Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Week 18 Game Preview

A Week 18 divisional rematch sounds slow-paced and low-scoring. The teams already know each other, and there are only four quarters left before the offseason. But the stakes are high for both squads, with both teams playing for something in the final week of the regular season:

• Detroit: despite their crushing loss to the Cowboys in Week 17, the No. 2 seed (aka staying at home until the NFC Championship game) is still in play if they get a win
• Vikings: Yes, at 7-9, Minnesota can still get into the playoffs. However, the IF, AND, and OR statements needed to make that happen look more like lines of code than a path to playing more football in January. But, most importantly, it requires a Vikings’ win for any of it to matter.

So, lucky for us, the chance for players to rest is minimal unless it happens late in the game due to a blowout. And with how the Vikings have played recently, it’s hard to see a lopsided matchup occurring. 

HC Kevin O’Connell’s QB problem has affected his playcalling. Minnesota has run fewer plays over the last two weeks, as Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall have combined for three TDs and five INTs over the same span. However, as we saw in their first meeting, the Lions’ secondary can be forgiving to opposing passing games.

In their first game without T.J. Hockenson, the Vikings essentially tried to replace Pro-Bowl TE with Johnny Mundt (career-high seven targets). The results went about as expected. Hall and Mullens (after Hall got benched during halftime) attempted 11 passes in obvious passing situations and got three first downs. But, overall, the volume went to the right players.

Justin Jefferson didn’t record a catch until the second quarter but soaked up 32.3% of the looks and almost 50.0% of the air yards (49.8%, to be exact). Between him and Jordan Addison (who was dealing with an ankle injury from Week 16), there’s little fantasy value elsewhere in the aerial attack. Even the backfield has some uncertainty tied to it.

Despite Ty Chandler still being the starter, Alexander Mattison has wedged himself into what was a lucrative role for Chandler. Chandler should still fall into the RB2 category for Week 18, but Mattison’s short-yardage role may turn into a vulture-like situation that helps no one in fantasy.

For the Lions, let’s hope they can channel their frustration into a fantasy-point bonanza to close out the regular season. Fortunately, even if Detroit leans into their run-heavy tendencies, as we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, we know where the ball will go.

To his credit, Jared Goff has attempted no fewer than 30 passes in four straight games. Defenses have blitzed him on 40.5% of his dropbacks. And, for the most part, Goff has turned his greatest weakness into a minor strength. The Lions’ QB ranks in the Top 10 for passing success rate (53.3%) and passing yards (373). OC Ben Johnson expected DC Brian Flores to try to heat up Goff. Flores sent five or more on 63.4% of his dropbacks, and Goff responded with 250+ passing yards and a score. And after seeing how susceptible the Vikings’ defense can be against big plays from the Packers, we could be in for a big game from Detroit’s offense.

If one game could encapsulate how to approach the Lions from a fantasy perspective, it was Week 16. Amon-Ra St. Brown (8 targets) and Sam LaPorta (12) combined for 62.5% of Goff’s looks. No other player had more than three passes thrown their way. And with Jameson Williams suffering an ankle injury, we can’t even count on their WR2 for potential fantasy production in Week 18. So, naturally, we should turn to their backfield.

David Montgomery still has the starting role, but Jahmyr Gibbs isn’t too far off an RB1 workload. Gibbs was one of the pass-catchers to benefit from Williams’ absence, as the rookie rusher got three targets. His target share has been oscillating over the last four games, but he’s gotten more work in another area: short yardage. 

Montgomery has typically taken these totes and either converted on a third down or plowed into the end zone for a score. Gibbs's slight uptick in touches from inside the five-yard line is encouraging. However, we all know we’re more likely to see #5 and not #26 if the Lions get into scoring position on Sunday.