Divisional Round Underdog DFS Picks and Strategy: Target Colston Loveland in Drafts

We have a fun slate of games on tap in the Divisional Round this weekend. Saturday kicks off with Bills at Broncos followed by 49ers at Seahawks for the night game. Sunday afternoon we get Texans at Patriots followed by Rams at Bears. Three of these four matchups have a spread of 3.5 points or fewer. The Seahawks are the only heavy favorite on the slate, but Sam Darnold just popped up on the injury report which is an important status to monitor.

Divisional Round Underdog Slate Overview

The first thing that stands out to me when looking at this set of games is the fact that we have three of the NFL's top four pass defenses in action this weekend. That makes for an interesting dynamic where we have to decide how much to weigh the matchup vs. the talent for players like Josh Allen, Drake Maye and Brock Purdy. Of course, with only eight starting QBs this weekend you will probably want to draft these guys on some teams if you are playing meaningful volume.

Weather doesn't look to be too significant of a factor this weekend, which is lucky considering all four games are outdoors in January. The most significant weather looks like it will be in Chicago, where it will be extremely cold and somewhat windy. That game does still have the highest total of the weekend, so drafters need to decide whether they want to embrace the game with the highest scoring potential or shy away from the weather concerns. Personally, I'm still excited about the shootout potential of this game and will be stacking it in a high percentage of my drafts.

Underdog's divisional contests are still six-person drafts like normal, the last slate of the season where that is the case. With just eight NFL teams to draft from, that places extra importance on the onesie positions (QB and TE) because there just aren't that many good plays at those positions. Let's now take a look at ADP for each position and try to identify where other drafters might be making mistakes.

Underdog ADP Analysis

Quarterback ADP

Quarterback Projections

There are no major surprises with the QB ADP landscape. My biggest takeaway from comparing ADP to the Fantasy Life projections was that the tier breaks seem to be in the right spots and you can stack most QBs pretty easily. Allen is a bit of a wild card in drafts because he is usually a first-round pick, but you don't need to stack him so the drafter who selects him can go in any direction.

Ultimately I do want exposure to all eight QBs on the slate and when the options are condensed like this I am always interested in the guys who are going undrafted. Some of my biggest scores in Underdog's weekly contests over the years have come when I was willing to take the QB that nobody else wanted (shoutout Andy Dalton). This week that would mean selecting Sam Darnold and C.J. Stroud, both of whom have reasonable matchups. In particular, I haven't seen Stroud go in many of my drafts so I will be taking some shots at Texans stacks as a way to exploit the field's overconfidence on who the best plays are.

Running Back ADP

Running Back Projections

The projections at the RB position generally align with ADP, except for the Seahawks backfield, where drafters are taking Kenneth Walker ahead of Zach Charbonnet despite the latter having a higher projection.

No one is surprised to see Christian McCaffrey at the top of the RB ADP and projections, but the 3.4-point projection gap is noteworthy. In fact, CMC is the highest projected non-QB playing this weekend, which is noteworthy because he is generally the third player off the board in Underdog drafts. I don't disagree with the premium being placed on the elite WRs, but if you are someone who just wants to jam the highest projected player you can do that at a discount in these contests.

I was a little bit disappointed to see RJ Harvey going so high because I love his matchup against the Buffalo run defense. He is still a bit undervalued relative to the Fantasy Life projections, but not to the degree that I hoped. I expect Denver to lean heavily on its run game to exploit the positive matchup and attempt to keep the ball away from Allen.

Toward the bottom of the draftable range there are several intriguing options with TreVeyon Henderson and Blake Corum, who have both shown significant weekly upside but have fallen out of favor with drafters due to quiet performances in recent weeks.

Wide Receiver ADP

Wide Receiver Projections

I mentioned the significant projections gap at the top of the RB position, but we have an even more extreme dynamic at the WR position where the WR3 is projected more than 6.5 points lower than the top two options. Despite that gap, Davante Adams is being drafted right around the turn of the first to second round in Underdog drafts. While this seems a bit rich based on projections, Davante's role in the red zone and ability to put up a multi-TD game makes him a higher variance player and probably justifies this ADP in top-heavy tournaments.

What stood out to me the most when comparing ADP to projections at the WR position was the fact that DJ Moore is the first Bears WR off the board despite projecting well below Luther Burden and not that far ahead of Rome Odunze. The Bears passing game will be an important piece to get right if that game shoots out and Moore has been good in recent weeks, but he is my least favorite selection at cost among Chicago pass catchers.

I don't expect Nico Collins to play this weekend, but the ability to swap him out for a different player (as long as you only draft him while he's listed as questionable) makes him a worthwhile dart throw on the off chance he clears concussion protocol. This gives you more time to gather information on who to swap to, but keep in mind the swap won't happen until he is ruled out which could leave you with options from just the Sunday games if he isn't ruled out until inactives are announced Sunday morning. It is a tricky situation so I won't be selecting him often, but there are some viable swap options who regularly go undrafted which makes him a high-upside, low-risk selection.

Tight End ADP

Tight End Projections

There is one clear elite option at the TE position and drafters are acting accordingly. Colston Loveland has emerged as the Bears top receiving threat over the last few weeks and that looks set to continue in a Divisional Round that is lacking for elite playmakers at the position. The price might appear steep, but I could make a strong case that Loveland should be going even higher than he is. I want to be above market on him as the best bet in the Chicago passing game.

Looking further down the list at TE, you will see a lot of people stacking their TE selection with their QB which makes sense. I will certainly be doing that often myself, but it is important to mix things up too because a single TD could be enough to propel a guy who isn't regularly drafted into a top option at the position.

If I take one of the QBs with rushing upside (Allen, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams) I like to build some teams where I take an unstacked TE with an ADP after 30. For example, if I take Allen in the first round I tend to like the builds where I take RB and WR in the middle rounds and then intentionally avoid Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox in favor of grabbing AJ Barner or one of the Rams TEs. It isn't the only way I am drafting, but it is one way to get different from a lot of other Josh Allen teams.

The Best Underdog Divisional Round Plays

There are two clear projections darlings this week who have a significant advantage in projected points over the rest of their position: Loveland and McCaffrey. Drafters agree with those projections and are taking these guys as the clear top option at their position.

As I mentioned in the RB section, Harvey is one of my favorite selections because the Bills run defense is a notable outlier among the remaining playoff teams. They are legit bad at stopping opposing rushing attacks and the Broncos have had an extra week to rest and prepare.

Further down the draft board, Jayden Higgins is a last-round pick and is going well after Christian Kirk, but our projections have him as the WR9 on the slate which makes him one of the better value plays. This assumes Collins is out, which looks like it will be the case. I talked about liking Stroud as a leverage play in the QB section and stacking him with Higgins is my favorite way to double down on a potential mistake by the rest of the field.

Player to Scroll Down for in Underdog Drafts

An important part of the Underdog draft games is identifying players who are being drafted less than 100% of the time who are just as good of selections as players being selected every time. Hitting on a player who isn't regularly drafted is one of the best ways to vault your team to the top of the leaderboard. The name that stands out to me is Pat Bryant, who has emerged as the WR2 in Denver down the stretch. He did miss a few games with injury which may have overshadowed his breakout to some degree, but the rookie has had at least 5 targets in each of his last five games. Now that the Broncos have had a week off, I am expecting Bryant to be fully installed as the second option in the passing game. He isn't being selected all that often on Underdog, but he is one of my favorite last-round picks.

At the RB position, my favorite late-round selection is Corum. The Rams have finally committed to a true RB rotation, which has resulted in Corum getting double-digit carries in five of his last six games. The Bears don't have a particularly strong run defense and with the cold weather and wind we could see both teams lean into the run. You could make a similar case for Kyle Monangai on the Bears, but I slightly prefer Corum and the Rams rushing attack.