Week 12 NFL DFS Strategy: 12 Keys To Winning $40K In Underdog Battle Royale
DFS

Week 12 NFL DFS Strategy: 12 Keys To Winning $40K In Underdog Battle Royale

Peter Overzet breaks down 12 tips on winning $40,000 on the Week 12 NFL DFS slate.

We've reached the point of the season where I need to mix things up in order to keep things fresh. 

Instead of hitting on our usual 3-4 topics in depth, I'm expanding this piece to 12 different strategy nuggets to help you attack the Week 12 slate on Underdog and take down the $40,000 top prize in the Battle Royale.

Below you'll find some macro strategy tips, teams to target, sneaky sleepers, and tips for navigating injury situations.

If you'd like more Underdog strategy, specifically in video form, check the Week 12 DFS jam on the Fantasy Life YouTube channel and my show with the Badge Bros–Off & On The Clock.

Ok, let's dig in …

1. Don't Go Chasing Waterfalls

In Week 11, we saw multiple low-owned gems hit for monster scores:

Both the Wilson and Tucker scores are fairly unprecedented—it's incredibly rare to get monster scores from pieces who are drafted by less than 1% of the field. I wouldn't make a habit of chasing these plays in a draft where only 24 RB/WRs are selected. Instead, our goal is to find the TMacs of the week—similarly low-owned gems who project well and are trending up in their Utilization.

2. It's Going To Be A High-Scoring Slate

We have five totals this week over 47: Jags/Cardinals (47.5), Cowboys/Eagles (47.5), Patriots/Bengals (49.5), Lions/Giants (49.5) and Colts/Chiefs (50). Of those games, three are projected to be close games: (Chiefs -3.5), Jags (-2.5), Eagles (-3.5). Two other teams project to score more than 25 points in blowouts: Seahawks (27) and Ravens (29). 

3. Matchups To Target On The Week 12 DFS Slate

Both the Patriots (+3.5) and the Bengals (+5.5) give up top-five fantasy boosts to opposing QBs. Also, we might seriously get Joe Burrow back for this one. Shootout? 

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The Cowboys, Bengals, and the Giants give up top-five boosts to both opposing QBs and opposing RBs. Green light for all Eagles, Patriots, and Lions. The Jags give up the second-most points to opposing TEs, as if you needed another reason to love Trey McBride this week.

4. The Cardinals Stay Hot In Arizona

It feels like chasing, but I think you can go right back to the Cardinals this week ... and not just McBride. Jacoby Brissett (ADP 35; QB8) hasn't scored less than 20 points yet this season and is our QB7 in projections. Michael Wilson (WR15 in our projections) is also a solid sixth-round click with Marvin Harrison out again this week. The Jags might be without starting CBs Greg Newsome (ankle) and Jourdan Lewis (neck).

5. One Lion In Every Draft?

It honestly might be a "one Lion in every draft" kind of week. Obviously, that isn't feasible if you are doing hundreds of drafts, but it should be in the back of your head whenever you are on the clock. The Lions have a 30.5 team total. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB2; 1.9), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR2; 5.6), Jameson Williams (WR10; 23.1) and Jared Goff (QB5; 31.2) are all popular, but don't forget about David Montgomery (RB17) and honestly, TE Brock Wright (TE17). Freedman alerted me to the fact that he had seven targets last week. 

6. A Sneaky Dart Throw

One fun way to play that game might be something like two Lions + Jaxson Dart (QB7; ADP 34.9). He's expected back this week after the concussion and always has access to a high ceiling thanks to his rushing. We actually have him and Goff nearly identical in base projection (18.1 & 18.2), but Dart's ceiling projection is over 3 points higher (25.3 vs. 22.1). 

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Something like ARSB + Montgomery & Dart sounds pretty fun and relatively sneaky to me.

7. Don't Fall For The Vrabel Trap

I mentioned this in the Fantasy Life newsletter, but it's worth reiterating again here—TreVeyon Henderson's ADP (7.8) is out of control right now. He is overvalued as RB4 with Rhamondre Stevenson set to return (he's RB7 in our projections, and even that feels frothy to me knowing Mike Vrabel's m.o.). I can't imagine taking him over someone like Derrick Henry (RB6, ADP: 9.4).

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8. What Can Brown Do For You?

On the flip side, there is also a massively undervalued RB in that game—Chase Brown. Despite elite Utilization—83% of the snaps, 86% of the rushing attempts, and a 19% target share in the two games without Samaje Perine–and fantasy performances (18.7 points per game), Brown is currently the RB9 (ADP: 29.8) on Underdog. He's the RB4 in our projections. I expect this gap to close as drafters re-adjust to rankings/projections this week, but he likely won't rise fast enough or far enough. He's a major target. To put a bow on the Henderson/Brown stuff, I'd like to be overweight Brown (20%+ exposure) and underweight Henderson (6-8%). 

9. How To Handle The Packers Backfield

With Josh Jacobs (ADP: 34.8) technically not ruled out yet, drafters are presented with a tricky dilemma on how to handle the Packers RBs this week. There's really only one way to play it correctly, in my opinion. Don't take Emanuel Wilson (ADP 35.5) until we get confirmation Jacobs is out. Wilson would be an extremely bad pick if Jacobs is active. Instead, any time you want to select Wilson, just take Jacobs. If Jacobs doesn't play, you can swap to Wilson (make sure he's also still available when you click Jacobs). If you are unfamiliar with these swap dynamics, I have an entirely free course on how to execute them.

10. Fall Showers Bring Zay Flowers?

One of these weeks, Zay Flowers is going to explode. There have been plenty of excuses for Flowers this year—Lamar Jackson in and out of the lineup, the team playing slow, etc.—but he's simply too talented not to pop off eventually. Assuming the Big Dog doesn't hog all of the 29 expected points, this could be the Zay week. Likely no Rashod Bateman, and the Jets have a walking dead secondary after trading away all of their CBs. 

11. Sleeper Tight Ends

Hunter Henry is currently the TE7 on Underdog, but is Matthew Freedman's TE5 on the slate. Everyone knows the Bengals are atrocious against TEs, but the real sneaky nugget here is that when Austin Hooper missed in Week 11, Henry had a season-high 97% snap rate. How about one more undervalued TE while we are here? Kyle Pitts. He's currently TE5 in our projections and TE10 in Underdog ADP (35.5). No Drake London this week. 

12. What We Can Learn From The Sharps

This is the final week of the Dawg Bowl (12-person draft) live final qualifiers on Underdog. The sharpest players on the site battle it out in these streets in hopes of securing one of the three available seats each week to compete for a $1M prize pool in Week 14 in Kansas City. Because these drafters are 1) sharp and 2) draft early, we can glean some insight from the differences in ADP for the players in the 12-person contests vs. the six-mans. Some things happen structurally (RBs go at a much higher premium in the 12-person), but others are more notable:

  • Both Justin Jefferson (4.7 spots) and A.J. Brown (5.1) are going much higher in the 12-person drafts. Translation: sharp drafters are willing to bet on talent/ceiling over recent poor performances. 
  • Despite being an RB, TreVeyon Henderson is going later in the 12-person drafts (11.1 vs. 7.9). Translation: Be wary of Rhamondre Stevenson's return.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. is the biggest riser across the two ADP sets (27.2 > 15.6). Translation: if Bhayshul Tuten doesn't play, Etienne Jr. is a smash.

Good luck this week, everyone.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Michael Wilson
    MichaelWilson
    WRARIARI
    PPG
    7.03
  2. TreVeyon Henderson
    TreVeyonHenderson
    RBNENE
    PPG
    8.93
    Proj
    7.35
  3. Rhamondre Stevenson
    RhamondreStevenson
    RBNENE
    PPG
    9.43
    Proj
    12.37
  4. Tetairoa McMillan
    TetairoaMcMillan
    WRCARCAR
    PPG
    8.21