Week 11 NFL DFS Picks For Underdog Battle Royale: Woody Marks and More Sleeper RBs To Click
DFS

Week 11 NFL DFS Picks For Underdog Battle Royale: Woody Marks and More Sleeper RBs To Click

Peter Overzet breaks down how to attack the Week 11 NFL DFS slate in Underdog Battle Royale contests.

Yes, we are without our king, Jonathan Taylor, on this slate (as well as some of the other highest scorers from Week 10—De'Von Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs, TreVeyon Henderson), but there is a lot to like about this Week 11 DFS slate.

We have five games with totals over 48, some tight spreads, and arguably the deepest RB pool since the bye weeks hit. 

Here are the topics for today:

  • How to attack the game of the week
  • Back to the flow chart: bully the Bengals
  • 3 sleeper RBs

Reminder: I'm live at noon ET every Thursday discussing Underdog strategy and drafting teams on the Fantasy Life YouTube channel. Join me in the chat or watch on replay.

Good luck this week, and remember, for more Battle Royale strategy, check out my show with the Badge Bros—Off & On The Clock—on Friday at 3 PM ET.

How To Attack The Game Of The Week

With a high total (48.5 points) and a tight spread (Rams are -3), this divisional tilt between arguably the two best teams in the NFC—Seattle and Los Angeles—is shaping up to be the game of the week.

But it's actually a pretty tricky game to attack in the Battle Royale.

Here's how it will mostly get played by the field …

That's … basically it.

The reason for this, of course, is that none of the other players in this game projects well enough to be selected regularly in a contest where only 36 players are selected:

Via the Fantasy Life projections:

This leaves us with essentially two main options: 1) play it in the obvious ways (Stafford skinny stacks) or sacrifice a lot of projection for more unique stacks (i.e., Darnold to Shaheed). But I think my preferred way to handle this spot isn't to necessarily draft the thin plays, but to try to land on more unique constructions.

My favorite ways to attack this game:

  • Pair JSN with Darnold. Because Darnold is the QB11 by ADP, he will mostly go undrafted. Still, we know he has a ceiling to go for 28+ points, which he did vs. WAS and TB. This is the simplest and obvious way to get unique.
  • Include Kyren Williams in a stack. Adding Kyren to a Stafford/Puka or Darnold/JSN stack won't be nearly as popular as the straight skinny stacks.
  • Play JSN opposite Stafford. We know Stafford can spread the ball around, whereas the Seattle passing offense is likely to be heavily condensed around JSN. You can play scenarios where JSN goes for 25, Stafford goes for 28, and neither Puka nor Adams clears 20.
  • Focus on mini correlations. Because so many of the Puka and Adams teams will be paired with Stafford, I like the idea of grabbing three pieces from this game without the QB. My favorite would be something like JSN/Adams/Kyren, where you take a QB like Josh Allen in Round 2 because you know he can outscore Stafford.

The Flow Chart Play: Bully The Bengals

Jaylen Warren (ADP: 16.3) and DK Metcalf (ADP: 29.3) won't be sneaky this week, but everyone is in play when it comes to facing the Cincinnati Bengals.

Aaron Rodgers is currently the QB10 in ADP (35.4) despite this dream home matchup (they are implied for 27.5 points) vs. a Bengals team he shredded for 249 passing yards, four TDs and 24.6 fantasy points in Week 7.

Since then, nothing has changed with the Bengals defense …

It's trickier to decipher which TE to choose between Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth, but both of them scored vs. the Bengals in Week 7 and Freiermuth exploded for 25.6 points (5-111-2). 

Digging deeper into their Utilization, I'd give a slight nod to Freiermuth due to a bigger aDOT and more endzone targets, but it truly is close.

Regardless of whether or not you want to take a stab on the TEs, don't hesitate to click on Rodgers this week.

Three Sleeper RBs To Scroll Down For

TreVeyon Henderson went off for 27.5 points in Week 10 at only 34% ownership … and it didn't even matter.

That's what happens when two top-10 RBs go for 36.7 (Jahmyr Gibbs) and 37.50 (De'Von Achane) points.

Despite that being frustrating, it was somewhat predictable even before the games kicked off. It was a top-heavy slate with very few sleeper RB options available. Week 11, thankfully, sets up much differently.

I see a handful of RBs with ADPs after 34 who all have the ability and/or role to drop 20+ points at low ownership. My three favorites:

Woody Marks (34.1) - Marks dominated touches for the Texans in Week 10 (78% snap share), similar to what he did in Week 4. But things feel different this time. Yes, the Texans were playing in a trailing script, but he also handled all of the goalline carries vs. the Jags. I'll repeat that a different way—they didn't give Nick Chubb a single carry inside the 10-yard line. The Titans give up the second-most points to opposing RBs in half-PPR (25.2).

Aaron Jones (35.1) - Dwain covered the Jones takeover in this week's Utilization Report. The TL;DR? Jones is coming off a game with an 84 Utilization Score and 15.9 fantasy points where he dominated rushing attempts (69%) and the passing work (63% route participation, 15% target share). It's rare to find a player with Jones' role plus ceiling at this cost. It's also a nice matchup at home vs. the Bears, who are dealing with injuries to EDGEs Dayo Odeyingbo (Achilles, IR) and Dominique Robinson (ankle), DT Shemar Turner (knee, IR), and LB T.J. Edwards (hand, hamstring).

RJ Harvey (35.5) - Harvey feels like the Henderson play from last week: uber-talented rookie back who is finally stepping into a bigger role but in a tough-ish matchup. With no J.K. Dobbins for the foreseeable future, Sean Payton—like Vrabel—will have no choice but to heavily feature his rookie RB. Harvey has already tallied games with 19.8, 24.1 and 16.6 points on limited touches, so the ceiling is truly high here (even in a tricky matchup vs. the Chiefs stingy run D).

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. De'Von Achane
    De'VonAchaneQ
    RBMIAMIA
    PPG
    16.68
  2. Jahmyr Gibbs
    JahmyrGibbs
    RBDETDET
    PPG
    12.49
  3. TreVeyon Henderson
    TreVeyonHenderson
    RBNENE
    PPG
    8.93
    Proj
    7.35
  4. Matthew Stafford
    MatthewStafford
    QBLARLAR
    PPG
    13.10
    Proj
    16.56