Saints @ Falcons Week 12 Game Preview

You see boring QB play in this game. OK, fine. I’ll give you that.

But we’ve still got a shot at some fantasy goodness here.

Derek Carr has the fourth-highest deep-ball rate, which has enabled highlight-reel plays from Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Meanwhile, after much public outcry, Arthur Smith gave Bijan Robinson a larger workload, and the rookie rusher posted top-20 efficiency marks among all RBs with more than 20 carries.

With both teams capable of playing up-tempo, we could be in for a back-and-forth matchup. And since they’re both coming off their bye, each has a wrinkle or two we might see. Let’s start with the Saints’ offense.

The Saints are 16th in early-down passing rate, and Carr is 22nd in EPA per play amongst QBs. But with New Orleans’ play volume, it hasn’t mattered much for fantasy purposes.

At worst, Carr has fallen slightly below expectation in his dropback rate. Regardless, at 8.3 air yards per attempt (eighth-most amongst his peers), Carr hucking it down the field has worked out for his pass-catchers. But at first glance, going up against the Falcons doesn’t look like a great matchup for his WRs.

But let’s look at the positives first. Atlanta ranks 29th against TEs, putting Taysom Hill back on our radar. The hybrid weapon has the most red-zone touches of any WR or TE in the league. However, in deep leagues, Juwan Johnson’s 66.3% route rate and 11.1% target share give him some appeal. And, to be honest, the WRs aren’t in as bad of a spot as it relates to one specific aspect of the Falcons’ secondary:

• (On Deep Passes) Completion Percentage Allowed: 42.3% (4th-most since Week 5)
• Yards Allowed: 444 (8th-most)

Michael Thomas’ knee injury will likely have him sidelined for at least this week. The team has brought Marquez Callaway back, and rookie WR A.T. Perry got some run before their bye. But Rashid Shaheed should garner the most attention from fantasy managers.

Shaheed’s route rate jumped to 91.9%, and, most importantly, he had a 23.3% (tied for the second-highest share) in the three quarters after Thomas left the field in Week 10. If you’re looking for some punch at your flex spot, Shaheed’s speed is a viable option you may be able to find on your waiver wire.

On the Falcons’ side, Desmond Ridder retaking the starting gig isn’t much of a surprise. However, you can almost clearly pick out the lone start for Taylor Heinicke when looking at the team’s DBOE over the last month.

But it’s not like we’re relying on many options from the passing game. Kyle Pitts (18.3% target share) and Drake London (16.5%) have the most targets, and neither have a TD to show for their efforts. Atlanta’s star TE (I’m talking about Pitts here, not Jonnu Smith) has seen a bump in targets on a per-route basis and his second-highest target share on the season. And since his opportunity increase came at Smith’s expense, Pitts has low-end TE1 value for Week 12.

Regardless, Bijan’s usage will be the stat everyone will be monitoring. Whether the public scrutiny or Arthur Smith finding better ways to get Robinson involved, we saw more of Atlanta’s OTHER skill-position player they used a high draft pick on:

• Rushing Share: 55.0% (Week 10), 44.9% (Weeks 1-9, omitting the Week 7 headache game)
• Route Rate: 85.2%, 69.6%
• Green-Zone Rush Sharing: 50.0%, 23.8%

While Tyler Allgeier still has contingent value, it looks like Robinson is back in the RB1 role, and we should be able to start him coming out of the bye confidently.