Seahawks @ 49ers Week 14 Game Preview

All I can think about is the Wild Card matchup between these two last season.

The Seahawks were riding high on Geno Smith’s comeback tour, got into the playoffs, and faced a juggernaut team. San Francisco walked in with a 9.5-point nod from Vegas, and Seattle gave it their best. But they couldn’t endure the 49ers’ playmakers.

Fast-forward nearly 11 months to the day, and we’re almost in the same spot.

Brock Purdy and Co. are 10.5-point favorites. Seattle is still fighting for a chance at the playoffs. And they have to go through San Francisco to keep their hopes alive. So, in the (signed) words of DK Metcalf, let’s see if the Seahawks can stand on business in Week 14. 

Despite the loss against the Cowboys, Smith put on one of his best performances of the season. It was the first time since Week 14 of last year he threw three TD passes, and 334 passing yards was his second-highest mark in ’23. And, structurally, Seattle’s offense should be able to approach this game similarly.

Smith has maintained a healthy 5% dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate with a top-10 aDOT of 8.4 yards. Coincidentally, if there’s one way to attack the 49ers’ defense, it’s through the air.

However, Smith may be short on passing options. 

Zach Charbonnet had earned target shares of 14.8% and 5.3% in his two starts without Kenneth Walker. But now the rookie RB has a knee bruise. The other ancillary options (Noah Fant, Jake Bobo) haven’t been consistently involved enough for fantasy purposes. So, it looks like it comes down to the other freshman on Seattle’s squad.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba got a season-high 11 looks from Smith against the Cowboys. While the former Buckeye worked in the short area of the field (4.5 air yards per target), he was the most-targeted receiver when Smith was under pressure. And with his QB under duress on 47.2% of his dropbacks the last time they faced SF, JSN should be in for another heavy workload alongside Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

For San Francisco, what else is there to say?

Start everyone. Even Jauan Jennings, apparently. (Only if you’re desperate, in a deep league—you know what I’m saying.)

However, there’s some volatility with a “fire all the cannons” approach to rostering 49ers’ skill players. Because while they’ve scored over 30 points in three of their last four games, voluminous wouldn’t be the best word to describe San Francisco’s passing game.

Brock Purdy operates with precision and aggression. They’re two things we love but leave little room for error with respect to fantasy production. He’s thrown more than 30 times in a game just four times. Meanwhile, it’s been opposing ground games that have gotten the best of the Seahawks.

Case in point: the last time Seattle faced San Francisco. 

The 49ers scored four times, and three came on the ground. Of course, Christian McCaffrey continued his (new) TD streak and has held a 76.8% share of the RB carries since their bye. However, with Deebo Samuel back, he’s taken touches away from the former Panther with at least one attempt per game since his return. But it’s not just Samuel’s backfield work that gives him top-12 upside in this game.

Deebo led all SF pass-catchers in targets against Seattle (30.0% share) and then posted the most receiving yards against the Eagles. But here’s the kicker: he had a 0.7% air yard share against Philadelphia; 115 of his 116 yards came after the catch. With a WR that can beat you with volume or with his legs (or both), Samuel is trending to reclaim his role over Brandon Aiyuk as the WR1 ahead of a pivotal game in Week 14.