Ravens @ Steelers Week 5 Game Preview

Normally, if a team could potentially be without its starting QB, we’d dismiss the offense. Or, at best, downgrade it.

But after almost four weeks of Kenny Pickett, I don’t know if that’s the case.

The Steelers’ QB ranks 32nd out of 34 starters in success rate while also ranking bottom 12 in explosive passing plays. Only Anthony Richardson has thrown for fewer first downs. And he missed a game. Creating an even worse look for Pittsburgh, it’s not like the Ravens have been a fully operational battle station to start the year.

Baltimore brought in Zay Flowers through the draft and signed Odell Beckham Jr. to a deal during free agency. Plus, Rashod Bateman was making his way back from last season’s injuries. But Bateman and Beckham have just 16 targets between them. Regardless, it hasn’t stopped Lamar Jackson from playing the best football of his career.

Dec 26, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in the second half at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Jackson ranks Top 5 in passing success rate, adjusted completion percentage, and explosive play rate. All this while he’s been relying on the rookie Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Nelson Agholor. And Jackson can still get it done on the ground. He’s behind only Jalen Hurts in rushing attempts and averaging 0.22 EPA per rush.

For reference, Justin Herbert is averaging 0.19 EPA per dropback.

Think about that. Jackson’s rushing is nearly as efficient as a Justin Herbert pass.

And while his pass-game options aren’t as enticing as we thought they’d be back in August, it’s not like the Steelers’ secondary has been all that imposing.

Week 1: Brandon Aiyuk, 8-129-2
Week 2: Amari Cooper, 10-90-0
Week 3: Davante Adams, 20-172-2
Week 4: Nico Collins, 9-168-2

Flowers leads the team in targets (28.4% target share), but Andrews isn’t too far behind (17.6%). You won’t think twice about keeping Andrews in his starting spot. But if you’ve been waiting for a chance to trot out Flowers, it’ll be on Sunday against the Steelers.

For Pittsburgh, it’s hard to find many fantasy starters because they’ve lost so many starters. Diontae Johnson is still on IR, and Pat Freiermuth will likely miss this contest. It leaves us with George Pickens, Allen Robinson, Calvin Austin, and the RBs. But let’s think through how this will go for Mitch Trubisky now that he’s (likely) back in the saddle.

Baltimore ranks sixth in pressure rate with the second-most sacks on the season (15). Their secondary can be beaten as they’re missing key personnel. But you need the right QB to pull the trigger. And Trubisky hasn’t usually been that guy.

Trubisky had 194 dropbacks in 2022. Defenses pressured him on 57 of them (30.9%). The results are…unfavorable. His passing success rate (38.6%) was lower than Sam Ehlinger’s (31%) with a worse adjusted completion percentage than Davis Mills. But he could at least chuck it deep if he had the opportunity.

Trubisky’s 17.2% deep-ball rate was higher than Pickett’s. It gives Pickens, who’s assumed the WR1 role in the interim, some viability as a WR3/FLEX. His assured volume provides a floor in PPR leagues, and a long play (he’s had a gain of 15 or more yards in three straight weeks) gives him access to a ceiling. At WR25 in our ranks, he has a fair shot at keeping your roster alive. The RBs will need some help, though.

The Ravens have allowed just one 100-yard rusher (Zack Moss) but have yet to give up a rushing TD. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren saw his highest snap share in Week 4 (48.2%), out-targeted Najee Harris, and has been the more efficient runner since Week 2.

Trubisky will need as many options as possible to keep from getting swallowed by Baltimore’s pass rush. Harris may get the start, but Warren’s FLEX appeal in PPR leagues looks bright in Week 5.