Week 8 NFL DFS Picks For Underdog Battle Royale: Stack Draye Maye and Stefon Diggs
DFS

Week 8 NFL DFS Picks For Underdog Battle Royale: Stack Draye Maye and Stefon Diggs

Peter Overzet breaks down how to approach your Underdog Battle Royale NFL DFS contests in Week 8.

It already feels like we are running out of weeks to take down the first-place prize in the large-field Battle Royale contest on Underdog, but I’m feeling dialed in for this Week 8 NFL DFS slate.

Here's the agenda for this week’s piece:

  • Small-field strategy tweaks
  • My favorite stack in Week 8
  • The best RB sleepers
  • A sneaky vomit stack

If you want to watch me draft some Battle Royale teams on Underdog and talk through more strategy, be sure to check out the Week 8 DFS jam on the Fantasy Life YouTube channel.

Small-field Strategy: My Third-Place Finish for $1,500

Most of the strategy and picks in this column focus on the large-field Battle Royale contest with tens of thousands of entries, but Underdog offers a wide variety of contests with different sizes and price points.

One of my favorites is The Fullback Dive—a $25, five-entry max contest with only 1,128 entries. In Week 7, one of my entries in the Dive finished in third place for $1,500:

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This lineup is worth discussing because it represents how we should be altering our strategies based on the contest size.

On this team, I took three players from the same team—Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Daniel Jones—and four players from the same game (Keenan Allen was the bring-back). This team wouldn't have fared well in the big BR (it would have finished in 255th place for $50) because Jones and Warren didn't come close to matching the high-end scores at QB and TE, but it was more than viable in a contest with a fraction of the entries.

This team also originally had Deebo Samuel, but when he was ruled out, I was able to swap to Chris Olave.

2 Takeaways:

  • In the large BR, we need perfection, but that's not the case in the smaller tournaments. Lean into correlation in those smaller contests so you have to get fewer things right to win (i.e., if this one game goes off, the team will be in great shape).
  • Don't be scared of Q-tags. I thought the ceiling of Deebo was well worth the risk at pick 24. Because only 12-15 WRs are selected in most six-person contests, the swap options are very attractive. Last week, I knew I'd be able to pivot my Deebo teams to Olave, Allen, Michael Pittman Jr., or Romeo Doubs—all of whom projected decently and regularly didn't get drafted.

My favorite Stack: Drake Maye & Stefon Diggs

One of the trickiest dynamics in Underdog tournaments is knowing when to stack a QB and knowing when to play them "naked" (aka solo). The typical rule of thumb is that pocket passers (think Patrick Mahomes) should be stacked, while rushing QBs (think Josh Allen) can be utilized solo. 

And while I do think that's a useful rule of thumb, I think two other factors are even more important in dictating how to handle the stacking conundrum:

1) The price of the QB (aka, are they getting selected in the majority of drafts)

2) The quality of their pass catchers (is the offense spread out, or is a player consolidating volume?)

In Week 8, we get a perfect example of this dynamic when looking at the Denver Broncos (Bo Nix) and the New England Patriots (Drake Maye). Both of these guys have significant rushing upside and fairly spread out pass-catching options, but they are going at very different prices in Week 8.

The price bump on the Broncos is understandable. Nix (QB4 by ADP) is coming off a 40-point game (I still can't believe that's real), and the Cowboys still give up the biggest fantasy boost to opposing QBs. Courtland Sutton as the WR5, however, is more suspect. He's only scored over 20 points once this season. Individually, these two will be selected in 100% of drafts, and they will be paired together at an extremely high rate. I will not be fading Nix, but I will be underweight the stack knowing how popular it will be. In the scenarios where Nix smashes his ADP, he's likely rushing a ton (like he did in Week 7) and not supporting a 20+ point performance from a WR (Sutton had 13.7 points despite a 40-ball from Nix).

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On the flip side, I think this is the perfect week to stack up Maye (QB8) with Stefon Diggs (WR15). For weeks, Diggs was going closer to where Sutton is going this week and the field was pairing him with Maye at a high clip. But now that the stack hasn't hit in a big way (and due to a perceived tougher matchup), the field is completely ignoring these two:

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I haven't been a Diggs guy this year, but the price and the usage are finally lining up for me to pile in. Here's what Dwain said about him in this week's Utilization Report:

"Up nine points over the last four games and has a Utilization Score of 76 over that span. Diggs is hovering between a 64% and 82% route participation rate over that span. We need that number to improve but his 32% target share leads the team. Diggs' historical Utilization Score comps have averaged 15 points per game—right in line with his 15.1 over that span. Diggs offers extensive upside should he eventually play a full-time role with budding superstar Drake Maye."

RB Is Deeeeep This Week: My Favorites

This is the rare week where I think RB is deep. Maybe these prices change as people catch up to rankings and projections, but for now, they all represent values.

Here are a few I like who are going after RB10 and will be drafted less than 50% of the time:

  • Breece Hall (RB11) - I know, I know. Hall burned me last week, too. But this is a spot we need to forgive and forget. He's the clear lead back, the team just made a QB shift, and they get to face the worst run defense in the league.
  • D'Andre Swift (RB12) - This Swift ADP is wild. He's coming off two weeks as the RB6 and RB5, is generating explosive plays, and gets a Ravens defense that gives up the second-most points (half-PPR) to opposing RBs. 
  • Rachaad White (RB17) - People are off White because he flopped on primetime, but he still has an elite workload in this backfield. In Week 7, he set a season-high in snaps (91%) and routes (76%). Feel free to take Bucky Irving and then swap to White, but I think it's extremely unlikely Bucky returns one week before their bye. He's RB12 in our early ranks.
  • Alvin Kamara (RB18) - Like White, Kamara isn't sexy, but his utilization is solid (76 on the season). With Kendre Miller out for the year, he's likely to see even more targets going forward. You'll need a TD from him to smash, but the baseline work is enough to warrant stabs at these prizes.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (RB19) - If you aren't going to indulge in the Maye/Diggs stack, how about scrolling for Stevenson—the clear RB1 for the Patriots. TreVeyon Henderson is sadly not even close to being a thing, and Antonio Gibson is done for the year. Rhamondre has not been efficient, but chasing volume at RB is always a safe bet in these contests. The matchup isn't great either, but this offense is scoring points (ninth-ranked) and the TDs are concentrated between Maye and Rhamondre.

Fine, One More Sneaky Stack: Rattler and the Saints

I promise I’m not just pandering to Cooterdoodle—our resident Saints homer around here—I’m genuinely intrigued by this set-up for the Saints. (Editor's Note: I would be remiss if I didn't remind the masses that Cooterdoodle is now a Falcons fan, tried and true, the die-hard type.)

Let’s first start off with the prices on these guys. Chris Olave is the only one getting drafted with any regularity. Everyone else is free:

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In addition to sprinkling in some Kamara, pair up Olave with Rattler on a few rosters and consider some Rattler to Shaheed stacks (especially if you are dabbling in the 12-person contests). 

For more Battle Royale strategy, check out the full slate breakdown I do with the Badge Bros on Fridays at 3 PM ET.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Drake Maye
    DrakeMaye
    QBNENE
    PPG
    17.26
    Proj
    17.49
  2. Stefon Diggs
    StefonDiggs
    WRNENE
    PPG
    8.17
    Proj
    8.30
  3. Spencer Rattler
    SpencerRattlerQ
    QBNONO
    PPG
    11.81
  4. Chris Olave
    ChrisOlaveQ
    WRNONO
    PPG
    8.23