Underdog DFS Strategy For The Conference Championships: Take a Swing on Jarrett Stidham?
DFS

Underdog DFS Strategy For The Conference Championships: Take a Swing on Jarrett Stidham?

We are down to the nitty-gritty as far as DFS goes—only two more slates, and this is the final one where we can draft teams on Underdog.

Fortunately, Underdog is sending us off in style with a $40,000 top prize in the Battle Royale Conference Championship contest. 

These drafts are slightly different from what we are used to on larger slates, however. The scoring and roster settings are the same, but these are only four-person drafts because there are only four starting quarterbacks (imagine having to select Jalen Milroe because you waited at QB in a six-person draft).

To prepare for drafting teams this week, I thought I'd compare our Xfinity projections with ADP and see where we might have an edge vs. the field.

Feel free to apply these insights to other fantasy decisions, including salary cap DFS, pick 'ems and prop bets, and of course, last-minute Guiloteenie waivers (there's one final run Sunday at 11 a.m. ET).

Underdog Battle Royale DFS Conference Championship Strategy

Quarterback Projections vs. Underdog Battle Royale ADP

Underdog ADP is directly in line with our projections as far as the order, but there is an interesting angle to exploit …

Drafters are terrified of getting stuck with Stidham, which means Darnold is getting overdrafted relative to his projection. He projects much closer to Stidham than he does Stafford, and yet his ADP is much closer to Stafford.

Takeaway: If you don't get a top-two QB, don't panic-select Darnold early. I'd much rather select a WR like Courtland Sutton and Kayshon Boutte or a TE like Hunter Henry in that range than take Darnold. The one exception would be if you want to ensure a stack with JSN, but otherwise, it's worth sacrificing the one-point gap in projection and going down to Stidham.

Running Back Projections vs. Underdog Battle Royale ADP

The RB ADPs are fairly efficient as well, but there are two situations to highlight …

1) We are lower on Kyren than the market. He's our RB4 via projection, and yet he's the RB2 in ADP. The Seahawks have the toughest defense for opposing RBs per our DvP tool, so it definitely makes sense to exercise caution. I prefer Stevenson to him.

2) The Broncos backfield is a mess right now. Payton refused to trust Harvey last week despite an incredible rushing matchup vs. the Bills. To make things even more tricky, Dobbins—who we are not currently projecting in—returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. If he does suit up, Harvey is being way overdrafted.

Takeaway: Prioritize Stevenson on teams where you don't get Walker and let people overdraft Kyren and Harvey. Also, take a lot of Dobbins at the end of drafts. If he does play, he's a smash who should be going top-10. If he doesn't, you can just swap him to McLaughlin, who is unlikely to get drafted in the majority of these.

Wide Receiver Projections vs. Underdog Battle Royale ADP

Similar to RBs, the WR ADPs are pretty efficient, but the Broncos once again provide us with the most interesting wrinkles …

Franklin (hamstring) and Bryant (concussion) both exited the Divisional Round game early. This is particularly notable because Bryant had earned three targets in the first quarter before exiting. In their absence, Mims (eight targets) and Humphrey (five) picked up the slack. Both Franklin and Bryant practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday, however, giving both a shot to play this weekend.

Takeaway: Be careful with Mims and Humphrey because they'll both likely go to zero if Franklin and Bryant return. Similar to Dobbins, prioritize Bryant at the end of drafts. Even though we are not currently projecting him in, he'll be an awesome selection if active. Payton was clearly installing him as the focal point of the passing game. 

Tight End Projections vs. Underdog Battle Royale ADP

Are you noticing a theme? The ADPs are once again fairly efficient as far as ordering the TEs on the slate.

Henry and Barner are the top two TEs on the slate, but I think Parkinson is a much more fragile selection as the TE3. Not only does he not project that much differently than Engram, but his teammates—Higbee and Ferguson—would likely be the ones directly responsible for him not hitting his projection.

Takeaway: Considering we've seen the various Rams TEs each pop up for big games randomly, I like leaning into that variance and taking stabs at Higbee and Ferguson. They are both free, come with low ownership and are great leverage on the TE3. 

Final Thoughts

These are tricky slates because there aren't many different options or ways to achieve uniqueness. If doing a lot of drafts, make sure you are tracking your combos and not duping yourself across entries.

The biggest edge to press on this slate is embracing all of the Broncos uncertainty with Dobbins, Bryant and Franklin, as well as the Rams TEs.

Good luck.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Jarrett Stidham
    JarrettStidham
    QBDENDEN
    Proj
    14.08
  2. Courtland Sutton
    CourtlandSutton
    WRDENDEN
    PPG
    7.82
    Proj
    9.06
  3. Kayshon Boutte
    KayshonBoutte
    WRNENE
    PPG
    7.00
    Proj
    7.15
  4. Hunter Henry
    HunterHenry
    TENENE
    PPG
    10.26
    Proj
    7.31