Week 10 NFL DFS Picks For Underdog Battle Royale: Stack the Commanders and a Sleeper QB
Pete Overzet breaks down how he's approaching the Week 10 NFL DFS slate on Underdog in Battle Royale contests.
It took 174.82 points to ship last week's Battle Royale contest on Underdog, thanks to massive scores from Brock Bowers (37.3), Drake London (34.3), Christian McCaffrey (31.8) and Tee Higgins (29.6).
As always, we are back to help identify the angles and macro strategy to summit the BR mountain in Week 10 like JODONNELL2 did last week.
Here are the topics for today:
- Not getting overconfident in a projection
- My favorite stack
- How to play the Bears backfield
- The next Jaxson Dart?
Reminder: I'm live at noon ET every Thursday discussing Underdog strategy and drafting teams on the Fantasy Life Youtube channel. Join me in the chat or watch on playback.
Trust The Projection … But Not Too Much
I thought Nico Collins was an awesome play in Week 9. He was fully healthy coming off a one-game absence due to a concussion and had a nice matchup on tap with Patrick Surtain out for the Broncos. Because he was regularly available in Round 5 and Round 6 as the WR10, I loaded up on him in the BR and made him my most drafted WR:
He did fine–11 targets, 7 receptions, 75 yards–but he came nowhere close to matching London's 3 TD explosion. Unfortunately, I had a fraction of London teams compared to Nico:
This 1v1 particularly stings because I had Collins on two of my three best teams, one of which scored 150.72 points and another that scored 144.50.
Similar to the masochistic math we did last week, those extra 23.2 points from London would have come in handy on either of those teams.
150.72 + 23.2 = 174.02 (tied for 2nd place; $15,000)
144.5 + 23.2 = 167.7 (7th place; $4,000)
Once again, I promise you the reason for this exercise isn't another "woe is me; if I just go the other way in that 1v1, I win all the money." Instead, I think it illustrates the importance of not getting overconfident in a single projection …
Takeaways:
- Even though Nico projected for a little over a point more than London, there is no world where Nico outscores London 5x as frequently, which is exactly what my exposure gap between the two would indicate.
- I can't control getting the combos right (getting London on my teams with CMC and Bowers, etc.), but I can control the frequency with which I'm selecting late-round WRs with very similar projections.
- Going forward, I want to be way more cognizant of the players who are pacing to be my most drafted players. If they are in a tier of their own and truly separate from a projection standpoint, I'm content to blast off, but if the projections are close, like in the case of London and Nico (and if we are being fair, Brian Thomas, too), then I need to do a better job of balancing those exposures.
- In hindsight, something like 20% Nico and 10% London would have been much more reasonable.
My Favorite Stack: A Couple Of Commanders
The bad news is that there will be no Jayden Daniels for the foreseeable future. The good news is that Marcus Mariota becomes a very intriguing DFS play, along with his pass catchers. They are all essentially free this week.
The main selling point for Mariota is 1) what he can do on the ground (16-88-1 on the year) and 2) the game environment (8.5-point dogs in a game with a 49.5-point total).
The Lions are also banged up in the secondary and could be without two starters (CB Terrion Arnold and FS Kerby Joseph).
You can always utilize a rushing QB like Mariota solo/naked, but if I'm trying to win a tournament, I like the idea of stacking him with a teammate who is also not getting drafted frequently.
Deebo Samuel is coming off three straight quiet games where his aDot shrank, but he's still fully capable of popping off for 20+ points, which he's done three other times this season. His two best games of the season in Weeks 4 and 5 came without Terry McLaurin in the lineup, and Terry is not expected to play again this week.
Zach Ertz is also in play. He has a solid 18% target share on the season and a respectable UR score of 69.
How To Play The Bears RBs …
There will be a temptation this week to ride the Kyle Monangai wave after his 21.3 point performance in Week 9 vs. the Bengals, but I wouldn't be clicking him right now. He's currently the RB11 and going one spot ahead of his teammate D'Andre Swift:
Swift, however, was back at practice yesterday and is on track to play this week vs. the Giants. There are certainly scenarios where Monangai delivers a solid fantasy score because he earned more opportunities (Freedman lays out that case here), but we don't want to be in the habit of selecting RBs in 50-50 timeshares in the Battle Royale.
The best way to play the Bears backfield is to select Swift with the Q-tag over Monangai, especially if you have one of the final few picks and neither back has been selected. In this scenario, you either get the lead back on the Bears vs. a Giants team that gives up the second-most rushing yards in the league, or if he doesn't end up playing, you can swap to Monangai.
Other RBs I would click over Monangai: Travis Etienne Jr., Rachaad White, TreVeyon Henderson
The Next Jaxson Dart? A Sleeper QB …
Sadly, the days of Jaxson Dart as a sleeper in the Battle Royales are long gone. He has an ADP of 25.7 this week, making him the QB4. It means he'll be selected in nearly 100% of all drafts.
That doesn't make him a bad play—he gets the same Bears defense that just allowed Joe Flacco to put up 42 points—but it does mean we need to dig deeper for signal callers who could spike at much lower ownership.
With an ADP of 35.8, I think J.J. McCarthy fits the bill at QB10.
McCarthy was fine against the Lions. He made some nice throws and finished with 19.92 points. But the real reason to get excited about him is the rushing upside.
He had 9 rushing attempts in Week 9 and is emerging as a top scrambler at the QB position. When you couple the rushing upside with elite weaponry and a great matchup (the Ravens are 24th in EPA allowed per dropback), McCarthy stands out as a guy to scroll down to and "play it before you see it."
The floor here is still extremely low—like mid-game-benching low—but there's enough upside to take stabs here in big tournaments.
For more Battle Royale strategy, check out the full slate breakdown I do with the Badge Bros on Fridays at 3 PM ET.
Join Our Newsletter
Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.
By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
