Panthers @ Buccaneers Week 13 Game Preview

I’ll be honest. I need help.

I chose to write about this game BEFORE the news about Frank Reich dropped. 

I actively decided that breaking down a matchup between Bryce Young and Baker Mayfield was something worth pursuing. Think of the broadcast analysis. How many times will the words ‘former Heisman’ or painful puns like ‘Heisman on Heisman violence’ get tossed around?

But now, things (mercifully) got more interesting.

Coaching wasn’t the only hindrance in Carolina. But staff change made them a wild card. And it’s not like the Bucs’ defense is as tough of an out as they were in years past. So, let’s see if there’s any renewed interest in the Panthers and what to expect from a fantasy standpoint.

To be fair, Young and the offense could’ve used a jolt anyway. Despite averaging 34.3 attempts per game over his last four, the first-overall pick had thrown more INTs (4) than TDs (2), and the playcalling was relying more on their rushing attack.

It’s not like we were wanting to start DJ Chark or Jonathan Mingo. But Adam Thielen’s 2-yard Week 12 boxscore likely dinged some playoff hopes. Last Sunday was the second time in his career that he failed to get more than 5 yards while playing over 80% of his team’s snaps. And he fell behind Chark and Mingo in targets and air yards to boot. But there’s still a chance we can see the former Viking give us a solid game on Sunday against Tampa’s defense.

The Buccaneers have allowed a top-12 WR finish in four of their last five games. And while Thielen doesn’t have the same juice as Michael Pittman (10-107-0) or Brandon Aiyuk (5-156-1), Thielen’s slot usage (70.4% interior snap rate) and short depth of target (7.0 air yards per target) puts him in a role conducive to fantasy production. Especially if interim HC Chris Tabor defaults to a quick-passing, heavy play-action approach like he saw the Panthers use last year with P.J. Walker under center (2.27-sec average time to throw, fastest in the league). 

Young doesn’t have the arm strength (yet) and offensive line to let him sit in the pocket and chuck the ball downfield. And given his size (and already missing a game due to injury), getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry may be the best recipe for success.

For Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield continues to play through injury. One could make the case for Kyle Trask starting so the Bucs can plan for 2024. But then, we might not get as much passing volume for his top options.

At 30 years old, Mike Evans is on pace for his tenth straight 1,000-yard season. Evans and Chris Godwin account for 47% of Mayfield’s targets. Without question, they’ll be in starting lineups. And, if you’re looking for a TE streamer, Cade Otton has a 15.4% target share over the last month (third on the team) with the second-most looks from inside the 10-yard line. But if you want to attack the Panthers, opposing ground games have gotten the job done.

There are nine RBs with more than 60.0% of their team’s rushing attempts. Five of those nine have a +10.0% target share to go with their totes. Rachaad White is one of those rushers.

The sophomore ball carrier has found himself in one of the most lucrative situations at his position. He has no competition. White has 78 touches over his last four games. His backups, Chase Edmonds and Ke’Shawn Vaughn, have combined for 20. And with the Panthers allowing an RB1 finish in three of their last four games, White is a must-start option and will likely be a popular click in DFS contests for Week 13.