all season.

In short, Gibbs got the work but also came through with the production. He ranked Top 12 in adjusted yards after contact and EPA per rush. However, he ceded goal-line work to Craig Reynolds. And that’s where Montgomery becomes an instant RB2 in fantasy.

The Lions rank dead last in red-zone PROE, and Montgomery hoarded the totes in this area when healthy. Gibbs should continue to have top-24 appeal in PPR formats due to his pass-catching role. But in other, more TD-reliant scoring systems, temper expectations as Montgomery will likely bogart the touches once Detroit gets into scoring position.

Overall, fantasy managers don’t have to rely on Detroit’s auxillary options. Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond could be useful in a pinch. But the Lions’ stars are as advertised. Meanwhile, I don’t think we can say the same for the Chargers.

New York, NY, US; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) is shown seconds after scoring a touchdown, at MetLife Stadium, Monday, November 6, 2023.

Since their Week 5 bye, Austin Ekeler has gained over 100 scrimmage yards once. And without his two short-yardage scores on Monday night, fantasy managers would’ve been left with less than 10 for the second time in three weeks. So, the margins are slimmer for the Chargers. And Justin Herbert has looked to his other options to keep the offense moving. The results aren’t there, but there are some encouraging signs.

Quentin Johnston now has two games with Josh Palmer either injured or off the field entirely. Small-sample bias aside, the rookie’s role within the offense has improved. He’s the only non-Allen WR on the Chargers with a route participation rate over 75.0% and a double-digit target share (13.6%). Plus, he’s earned three red-zone targets over the same span. For reference, Johnston only got two through the first month of the season. Luckily, the Lions have been susceptible to perimeter WRs:

• Romeo Doubs, 9-95-0
• D.J. Chark, 6-42-1
• DK Metcalf, 6-75-0

With his rapport with Herbert continuing to grow, Johnston has FLEX viability with some of our best options on bye this weekend.