Week 9 NFL DFS Picks For Underdog Battle Royale: Stack The Bears Against Cincinnati

After this week, we will officially be halfway done with the NFL regular season (and that's being generous and including Week 18 as a legitimate week).

That means we are down to single-digit slates to bink a top prize on Underdog, so let's get straight to it with my favorite angles for the Week 9 NFL DFS slate, as well as a lesson learned from Week 8.

Here are the topics for today:

A costly swap decision
Bullying the Bengals
An offense to load up on
A running back sleeper

Reminder: I'm live at noon ET every Thursday discussing Underdog strategy and drafting teams on the Fantasy Life YouTube channel. Join me in the chat or watch on playback.

The Swap Dilemma (and a $40,000 Mistake!)

Week 8 ended up being a crazy week for WR swaps, with Nico Collins, A.J. Brown and Drake London all getting ruled out. London, specifically, flipped the slate on its head because he was not ruled out until Sunday morning—meaning he was drafted in nearly 100% of Battle Royale drafts throughout the week.

In these situations where you have lots of swaps to make, you ultimately need to make a tough decision:

Do I play exploitatively and swap to a low-owned player who not many people will have drafted?
Do I let the ADP gods take the wheel and simply take the "best" available player in every draft room who was not selected?

There are pros and cons for each, but ultimately, I purposefully try to shy away from the "default" swap.

For WRs, this was going to be mostly Michael Pittman Jr.. He closed at WR10 with an ADP of 31.8, meaning he wasn't going to be selected in most drafts and would be the top swap option for any of the AJB or London teams.

Because of this, I decided I would set my swap ranks with Darnell Mooney as my top swap option. Not only did he project for more points than Pittman once London was ruled out, but with an ADP of 35.6, he was going to be on less than 10% of rosters.

When factoring in both projection and ownership, it was a no-brainer decision.

Unfortunately, that well-reasoned game theory move cost me $40,000. Take a look at my best team from last week:

Now enhance …

Now we can do some math …

I scored 131.66 points.
Mooney scored 1.6 points and Pittman scored 19.5.
Had I not fiddled with my swap ranks and just defaulted to Pittman, I would have scored 17.9 more points for a total of 149.56.
First place in Battle Royale scored 146.06 points.

Haha, don't worry, I'm laughing. I'm not tilting. I'm laughing!!!

Takeaways:

Honestly? As painful as it is to realize you tinkered off the nuts, I would make this same play 100% of the time going forward. Any time you can get a better player at lower ownership than the field, it's a move you want to make. Of course, it still stings knowing I was so close to a bink in the flagship contest. Anyways, we are quite literally onto Cincinnati …

Pick on the Bengals: Load up on Bears?

In case you haven't been paying close attention, let me alert you to the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals have emerged as the premier defense to target in fantasy.

Looking at our DvP tool, they give up:

The second-biggest fantasy boost to opposing QBs (4.3)
The biggest fantasy boost to opposing RBs (11.2) and most rush yards (132.1)
The ninth-biggest fantasy boost to opposing WRs (2.9)
The biggest fantasy boost to opposing TEs (8.1)--the next closest is 3.8

And even better news is that the field is pretty spooked off their Week 9 opponent—the Chicago Bears—because Caleb Williams looks like a future CFL QB right now.

But I think the Bears are capable of being just competent enough to take advantage of this matchup in a similar fashion to the Jets, who just dropped 39 points on the Bengals.

Rome Odunze (ADP: 16.8; WR6) and D'Andre Swift (ADP: 24.8; RB9) are currently getting drafted in 100% of drafts, but there are some sneaky ways to play this game:

Caleb Williams (ADP: 34.9, QB9) - I know, I know. It's ugly for Caleb right now. He hasn't cleared 13 fantasy points in his last two games, but last time he faced an atrocious pass defense (Cowboys in Week 3), he dropped 29.12 points.
Colston Loveland (ADP: 35.9; TE11) - Freedman outlines the full case here, but it boils down to opportunity (potentially no Cole Kmet), role (utilization keeps improving) and matchup.
DJ Moore (ADP: 35.9; WR28) - DJM is the thinnest of these three—he's not separating from Olamide Zaccheaus from a usage perspective—but I think there's still room for optimism in this matchup. If Caleb had not missed him for an easy TD vs. Baltimore, he'd be much more on people's radars.

Don't Forget About The Giants

I know we are all in mourning over the loss of Cam Skattebo, but it would be a mistake to figure about the Giants even without their folk hero.

The Niners defense has been a disaster without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner and is allowing top-12 fantasy boosts to every position, including the sixth-biggest boost to opposing RBs.

I'll be taking stabs on Giants as both one-offs and as part of larger team stacks this week:

Jaxson Dart (ADP 35.3; QB10) - Since taking over in Week 5, Dart leads the league in designed rush attempts and is the QB5 over that span. It's not all running either—with an aDot of 9.9 yards (fourth among all QBs), he's also willing to take shots downfield. He's way too cheap in drafts this week.
Tyrone Tracy (ADP 35.3; RB14) - This play is as simple as volume + matchup.
Wan'Dale Robinson (ADP: 35.9; WR26) - It is beyond depressing to think about what Dart would be doing with Malik Nabers right now, but Robinson is still a fine option. He has a 28% target share over the past three weeks.
Theo Johnson (ADP: 35.9; TE12) - He's scored 4 TDs with Dart and has run 97% of the routes in back-to-back weeks with Daniel Bellinger injured.

A Buy Low RB: Jaylen Warren

Dwain sold me on Warren being a great buy-low candidate in this week's Utilization Report. Here are the cliffs notes:

Over the last four games, 76 Utilization Score.
65% snap share, 70% rush share, and 12% target share (12.6 fantasy points)
Low-end RB1 upside based on historical comps

With an ADP of 34.9 (RB12) this week, he's rarely getting drafted. It's not the greatest matchup on the ground, but this game has shootout potential (50.5 over/under) and the Colts give up the sixth-biggest target boost to opposing RBs.

I'll be sprinkling in some Warren, specifically on teams where I'm fairly "chalky" through five rounds and need an RB2 in the sixth.

For more Battle Royale strategy, check out the full slate breakdown I do with the Badge Bros on Fridays at 3 PM ET.

Week 9 NFL DFS Picks For Underdog Battle Royale: Stack The Bears Against Cincinnati

The Swap Dilemma (and a $40,000 Mistake!)

Go FantasyLife+

Pick on the Bengals: Load up on Bears?

Don't Forget About The Giants

A Buy Low RB: Jaylen Warren

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