Rams @ Cardinals Week 12 Game Preview

Divisional rematches are always weird. Just look at the Pittsburgh-Cleveland game from last week.

I mean, I get it. There’s comfort in familiarity. Or, at least, getting the sense you think you know what you’re up against. These teams just saw each other six weeks ago.

But then again, six weeks ago feels like a lifetime at this point.

Six weeks ago, it was Josh Dobbs against Matthew Stafford. Kyren Williams led the Rams’ backfield, and Keaontay Ingram was at the front of the Cardinals’ ground game. Plus, we had a healthy Cooper Kupp on the field, posting back-to-back 100-yard receiving games.

So, yeah, when comparing Week 6 to now, we might as well be talking about another season.

On the Rams’ side, all eyes are on Kupp, who got stepped on midway through Week 11, missed the rest of the game, and got the “day-to-day” tag from Sean McVay. And if you thought Kupp’s absence took the wind out of the sails for fantasy managers, look how it impacted the Rams’ passing game.

To be fair, it was Stafford’s first game back after suffering a sprained ligament in his thumb. So, a slight downtick in his dropback rate makes sense. Regardless, should Kupp miss Week 12, we know who the WR1 will be in his place.

It’s not just that Puka Nacua led the team in targets, but he hit his highest slot rate (43.1%) in the last month without Kupp on the field. We also saw Tutu Atwell get more work as an intermediate option with 16.4% of the air yards. But if the Cardinals’ defense has shown any particular weakness, it’s been against RBs.

Over Stafford’s last four starts, Royce Freeman leads the backfield with two more totes than Darrell Henderson. But Hendo takes charge where it counts for fantasy:

• Inside 5-yard Line Touches: 5 (Henderson), 4 (Freeman)
• Targets: 12, 0

Freeman’s size has earned him the short-yardage role, but Henderson’s receiving skillset makes him a viable goal-to-go and two-minute option. In formats awarding receptions, Henderson should get the nod, but fantasy managers shouldn’t overlook Freeman in deeper leagues.

For Arizona, health finally isn’t (as much of) an issue for their offense. Since Kyler Murray’s return, we’ve seen their passing rate, at least when compared to the month before he got back on the field.

So, yes, having Murray back has led to more volume. However, it hasn’t really benefitted the one guy we expected to see a jump in production with his QB back.

In Murray’s two games, Marquise Brown leads the team in air yards (ok, that’s a good sign). Plus, he’s tied for the team lead in targets (tied? I thought he was the WR1). Oh wait, I forgot to add he’s only tied at the top among the WRs. They’re all playing second fiddle to their star TE (more on him in a minute).

Even with Murray back, Hollywood sits at a paltry 12.3% TPRR while Rondale Moore connects on explosives downfield, and Greg Dortch generates a first down on half of his looks from Kyler. It puts Brown’s fantasy value back into the WR3 range and Moore and Dortch as upside flex picks. However, based on the Rams’ defensive weaknesses, there’s only one receiving option we should surely be starting.

Trey McBride has earned a 2+% target share in every game since taking over for Zach Ertz. Over McBride’s last four games, he’s in the Top 5 in TPRR (29.2%) and air yard share (31.8%) among all TEs. And at 15.3 PPR PPG, he’s the third-highest scorer at the position.

Murray’s made McBride his WR1 over the last two weeks. And at 2.72 YPRR, the rookie has earned the role and will continue to dominate in Week 12.