Rams @ Cowboys Week 8 Game Preview

At first glance, I thought I had a good read on this game.

The Rams’ passing attack has two top-12 WRs and, after an injury shakeup, a running game creating fantasy production. On the other side, Dak Prescott had one of his cleanest games of the season against the Chargers and had the bye week to retool the offense. Both teams are neutral to pass-heavy and are above the league average in plays run per game. I expected a high game total with a tight spread.

Imagine my confusion when I saw a 45.5 total with the Cowboys as 6.5-point home favorites.

Maybe (read: most likely) I’m missing something. The 49ers and Cardinals are the only teams to drop more than 20 points on Dallas. Perhaps I’m not giving Dan Quinn’s defense enough credit. But let’s look at LA’s offense and see if we need to reset expectations for Week 8.

Nah, I don’t think we do.

Even on a day when Cooper Kupp uncharacteristically dropped two passes, he and Matthew Stafford had Puka Nacua to pick up the slack. There’s no question both WRs should remain in our lineups, as both rank in the Top 12 in both target share and TPRR. And just look at the receivers who’ve slipped behind the Cowboys for big gains:

Marquise Brown, 7-61-1 (23 yard explosive)
Michael Wilson, 2-86-0 (69)
Kendrick Bourne, 3-36-0 (20)
DeVante Parker, 4-33-0 (23)
Brandon Aiyuk, 7-58-0 (23)
Deebo Samuel, 3-55-0 (42)

I see savvy route runners on this list. OK, Kupp should be fine.

There’s a perimeter WR or two on there who can win in contested catch situations. See the Nacua clip above.

And there’s a speedy receiver on there to give Tutu Atwell another week to shine. It all lines up for Stafford to continue slinging it to his primary options. And Week 7 already gave us an idea of what to look for from their ground game.

Oct 3, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson (27) carries the ball in the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

It looked like Darrell Henderson never left LA with his workload on Sunday. Zach Evans didn’t even see the field, which gave Henderson and Royce Freeman all the work to themselves.

Rushing Share: 60.0%, (Freeman) 40.0%
Touches Inside the 10-yard Line: 100.0%, 0.0%
Route Rate: 40.6%, 25.0%
Target Share: 15.4%, 0.0%

Dallas is yet to allow a single 100-yard rusher and has given up just three rushing scores. So RBs like Austin Ekeler (10.2 PPR points) and Saquon Barkley (9.3) had to use their receiving work to buoy their fantasy totals for the day. Since Henderson was the only RB of the two to earn a look from Stafford, he’s the best bet to retain fantasy value in Week 8.

And for Dallas, we finally saw vintage Dak in Week 6. He hit a season-high in PFF’s big-time throw rate while also adding his contributions as a runner. Prescott will still try and fit passes into tight windows. And get punished when it goes awry. But as the Rams rank 16th and 17th in EPA per dropback and passing success rate allowed, with a league-average pressure rate, I’m not worried about Prescott as a passer. My only concern is which of his pass-catchers I should roster.

CeeDee Lamb leads the team in target share, and Jake Ferguson’s 20.7% TPRR is the ninth-highest rate amongst all TEs. If you have either, they’re in your starting lineup. Brandin Cooks isn’t a starter, but you should at least stash him on your bench for now.

Statistically, Michael Gallup will look like the better option. He has more air yards and a greater target share. But only ten catches on 21 targets. Meanwhile, Cooks has a higher catch rate (75.0%), with more first downs generated on a per-target basis over the last three games. Plus, we’ve got a revenge narrative with Cooks playing host to his former team.

Narrative aside, Cooks has had a similar share of red-zone looks and is the only one of the two ancillary WRs to convert on his opportunities. I’d expect to see more work shift his way in what should be a more competitive contest than Vegas currently projects.