Vikings @ Packers Week 8 Game Preview

I never know what to expect when approaching divisional games.

There’s an “I know what you know” aspect to these matchups that’s tough to quantify. Like, in Week 1 of last season, Justin Jefferson stomped on the Packers with both feet to the tune of 184 yards and two scores. But the Packers adjusted, prompting Jaire Alexander to griddy on JJettas in their rematch.

But the only shots of Jefferson we’ll see will be of him on the sideline. And there’s no Aaron Rodgers on the other side to boost Green Bay’s offense. The 43-point total puts a damper on fantasy expectations. But with the way the Vikings’ looked on Monday night, we could get a classic shootout at Lambeau Field.

On the Minnesota side, let’s give Kirk Cousins some credit. For pocket passers without much mobility, it’d be understandable if their efficiency cratered without their top option. But in the two weeks without the WR2 in PPR PPG, the veteran QB has been just fine:

Fantasy Rank: 13th
Adjusted Completion Percentage: 4th
EPA per dropback: 10th
Passing success rate: 16th

On a team that’s been pass-heavy in over half their games this season, I’ll take it. Cousins’ willingness to keep firing downfield has been the catalyst for Jordan Addison’s breakout while keeping T.J. Hockenson managers happy (third-highest target share amongst all TEs without Jefferson). But the Vikings running game still has some problems.

Like, for example, scoring touchdowns. No Minnesota rusher has found the end zone on the ground. However, Alexander Mattison sits at RB21 on the season, so it’s not all bad. Well, until you look at his peripherals.

I’m not calling for folks to roster Cam Akers (yet), but he’s doing just enough to take away from Mattison. When, clearly, he needs all the volume he can get. Through the first half on Monday night, Akers took on 40.0% of the RB carries, matched Mattison in efficiency, and tacked on an extra explosive play. The former Rams RB was also the one on the field earning touches on the Vikings’ final drive to salt away the game.

Mattison has broken fewer tackles on a per-carry basis than Dalvin Cook and is a less efficient receiver than Miles Sanders. And Akers is now biting into his workload. Green Bay has been allowing the fifth-most points to RBs this season, so this may be a bounce-back spot for Mattison. If not, you might see Akers in the waiver column for Week 9.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) celebrates a victory against the Chicago Bears as he leaves the field during their football game Sunday, September 10, 2023, at Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. Green Bay won 38-20.

For the Packers, HC Matt Lafleur needs to turn a few more dials to get Jordan Love back on track. And on the bright side, we’re starting to see some adjustments:

Play-Action Rate: 25.2% (Weeks 1-3), 28.4% (Weeks 4-7, Week 6 bye)
Air Yards per Target: 10.6, 8.2
Dropbacks over Expectation: +1%, -3%

But the results haven’t been there. Even while they were winning or keeping games close earlier in the season, Love’s CPOE sat at -8.1% (34th out of 36 qualifiers). And if the Packers wanted to live in this “downfield, explosive passing attack” world, his lagging accuracy (in hindsight) screamed regression. So, with at least one interception in four straight games, we’re left wondering what to do with the Packers’ passing game.

Christian Watson getting in a practice to start the week is a good sign. Since his return, he’s second in targets and first in air yard share. Romeo Doubs can still claim the WR1 title. However, if we’re expecting LaFleur to take more off Love’s plate, it gives Watson the edge moving forward.

Of the two, Watson has the higher slot rate (22.1%) with an equal number of looks in the intermediate areas of the field. Plus, after three games back, Watson’s 8.4 YAC per reception dwarfs Doubs’ paltry 2.6. If the goal is to put Love in more advantageous situations, players like Watson, along with Aaron Jones, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave, give the offense a chance to become more efficient against their divisional rival.