Raiders @ Rams Week 14 Game Preview
The Raiders should take care of business against the Rams, but the under on what feels like a big total may be the better way to play this game.
Raiders at Rams (+6.0) – 44.5 total
Fans of the movie Major League will remember the scene where the manager (Lou Brown) decides to peel a section of clothing off a cardboard cutout of their villainous owner every time they win, in an attempt to motivate the team. One can only think the Las Vegas Raiders may be up to something similar right now (although let’s pray it’s not with Mark Davis) as they enter this week on a season best three-game win streak and now sit just two games behind the New York Jets, who are currently occupying the last wildcard spot.
Vegas could easily be the team currently in that playoff spot right now, but some early season blunders (who can forget blowing a 20-0 lead against Arizona?) have cost them dearly. The last two weeks has seen this team look decidedly superior to the one we saw at the start of the year and much of the credit can be laid at the feet of Josh Jacobs, who enters this game having produced 482 yards rushing (160.66 yards per game) over his last three starts.
The Rams have a lot of issues right now, but Jacobs will be facing off this week against one of the tougher rush defenses in the NFL. The Rams rank fifth in defensive rush DVOA and have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs as well. It’ll be an interesting battle in the trenches this Thursday, but should be tilted in Jacobs’ favor given the amount of injuries the Rams are currently facing. Aaron Donald (non-participant on Monday) is almost certainly out for this week and the Rams also have Linebackers Travin Howard (hip) and Terrell Lewis (back) on the injury report.
The early projections for Week 13 on Fantasy Life have Jacobs as the clear leader in rush yards for the week and aren’t indicating a slow down. Considering the Rams have produced just 4.7 yards per play on offense the last three weeks, you have to think that eventually their defense (or what’s left of it) wears down and Jacobs grabs some big chunk gains late in the game. Expect another big night from the budding fantasy star and soon-to- be free agent whose future contract size is growing with each passing week.
Even if the Rams hold up Jacobs, the Raiders can always turn to Davante Adams in this spot, who is taking on a beleaguered secondary that has now allowed the second-most receptions and seventh-most TDs to opposing WRs this year. The Rams rank sixth-last in defensive pass DVOA and make for a great match-up for Adams. Volume could be an issue, as Los Angeles has averaged just 16.16 points the last six weeks and Vegas would almost certainly not mind if Derek Carr only had to drop back 20-25 times in this game.
On the other side of the ball, the guessing game of who will start at QB for the Rams continues. John Wolford (who missed Monday’s practice) took four sacks and was hit hard numerous times against the Seahawks. If he can’t play, Bryce Perkins would start. Perkins played the entire game against Kansas City and averaged just 4.34 yards per pass attempt, throwing for 100 yards and completing 13 of 23 passes. Perkins’ best asset is his legs and he did compile 44-yards on the ground against the Chiefs. The Raiders have allowed six different QBs to rush for 20-yards or more this year and allowed four rushing TDs to the position as well. Stylistically, Perkins may actually be the tougher match-up for Vegas but he would also kill a lot of the fantasy value for the remaining Rams WRs (and potentially make them all good under targets for prop betting).
Speaking of Rams WRs, keep an eye on Van Jefferson down the stretch for daily fantasy and betting purposes. Jefferson was a high draft pick who produced 16.0 yards per catch last year and is now playing in an every down role - and essentially acting as the team’s de facto number one WR. He’ll be tied to poor QB play the rest of the year but could benefit from some garbage time down the stretch or matchups against other cellar-dwelling teams.
The Rams are a well coached team and will likely prove somewhat pesky this week, as they did last week against Seattle. The Raiders should take care of business, but the under on what feels like a big total at 44.5 may be the better way to play this game. Don’t expect a ton of points from LA.