New York Jets @ New England Patriots Week 18 Game Preview
Jonathan Fuller breaks down the Week 18 matchup between the New York Jets and New England Patriots from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
One of the few games this weekend without playoff implications, this matchup should be all about evaluating talent for the future and jockeying for a slightly higher pick in the NFL Draft come April.
The Patriots are at the bottom of the AFC and are currently slated to have the third overall pick, but at 4-12, they could move down a couple of spots if they win in Week 18. The Jets are 6-10 and should be headed for a top-10 pick regardless of the outcome here, but they could benefit from a loss as well.
We shouldn’t expect a ton of offense in this game that features two of the top eight defenses in the NFL in terms of EPA allowed per play since Week 10. The game total is just 30.5 at the time of writing so it’s fair to say Vegas expects this to be a defensive struggle as well.
The Jets will stick with Trevor Siemian at QB after Zach Wilson failed to clear concussion protocol. New York did manage to find some success last week against a tough Browns defense, but most of that came via Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, who could have their workloads scaled back as the Jets prioritize staying healthy over going for a win.
With Dalvin Cook being waived this week, Israel Abanikanda should continue to step into a bigger role after seeing his snaps and opportunities rise steadily since his Week 11 debut.
On the Patriots' side, it would be easier to imagine the team trying to win if this is indeed Bill Belichick’s last game in charge, as has been rumored recently. Despite their record, New England hasn’t totally given up, winning two of their last four and playing the Bills tough on the road last week.
If this is the end of the Belichick era in New England, going out with a win over the Jets would feel fitting, even if trotting out Bailey Zappe at QB in a meaningless Week 18 game isn’t quite how he would have drawn it up.
From a fantasy perspective, Zeke Elliot is the only player putting up consistent production. Both Demario Douglas and Mike Gesicki have earned volume in the passing game in recent weeks, but I really can’t see either of them delivering in this game unless the Jets' defense truly gives up.
As with a number of matchups this weekend, motivation is the great X factor in this game, and it is extremely difficult to know how that will play out for both overall team strategy and individual player performance. Unless you have some kind of insider info, this game feels like a massive stayaway spot for me for both betting and fantasy purposes.