Rams @ Ravens Week 14 Game Preview

There’s a chance this game flies under the radar.

I mean, it’s not like folks will just forget about Lamar Jackson or Cooper Kupp. But look at the rest of the Sunday slate. We’ve got six divisional matches littered throughout the day. Everyone’s going to be ready to watch the Bills-Chiefs game anyway. But this contest has similar ramifications.

The Rams are still in the NFC playoff hunt, and the Ravens look like the top talent in the AFC. A win for Baltimore gives them a shot at a playoff bye. Meanwhile, a victory for the Rams highlights the harmony between Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford in what most expected to be a down year for LA. But let’s set aside the narratives and set fantasy expectations in what looks like an underrated game.

For the Rams, let’s hope we get a (mostly) healthy skill-position group. Puka Nacua has a shoulder sprain, and Tyler Higbee suffered a stinger. Plus, since aggravating his surgically repaired ankle, Kupp hasn’t seen more than 20.0% of the team’s air yards. But, at least with Stafford back (thumb injury), the passing volume has returned.

Stafford’s hit more than 30 attempts per game since the bye after averaging 25 a game heading into it. However, without a rushing component to his game, he’s needed multi-score performances to be a viable fantasy QB (a feat he has accomplished three times this year). And against Baltimore’s defense, it’ll be hard to envision Week 14 being the fourth time he hits the mark.

At first glance, nothing works. The Ravens haven’t allowed a QB1 finish all season. But, let’s reverse-engineer the Rams’ problem and see what might work, starting with the WRs that have performed well against their secondary:

• Tee Higgins, 28.9 (PPR points)
• George Pickens, 26.6
• Amon-Ra St. Brown, 23.2
• Keenan Allen, 22.6

I see two power slot receivers and two boundary/contested-catch merchants capable of making big plays at a moment’s notice. Kupp’s 64.8% slot rate and Nacua’s 50.0% contested catch rate (tied for team lead) map right onto what’s worked. But, assuming they’re not at full strength, let’s go one more level and look at the RBs:

• Jahmyr Gibbs, 27.6 (PPR points)
• Joe Mixon, 21.0
• Derrick Henry, 19.3

All three were the primary rushers for their squad. They each found the end zone. But, most importantly, the trio had a target share of over 10.0% against the Ravens. Since his return from injury, Kyren Williams is third on the team in targets (11). Plus, he’s been Stafford’s primary option from inside the 10-yard line.

Baltimore ranks seventh in pass rush, but Stafford has thrown for the most TDs under duress. So, expect an explosive to Tutu Atwell to get the Rams into striking distance and then one of Kupp, Nacua, or Williams to get the Rams into the end zone.

For Baltimore, it’s all about making it to January. A division title is all but guaranteed, and Lamar Jackson is still in the MVP picture. And, for fantasy purposes, what’s gotten them this far has been their pass-friendly approach to moving the ball downfield.

To be fair, Jackson lost Mark Andrews plus one of his offensive linemen in Week 11. So, a step back in their dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate, especially with the bye ahead of them, seemed reasonable. But against the Rams’ defense, let’s hope Jackson comes out firing.

If you wanted a matchup tailormade for Jackson’s #KonamiCode ability, look no further than the top four QB performances against LA:

• Anthony Richardson, 29.6 (PPR points)
• Dak Prescott, 28.1
• Jalen Hurts, 27.3
• Kyler Murray, 20.4

But we’ll need a receiver or two to help him get into the red zone. Odell Beckham is worth a stash on anyone’s playoff roster, as he led the WRs in air-yard share and TPRR in Week 12 despite coming into the game with an injured shoulder. And Isaiah Likely moved into Andrews’s role with a 20.0% target share in his first game without Balitmore’s TE1. But both might have a problem with touches once they get into the green zone.

Gus Edwards has turned into the David Montgomery of the AFC North with a near 2-to-1 lead on the money touches. Keaton Mitchell has been able to slim the backfield down to a two-man committee (45.9% RB rush share over the last two games). But if Lamar has one of his signature outings, fantasy managers with either RB will need an explosive play or goal-line vulture to have a viable outing.