Saints @ Rams Week 16 Game Preview
Jonathan Fuller breaks down the Week 16 matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
This Thursday Night Football matchup is key for these two 7-7 NFC Playoff contenders. If New Orleans can win, that will put the pressure on Tampa Bay to keep pace in the race for the NFC South. Meanwhile, the Rams are currently the #7 seed but are in a log jam of 7-7 teams in the conference standings and need to win to stay on the right side of the playoff line.
The Rams have been one of the most efficient offenses since Week 10, ranking fourth in dropback EPA per play and eighth in rushing EPA per play.
The Saints' defense has been strong against the pass but vulnerable to opposing run games in recent weeks, ranking 4th in dropback EPA per play but 27th in rush EPA per play over their last four games. This sets up well for Kyren Williams, who ranks as the RB2 in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks for Week 16 and is likely to be the engine of the Rams offense. Williams has averaged 29.6 opportunities per game over the Rams' last three contests and should remain locked into one of the league’s most valuable roles.
The rest of the Rams' offense has been a bit more hit or miss as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have each delivered big games as well as duds over the past four weeks. Even Tyler Higbee managed to pop up for a TE2 performance in Week 12 for one of his few fantasy-relevant performances of the year.
The common denominator here is that Matthew Stafford has been playing at an elite level over the last month but is effectively spreading the ball around, leading to rotating spike weeks for his pass catchers.
From a fantasy perspective, both Kupp and Nacua are locked into lineups, and they have each averaged 7.5 targets per game over their last four games. Both are top-15 WRs in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks
On the Saints side, Chris Olave is expected to return to the lineup after sitting last week with an ankle injury. This should be a boost for the whole offense, and he immediately slots back into fantasy lineups as a strong WR2 play.
Alvin Kamara’s usage continues to be really strong, as he has averaged just under 20 opportunities per game over his last four games. This usage has him right behind Kyren Williams as the RB3 for the week even though he is taking on a Rams defense that has allowed the fewest points to opposing RBs so far this season.
The Rams are four-point favorites at home, which feels about right. Los Angeles would be the more fun team to see in the playoffs, in my opinion, so I’ll be hoping they can get the win at home.