Titans @ Jaguars Week 11 Game Preview

Historically, this feels like it’d be a marquee matchup pitting two divisional rivals against each other.

Remember when fantasy analysts would circle this game on the calendar so they could recite their Derrick Henry stats on podcasts? “King Henry has rushed for 100 or more yards against the Jaguars in every game against them going back to 2020.”

Trevor Lawrence even has a decent track record in these games. He’s finished as a QB1 in half of their meetings. But neither offense looks like it can deliver the same type of fantasy production as we’ve seen in years past.

Lawrence has three top-12 finishes on the season, and his on-field metrics mirror more of his freshman year than what we saw in ’22. Meanwhile, the Titans’ offensive changes have stymied some of Henry’s output. Tennessee has averaged the tenth-fewest red-zone plays with Will Levis under center. Regardless, there’s some fantasy goodness to extract here. Let’s start on the visitor’s side.

While I introduced the switch to Levis as a negative for the running game, it’s been a boon for their passing attack. 

Tennessee’s dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate has steadily increased since Levis took over as the starter. It’s hard to see them becoming the Chiefs or Bengals in terms of sustained passing rate over the rest of the season. However, with Levis’s typical target depth (11.2 air yards per target, first among all QBs over the last three weeks), the increased volume provides a stable floor for his pass-catchers.

DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t missed a beat with Levis as the starter. He averaged 7.3 targets per game over the three weeks before their bye and has earned 8.3 per game since Week 8. His 39.3% air yard share leads the team by a 15-percentage-point margin. There’s not much question about his claim to a starting spot in Week 11. However, the backfield carries some curiosity.

Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) celebrates his touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023.

Henry leads the backfield with 79.4% of the RB carries with Levis. However, Tyjae Spears has posted similar efficiency marks (4.5 adjusted yards after contact per carry to Henry’s 3.4) with almost twice as many targets (15 to 9). And with the Jaguars ranked 16th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs, Spears has viability as a flex option in deeper leagues for Week 11.

For Jacksonville, our concerns start at the top.

Trevor Lawrence sitting at the league average in EPA per play and tenth in passing success rate doesn’t worry me. But his 7.6 aDOT is a career low. And a 23.1% pressure-to-sack ratio is a career high. So he’s throwing shorter passes with middling efficiency while still taking sacks.

OK, now I’m worried.

The Jaguars’ offensive line ranks 31st in pass block win rate. And you can kind of tell how their play has impacted Lawrence and the passing attack by who gets targeted:

• Christian Kirk, 22.7% (TPRR), 9.1 (Air Yards per Target)
• Evan Engram, 22.1%, 3.6
• Calvin Ridley, 19.1%, 12.5
• Travis Etienne, 17.6%, -.06

Ridley’s usage and on-field deployment stick out (not in a good way). He runs the most downfield routes and spends the fewest snaps on the inside (13.6% slot rate). In its current design, Ridley doesn’t match this offense. But against the Titans, there’s some hope.

Perimeter WRs have smoked Tennessee’s secondary:

• Mike Evans, 10-143-1
• Amari Cooper, 8-116-1
• Chris Olave, 10-112-0

Ridley’s TPRR was on the rise heading into the bye, but the 49ers’ pass rush and coverage caused it to drop. While Tennessee can boast a similar ability to put QBs in a bind (sixth in pass rush win rate), the Titans’ inability to keep up with WRs downfield will allow Ridley to reconnect with his QB on Sunday.