Steelers @ Browns Week 11 Game Preview

Voodoo. Black magic. Grit. That dawg in them.

One of those things has to be a reason for both teams having six wins. Otherwise, it makes no sense. But then again, when is football rational?

Pittsburgh’s opponents have outgained them in every game this season. Not just once or twice. It’s been all season. And yet, they sit in second place in the AFC North. However, it’s not like the Browns are far behind in the standings or in the amount of chaos they’ve had to endure.

Cleveland’s already had three different QBs start for them, along with a rash of injuries to their backfield and offensive line. But their defense is generating 0.25 EPA per play. For reference, Miami’s offense, with the most dynamic passing game in the league, is averaging 0.12 EPA per play. 

Divisional games already make it difficult to visualize how this game will go. A rematch ratchets the complexity up even more. But I’ll take a reasonable approach to each offense and see where the fantasy goodness lies.

For Pittsburgh, let’s start with their offensive tendencies. After opening the season with a balanced passing game, OC Matt Canada has taken more off of Kenny Pickett’s plate over the last month.

As a result, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens (who were once viable starters) become more volatile. I know I like to use target shares to give an idea of how much volume a pass-catcher gets relative to his teammates. But look at these raw numbers for both since their bye:

• Johnson: 6, 14, 9, 4
• Pickens: 8, 5, 5, 4

An 18.2% target share already sounds like a WR2 workload. But four targets should force us to re-evaluate both WRs. Johnson, with the higher air yard share and shorter aDOT, falls into the high-end WR3 in PPR leagues. Pickens becomes a risk-reward flex as he leads the team in downfield looks. But with the team leaning more on their running game, the fantasy value lies in their backfield, with one RB standing out.

The team announced Jaylen Warren as the starter (although Najee Harris was the first RB to earn a touch on Sunday), and his peripherals had already signaled he was ready to take the role. His 5.03 adjusted yards after contact per rush is two full yards over Harris’s (2.92), and Warren has four times as many explosive runs.

If you’re rostering Harris, you’re hoping for a short touchdown run. Warren is yet to earn a touch from inside the 10-yard line, giving Harris some mid-range RB3 appeal. However, after watching Keaton Mitchell burst past Cleveland for a 39-yard score, Warren should be closer to an RB2 for Week 11.

On Cleveland’s side, their offense has been something of a mixed bag since Deshaun Watson returned.

On the one hand, Watson has ranked 25th and 19th in passing success rate over his last two games. He’s league average in CPOE (+1.1%) and has a PFF passing grade (58.3) worse than Taylor Heinicke and Josh Dobbs when pressured. And we can see it in the results, as he’s yet to crack 225 passing yards after coming back.

But at least we know where his passes are going when he drops back.

Amari Cooper leads the WRs in targets with a 23.3% share since Week 9. If you’re rostering him, he’s likely a starter (depending on who you’ve got). That’s easy analysis. However, we’ve got other options.

David Njoku is right behind Cooper with a 22.8% target share over a five-game span. His 23.8% TPRR ranks first among the primary Cleveland pass-catchers, and he has the most red-zone looks. With the Steelers ranking sixth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs, Njoku is a fringe top-12 option, but I’ve got one more for you.

Elijah Moore’s usage increased from Week 9 to last Sunday. Watson took fewer shots downfield and focused on his intermediate throws, allowing Moore to resurface as a viable fantasy option. The former Jet had the second-most looks in their comeback effort in Week 10, and his 21.9% share was his highest mark since Week 3. As the Steelers’ defense continues to be weakened by injuries, Moore has WR3 appeal in Week 11.