New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Week 17 Game Preview

There are no ‘gimmies’ in the NFL.

Like, I get it. It’s Week 17, there’s maybe one viable fantasy play for New England, and the vibes surrounding Buffalo are getting better each week. Our focus should be the Bills. And, heck, maybe the Bills’ are already thinking about their Week 18 matchup against the Dolphins for (potentially) the division.

But trying to fast-forward through an ‘easy’ game last week for Josh Allen and company required a walk-off FG from Tyler Bass to beat Easton Stick. And the Patriots, with a little turnover magic, just notched another win against the Broncos, with Denver as a seven-point favorite. So, before Buffalo can truly punch their tickets for the playoffs, they’ll need to do a bit better than we saw before Christmas.

For New England, the recipe for success is simple. If Bailey Zappe can continue to work the short area of the field and not turn the ball over (second start without an INT last week), New England can work themselves into a favorable game script. Plus, with a full complement of pass-catchers, we’ve seen him throw a bit more over the last three weeks.

Surprisingly enough, Mac Jones has never had a stretch of games with a dropback over expectation rate above 0.0% like Zappe has all season. But Zappe plays within himself. His maximum air yards per attempt was 11.4 against the Chargers in Week 13, but he hasn’t crested 7.0 since. And against HC Sean McDermott’s defense, the backup QB will need to focus on hitting singles versus trying to go for a home run.

We’ve seen Buffalo’s defense neutralize the Cowboys’ offense, and they kept Kansas City at bay. But it doesn’t mean they’re impenetrable. Luckily, slot WRs and pass-catching RBs have at least been able to pull off floor performances against them. And that’s all we need.

Ezekiel Elliott leads the team with 30 targets, with Zappe under center. The next-closest target earner is DeVante Parker at 19. With Rhamondre Stevenson on IR, the former Cowboy has 66.0% of the team’s rushing attempts. No other RB has a touch from inside the 10-yard line. With this type of volume, it’ll be hard to keep Zeke out of the RB2 discussion for Week 17. Even if he’s attached to what we perceive to be a bad offense, the workload makes him startable even in Championship Week.

On Buffalo’s side, I’m genuinely curious to see what the offensive game plan is for this week. I know they’ve won three straight, but interim OC Joe Brady has done it in different ways. We saw a pass-heavy approach against the Chiefs and then a run-first attack over the last two. So, while the victories are stacking up, the fantasy points aren’t as easy to predict.

With Allen passing less, relative to expectation, our hopes of Stefon Diggs coming through for fantasy managers in the playoffs are almost dead. The targets are there (34.3% share, averaging eight targets per game since their bye). The air yards are there (35.4%, leads the team). And yet, Week 16 marked the fifth contest with Diggs having fewer than 50 receiving yards. And despite the ‘Bill Belichick likes to take away a team’s WR1’ narrative, the Patriots’ defense does line up as a good matchup for him.

Other WR1s (Rashee Rice 9-91-1, Diontae Johnson 7-57-1, Keenan Allen 9-58-0) have given us positive results, giving Diggs some runway for a bounce-back game. But it’ll be hard to see the same scenario for James Cook.

New England has allowed one 100-yard rusher all season (Raheem Mostert, Week 2), and Javonte Williams was the first RB to have a rushing TD since Week 10. Cook still took 66.7% of the carries despite putting the ball on the ground twice (and losing one fumble). However, with Allen and Latavius Murray still mixing in when the team gets inside the 5-yard line, Cook falls into the low-end RB2 tier for Week 17.