Rams @ Giants Week 17 Game Preview

So, I had this game circled as another matchup to target over the summertime for best-ball drafts. 

What wasn’t to like?

Darren Waller was making offseason headlines as the top target earner from Daniel Jones, coming off one of his better statistical seasons under Brian Daboll, who had just won the Coach of the Year award. It was a simple stack to create, and if you were applying DFS tactics, the Rams’ bringbacks were palatable prices, too.

You needed luck on your side to get Cooper Kupp given his ADP. But Cam Akers was a mid-round option, Van Jefferson was always liable for a big play or two, and Tyler Higbee could go with a couple other guys for a three-TE build.

But now, only one of those guys matters. And both offenses have enough explosive talent to keep each other throwing the whole game. Let’s start on the LA side.

Matthew Stafford is the QB16 in fantasy PPG. By our standards, he’s been good or mid, as the kids say. But the veteran passer is third in EPA per play and tenth in passing success rate on the season. Once Kupp returned, Stafford shot up to fourth in adjusted yards per attempt behind Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, and Dak Prescott. Stafford can still ball despite operating a balanced offense.

Stafford hasn’t attempted fewer than 30 passes since returning from his thumb injury. He’s a fringe starter if you need him to bring home a title. But against the Giants, he might not be in the best position to do it.

Since their Week 13 bye, the Giants have blitzed opposing QBs on over 40.0% of their dropbacks. Jalen Hurts saw five or more pass rushers on 68.3% of his dropbacks just this past week. And Hurts has the mobility to keep plays alive. Stafford? Less so. But a strong ground game can short-circuit an aggressive pass rush, putting Kyren Williams in a favorable spot.

Williams hasn’t touched the ball fewer than 20 times since returning to the lineup. Week 16 was his first game without a target, but a 100.0% carry rate from inside the 5-yard line in three of his last four games should keep him as an RB1 for Week 17.

Kupp and Puka Nacua continue to battle for the WR1 title, with both grading out as top-12 options. The rookie has had one fewer or tied the vet in targets while leading in air yards. But the only title we care about is a ‘league winner,’ so both should be in starting lineups.

For the Giants, our first concern should be about who will be under center. Brian Daboll benched Tommy DeVito to start the second half, and now Tyrod Taylor will start in Week 17. Regardless, even with the switch to Taylor, New York still ran a below-average number of plays in their comeback effort against the Eagles.

But the game environment sparks a need to press the ball downfield. Saquon Barkley will get his, though. The veteran rusher had all but one of the team’s carries in the first half (plus two targets) and all but two with Taylor on the field in the second half (with four more targets). But with Taylor capable of getting the ball out to the pass-catchers (213 air yards to 37 from DeVito), the WRs become interesting for Week 17.

Wan’Dale Robinson at least has flex appeal in PPR leagues. In the second half, his 35.0% air-yard share led the team. He saw a similar number of targets from both QBs (3 from DeVito and 4 from Taylor) and still got looks downfield. Darius Slayton may get some love for being the homerun threat, but Robinson’s floor should get more consideration for Week 17.