Panthers @ Saints Week 14 Game Preview
Jonathan Fuller breaks down the Week 14 matchup between the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
This is far from the most exciting game on the slate this Sunday, but there is still plenty on the line for both teams. The Saints need to win to stay in the hunt for the NFC South, while the Panthers are trying desperately to build some momentum for Bryce Young late in the season.
The big question mark for New Orleans is whether or not Derek Carr will be available after entering concussion protocol and being listed with a rib injury following their Week 13 loss to the Lions.
If Carr is unavailable, we’ll get the Jameis Winston experience again, which might not be the worst thing for fantasy. Winston has always been willing to air it out, which could lead to plenty of points in this matchup… if they need to throw, that is.
The Panthers' defense has been extremely vulnerable to opposing RBs this season which puts Alvin Kamara in a smash spot in this game. He has topped 20 opportunities (carries + targets) in each of his past two games, and if he gets anywhere near that much work against Carolina, he should be in line for a big fantasy day.
With Michael Thomas on IR, the Saints’ passing game is even more reliant on Chris Olave, who has seen a 25% and 28% target share in the two games since Thomas went down. Although this matchup isn’t great on paper, the Panthers pass defense isn’t as strong as the fantasy points allowed numbers would have you believe.
In reality, teams just haven’t had to throw against them. The Panthers' defense ranks in the middle of the pack for both EPA allowed per dropback and dropback success rate allowed, which I think is more of a true indicator of how good they are. As a result, I still view Olave as a strong start this week with the expectation he’ll be heavily targeted regardless of who is under center.
Taysom Hill has continued his jack-of-all-trades usage and has actually been utilized in the running game more than anything else. With the uncertainty at QB, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of Hill in the red zone this week, making him a high-upside streamer in leagues where he is TE-eligible.
On the Panthers' side, Chuba Hubbard is the most relevant fantasy piece now that Adam Thielen has completely fallen off the map. Hubbard has delivered back-to-back top-12 fantasy finishes and handled 74% of the team's rush attempts last week.
After Thielen’s hot start to the season, he has failed to crack the top-30 fantasy WRs in four of his last five games and may be giving way to Jonathan Mingo as the top target for Young. Mingo is a decent stash in deeper leagues, thanks to the fact that he has seen a 20+ target share in each of his last three games.
Although you can get away with starting Hubbard in a pinch, the Saints have an above-average defense and are at home, so I would really prefer to avoid playing anyone from Carolina if at all possible.