Texans vs. Steelers DraftKings DFS Picks and Strategy: Nico Collins Headlines Building Blocks for MNF

It’s been a great start to the postseason, with Saturday gifting us two outstanding playoff games and Sunday providing us with more good football, despite a George Kittle injury.

While Monday night’s contest between the Texans and Steelers might be one of the least appealing of the weekend, it still has the potential to be a really good game. The Texans are listed as three-point road favorites, while the total sits at 38.5 points.

Houston enters the postseason on a nine-game winning streak. They’ve had one of the best defenses in football all year, while their offense has been a bit more inconsistent. If C.J. Stroud and company can perform a bit better in the postseason, this team has the potential to make a deep playoff run.

Unfortunately, the Steelers outlook isn’t quite as rosy. They needed to win their final game just to qualify for the postseason, and if not for a missed 44-yard field goal from the Ravens kicker, they’d be watching the playoffs from their couch like the rest of us. That said, sleep on a Mike Tomlin-led team at your own risk. He has a knack for winning games that he shouldn’t, and he’s not above looking for help from above to make that happen.

Before we get into the game itself, a few general notes on single-game DFS strategy.

DraftKings DFS Strategy for Texans vs. Steelers MNF

Tell a Story With Your Lineups

On multi-game slates, you don’t really have to worry about correlation. There are a bunch of different players to choose from, so finding the “best plays” is ultimately all that matters.

The single-game format is a bit different. You’re choosing from a much smaller group of players, so you’re going to need to be nearly perfect if you want to take home a big prize in a large-field GPP.

The easiest way to do that is to make sure that your lineups tell a consistent story. Do you think that the Steelers are going to pull off the upset? If that happens, what does that look like for fantasy purposes? It likely means subpar days from the top Texans options, while maybe the Steelers defense scores a touchdown.

Conversely, maybe you think the Texans turn this game into a blowout. If you think that’s the case, what do you think the box score looks like? Maybe more work for the team’s running backs, while the Steelers pass catchers can rack up some production in garbage time.

The best part is that you don’t have to tell the same story with every lineup. You can build certain lineups around certain outcomes and the exact opposite with others. Regardless, you’re going to want to make sure that each specific lineup has a path to being the optimal one.

Hunt Big Scores at Captain/MVP

In the single-game format, one player on DraftKings and FanDuel will be designated as your Captain/MVP. That player earns 1.5x fantasy points in exchange for 1.5x salary. That means the most expensive players on the slate see a big jump in price, while some of the cheaper options see a more reasonable increase. On this slate, Nico Collins jumps from $10,600 in the Flex to $15,900 in the Captain spot, while someone like Pat Freiermuth jumps from just $5,000 to $7,500.

It can be tempting to look for a value player in that premium lineup spot. It makes it easier to jam more studs into your lineup, and there are occasions where that ends up being the preferred lineup construction.

However, more often than not, you need your Captain/MVP to put up a boatload of points. The easiest way to do that is by targeting the most expensive players. They’re the most expensive for a reason, and it’s because they have the best fantasy projections. Loading the top-scoring player into the premium spot in your lineup is the easiest way to get to the top of the leaderboard, and you can focus on making up the difference in salary with the rest of your lineup.

Don’t be Afraid to Get Weird

This is the No. 1 tip for those who are just dipping their toes into single-game DFS. In certain contests, hundreds of thousands of people will be choosing from the same player pool. That’s not a lot of different possible lineup constructions over such a large sample size. If you go with all the most popular plays in your lineup, even if you do put together the top score, you’re going to be splitting the top prize with a bunch of other people.

Instead, embrace the variance that is a single NFL game. Weird things happen all the time. Third-string tight ends score touchdowns. Players get injured. The plays that might look the best “on paper” tend to fall short more than you think.

With that in mind, there are plenty of different ways to differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field. You can leave a bunch of salary on the table. You can roster someone that no one else is really thinking about (Cade Stover is my favorite for this specific contest). You can fade players that are going to be owned by a large portion of the field.

Doing weird stuff like that might slightly decrease your odds of winning, but when you do, you’re far more likely to have a unique lineup. That makes this the preferred strategy from an expected value standpoint.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s dive into some of the ways that I’m planning to approach this matchup.

Texans vs. Steelers DFS Building Blocks

Nico Collins ($10,600; DraftKings)

The Texans stand out as the better option of the two squads on Monday night. They’re favored, giving them a slightly higher implied team total, and the matchup is significantly friendlier. While the Texans are among the stingiest defenses in football for fantasy purposes, the Steelers can be had. They were a bottom-seven unit in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends this season.

Collins is the Texans’ top skill-position player. He leads the slate in terms of median projection, and he has the top Xfinity “best” score as well. That’s really what we care most about on this slate: when a player hits his ceiling, how many points can he reasonably score?

Collins had a very healthy 25% target share and 37% air yards share for the season. He also saw 33% of the team’s end zone targets. Collins’ production did slide a bit down the stretch, but he’s proven capable of putting together big performances over the past two seasons. He had at least 20.6 PPR points in five of his 15 games this season, giving him arguably the top ceiling on the slate. He’ll likely be the most popular choice at the premium spot on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but it’s pretty easy to see why.

C.J. Stroud ($10,200; DraftKings)

If you’re going to go with Collins, pairing him with his quarterback is a logical next step. The two players are positively correlated, so when one does well, it naturally helps the other. If Collins can go for 100+ yards and a touchdown, Stroud will almost certainly be on the other end.

Stroud hasn’t quite been as good as he was as a rookie, but he’s taken advantage of favorable matchups for most of the year. He had 18.42 DraftKings points vs. the Titans, 28.76 against the Ravens, 25.72 vs. the 49ers and 23.4 vs. the Cardinals. All four are in the bottom half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, and the Steelers have been worse than each of them (19.9 fantasy points per game to the position).

Stroud also has a solid playoff track record, piling up wins in each of his first two professional seasons. He’s in a great spot to make it three in a row.

Kenneth Gainwell ($8,800; DraftKings)

For the Steelers, Gainwell stands out as their most appealing option. He’s operated as part of a committee backfield in Pittsburgh for most of the year, but Gainwell is dominating the high-value touches. Specifically, his work as a pass catcher has been fantastic. He has the fifth-best target share at running back this season, trailing only Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s hard to beat that kind of company.

Gainwell has racked up at least seven targets in four of his past five games, and he had eight catches in a pseudo-playoff game last week vs. the Ravens. That game was with DK Metcalf on the sidelines, but Gainwell should be a focal point of the team’s passing attack vs. an elite defense.

He also has some touchdown upside. He’s had similar utilization to starting running back Jaylen Warren in short-yardage situations, and Gainwell punched in a touchdown last week around the goal line in a Wildcat package.

Ultimately, Gainwell has the top projection and Xfinity "best" score for the Steelers on this slate. He’s just their fourth-priciest option on DraftKings, which is a nice combination.

DFS Value Plays For Texans vs Steelers on Monday Night Football

Dalton Schultz ($6,400; DraftKings)

Let’s continue to lean on the Texans passing attack. If we’re using Stroud, then pairing him with multiple pass catchers is a viable strategy. In that scenario, we’re trying to get as large a slice of the Texans passing pie as possible.

Schultz is their No. 2 option in the passing attack. He has a 19% target share for the year, and he finished with double-digit PPR points in four of his final six regular-season outings.

Schultz’s “best” score tops Jayden Higgins’ in our projections, despite Higgins checking in at a higher price tag. His median projection is also in line with Woody Marks. He’s arguably the best pure value on the Texans, especially with the Steelers allowing the third-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends.

Christian Kirk ($2,600; DraftKings)

Kirk is how I’m choosing to round out my Texans stacks. He’s extremely affordable, and he remains an important part of the team’s passing attack. He had a 66% route participation over the team’s final three games, and he posted a 13% target share in those contests. His fantasy production didn’t reflect how often he was on the field, so he stands out as an excellent buy-low candidate.

Pat Freiermuth ($5,000; DraftKings)

The Steelers have leaned on their running backs and tight ends as heavily as any team in football this season. Part of that stems from Aaron Rodgers’ unwillingness to push the ball downfield. He got rid of the ball quicker than any QB in football during the regular season, and no QB averaged fewer air yards per attempt.

The Steelers have had a trio of options at tight end for most of the year, but Darnell Washington going down with an injury changed things for Freiermuth. He had a 76% route participation over his final two games, and he saw five targets in both contests.

Freiermuth failed to score in either of those games, but he did have a 33% end zone share in those outings. The Texans also haven’t been quite as dominant against tight ends as they have vs. other positions, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game.

Contrarian DFS Targets For Texans vs. Steelers

Calvin Austin ($3,400; DraftKings)

Even if you’re building around the Texans, you’re still going to want a balance of players in your lineups. It’s rare for a winning six-man DFS lineup to feature more than four players from any one team unless the game turns into a blowout. While that’s possible, it doesn’t seem too likely given the three-point spread.

Austin could be a bit undervalued for the Steelers. He returned to the lineup in Week 18, and he stepped right back into a sizable role. His route participation was merely 66%, but he was targeted on 21% of his routes. He gobbled up 36% of the team’s air yards and an end zone target, and he ultimately finished with 14.5 DraftKings points.

Austin could lose some opportunities with Metcalf back in the fold, but he still figures to be one of their top pass-catchers.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,200; DraftKings)

Valdes-Scantling feels a bit riskier. He led the team’s receiving corps with a 19% target share in the two games without Metcalf, and he posted a 90% route participation in those outings. However, he could definitely move back into a reserve role with Metcalf back in the fold.

Still, MVS has spent the vast majority of his career playing with Rodgers, and the two players have plenty of chemistry. Rodgers loves to look for “his guys” on the field, and Valdes-Scantling is definitely one of them.

Steelers Defense ($3,600; DraftKings)

It might feel counterintuitive to roster the Steelers defense along with a bunch of different pass catchers for the Texans. On a normal slate, you’d be completely justified in thinking that. However, in the single-game format, using a defense against your own quarterback is a reasonable option.

Even if the Texans offense has a productive day, there’s no reason the Steelers can’t generate some sacks, force a turnover or two or score a touchdown. With the Mike Tomlin voodoo magic, I’m always ready for that scenario. Building some lineups with Stroud, Collins and the Steelers D could be a bit contrarian, but it falls squarely into the “don’t be afraid to get weird” category I mentioned earlier.