Packers @ Broncos Week 7 Game Preview
Jonathan Fuller breaks down the Week 7 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
This matchup might be more fascinating than many might expect considering that the Packers and Broncos currently have a combined record of 3-8 on the season.
Green Bay is fresh off their bye and hopefully revitalized after two down performances against the Lions and Raiders in Weeks 4 and 5.
Jordan Love currently ranks dead last in completion percentage among QBs with at least 50 dropbacks, but while that may sound bad on the surface, his low completion rate has been the direct product of his aggressive play.
Among QBs with 50 dropbacks, Love has the deepest average depth of target (aDOT), and he and the Packers now get to face the worst defense in the league. The Broncos' defense ranks poorly against all positions, so on paper at least, this game looks like it could be a get-right spot for the Green Bay offense as they look to get back to .500 on the year and make a push for a playoff berth.
Prior to their bye, the Packers weren’t particularly healthy. Christian Watson was working his way back from a preseason hamstring injury, and Aaron Jones was likewise recovering from a hamstring injury he suffered in Week 1.
Jones should be back this week, and with Watson presumably up to full speed, we may finally get our first real look at this Green Bay offense at full strength in 2023. I expect some big plays and will probably have quite a few rosters with Packers-Broncos game stacks in DFS this week.
The one real concern I have is that this game features two of the NFL’s slowest teams in terms of pace of play. Both Green Bay and Denver average fewer than 58 plays per game this season, which really limits the amount of opportunities their players have each week to produce fantasy points. Fortunately, explosive plays can help offset the lack of volume, and there are plenty of playmakers on both sides of this matchup.
For all of the Broncos' struggles on defense, their offense has at least been serviceable, ranking at least middle of the pack in most offensive statistical categories.
The Packers' defense has been significantly worse at defending opposing RBs than any other position, and the Broncos have been pretty efficient on the ground. Thus far on the season, Denver's RBs have combined to average 4.9 yards per carry, which is currently fourth-best in the NFL.
Unfortunately for fantasy managers, it may be tough to capitalize on the Broncos' perceived advantage on the ground in fantasy when they insist on using a gross committee. Sean Payton split touches between all three of Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine in Week 6.
Williams and McLaughlin seem like the best bets to deliver any real fantasy production, but this split in workload among the Denver backfield will make it tough for any one of their RBs to have a massive game.
The Broncos' WR room is similarly tough to decipher for fantasy. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy have had the best WR usage thus far, but the two have combined to produce just one top-12 weekly WR finish through six weeks.
The Packers are just one-point favorites on the road, so this game is essentially a pick'em, but I do like Green Bay’s chances of getting a road win with all of their offensive playmakers hopefully back to 100% health.