Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Week 18 Game Preview

At first glance, this looked like the matchup of the week.

The surging Rams with a Week 18 divisional rematch against the 49ers? Get me my popcorn. However, the reality of the playoffs and how things broke in Week 17 made this game a bit less interesting.

• Rams: LA has clinched a playoff spot, but their seed isn’t locked in yet. Regardless, their rank doesn’t change their outlook. They’ll still be on the road against one of the higher-placed squads. Accordingly, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams will rest during Week 18.
• 49ers: San Francisco secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed after last week. Christian McCaffrey didn’t finish the game, so naturally, he’ll miss a meaningless Week 18 matchup. In addition, Sam Darnold will start in place of Brock Purdy.

So, we get Carson Wentz vs.Darnold. It’s not the worst consolation prize, but it puts playing time in flux for multiple starters and backups. However, at least for the Rams, we don’t have to worry about a change in playcalling with Sean McVay scheming things up.

Per our Utilization Report, LA’s dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate dropped to its third-lowest on the season (-8.0%) the last time Stafford missed a game. However, it was Brett Rypien starting in place of Stafford, so there should be some optimism about the passing-game volume despite the switch. Besides, teams have found more success targeting the 49ers’ secondary than their front seven to move the ball down the field.

There hasn’t been any word on San Francisco’s primary defensive stars resting in Week 18 yet. Regardless, Royce Freeman and Ronnie Rivers should be the primary backfield options on Sunday. Freeman has been Williams’ primary backup since he returned to the lineup in Week 12. Freeman took half of the green-zone carries just last week and worked in short-yard situations. However, given his complementary skillset, expect Rivers to take a larger load as the game continues. But really, all eyes will be on the WRs, specifically one WR.

The rookie receiving yards record is 1,473, set in 1960. Puka Nacua currently has 1,445 on the season. His availability on Sunday is for an obvious reason. However, the (likely) record-breaking WR probably won’t be on the field much longer after making history. His absence takes away all of the fantasy-relevant options, but I think there’s still one more.

Demarcus Robinson is 95 yards away from setting a new career high and has already tied his maximum touchdowns scored in a single season (4). Over the last month, Robinson has a 97.4% route rate and leads the team in air yard share (38.0%). Yes, you read that right. He has more air yards (388) than Kupp (232) and Nacua (325) and just seven fewer targets than the primary duo. McVay doesn’t mind sticking Nacua out to break a record. It seems fair to say he’d let his WR3 go out and set a personal best in Week 18.

Of course, it makes sense for Purdy to sit this game out. He has gotten dinged up in previous games, and it wouldn’t make sense to have him out there.

HOWEVER.

In my heart of hearts, I think Kyle Shanahan wants to know what the offense would look like if Darnold had to take over a game. Think about how shellshocked he’d be if a repeat of last year’s NFC Championship game happened again. And, again, his backup QB wasn’t ready. So this gives him a ‘convenient’ excuse to throw Darnold into the mix, and I doubt we see much of a change in their playcalling.

It was a small sample, but we did get to see Darnold for a short time against the Ravens in Week 16. He had a pass rate over expectation (PROE) of +5.5%, while Purdy’s was -0.5% through the first three quarters. Again, it was only 14 pass attempts, but if Shanahan does want to ensure his QB2 will be ready, his behavior a couple of weeks ago jibes with letting him rip it. Besides, without CMC and against the Rams’ defense (without Aaron Donald), we’d expect the 49ers to take to the air anyway.

Jordan Mason will likely take over the backfield in place of McCaffrey. Elijah Mitchell has been the usual RB2 but has also dealt with injuries throughout the season. Regardless, we’ve got fewer pass-catching options, assuming Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk will have short lifespans in a meaningless game (as of this writing, they’re still going to play). 

Jauan Jennings, their rotating slot man, has been inactive over the last two games, and the other options include Willie Snead, Ronnie Bell, and Chris Conley. If George Kittle sits, Charlie Woerner has run at least 20.0% of the routes over the last two weeks. But, at best, he’d be a desperation play at a position with other viable options.