10 Things To Know For Week 11: The Best Deep RB Handcuffs, J.J. McCarthy Analysis and More

We are over halfway through the fantasy season. Immeasurable amounts of blood, sweat, and tears have been shed on fantasy rosters already–and we're not done yet, people!

I don't care if you're 10-0 or 0-10 (okay, the latter would really suck, and I'm sorry if that's the case), but yeah: Our sole focus is coming away with a W in Week 11. Cool? Cool.

This brings us to today's goal: 10 mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 11 that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person. This week's topics:

1. What is going on with the Justin Jefferson-JJ McCarthy connection?
2. Who are THE premiere handcuffs to stash on your bench?
3. What WRs have the biggest splits in Weeks 1-5 compared to Weeks 6-10?
4. What man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 10?
5. Week 10 RB Report: Kimani Vidal played HOW MANY snaps last week?
6. Borderline erotic fantasy playoff schedules
7. The DST Corner: Ravens and Falcons headline best waiver options
8. Two key Week 11 ranking questions and answers
9. One cool fact from every game that I find interesting for one reason or another
10. Three Bold Calls for Week 11

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. What is going on with the Justin Jefferson-JJ McCarthy connection?

Jefferson was fully believed to be QB-proof entering 2025, but that simply hasn't been the case through four starts with the artist known as "nine":

• Week 1: 4 receptions-44 yards-1 TD (7 targets), PPR WR20
• Week 2: 3-81-0 (6), WR38
• Week 9: 6-47-1 (9), WR18
• Week 10: 4-37-0 (12), WR43

We know JJettas is still, in fact, quite good at football, as evidenced by the 26-year-old talent averaging 16.3 PPR points per game (WR10) in Weeks 3-8 with Carson Wentz under center. The man made a sweet one-handed TD catch two short weeks ago; the Vikings' 140-million-dollar man remains on the short list of the very best receivers in the game.

So … why is Jefferson actively functioning as McCarthy's least efficient target?

Vikings passer rating when targeted by McCarthy:

• Aaron Jones (115.3)
• TJ Hockenson (101.4)
• Jordan Mason (81.9)
• Adam Thielen (74.7)
• Jalen Nailor (73.4)
• Jordan Addison (52.9)
• Justin Jefferson (49.4)

It's not like Addison (97.8) and Jefferson (81.8) were completely crushing it with Wentz under center, but man: Those numbers are ROUGH. For reference, only Jerry Jeudy has a worse passer rating when targeted this season as a whole (46) among 70 WRs with 30-plus targets.

Is it as simple as concluding that McCarthy is in over his head/sucks at football? There's a pretty decent argument for this: His EPA and completion percentage over expected composite score is only superior to Dillon Gabriel among 37 qualified QBs.

But hey, those are just numbers on a screen. Do these nerds even know ball?

I watched all 34 targets between McCarthy and Jefferson to try to get a better idea of what has gone right and wrong this season:

• 23% Good job team! (8/34 targets): The duo has two TDs and a handful of explosives mainly courtesy of Jefferson getting open on some deep outs. McCarthy's accuracy is certainly erratic, but he has the arm talent to get the ball downfield to the sideline with velocity when given the benefit of a fairly clean pocket.
• 15% REALLY bad by McCarthy (5/34): This includes two rough INTs, two air mailed incompletions to a wide-open Jefferson, and another skipped pass to an open JJettas. It does seem like McCarthy's passes have a tendency to nose dive at times.
• 21% Not ideal from McCarthy (7/34): These include throws that weren't pin-point darts by any stretch, but also accounted for tight coverage and/or pressure on McCarthy.
• 9% Jefferson's fault (3/34): Two drops vs. the Bears on plays that should have netted first downs and a total of roughly 35 yards. Still, the most brutal miscue on Jefferson's end was last week's dropped 25-yard TD that was on the short list of McCarthy's best throws this season.
• 32% Neutral (11/34): Screens and routine short completions that any QB-WR duo should be able to connect on in their sleep.

All in all, I deemed 64% of McCarthy's targets to Jefferson were more than fine, 21% were not great throws but also weren't exactly layups, and 15% were rough misses. This is right in line with PFF's 64% catchable target rate for Jefferson – a mark which certainly isn't great, but is equal or superior to guys like DK Metcalf (64%), AJ Brown (62%), Rome Odunze (62%), Emeka Egbuka (62%), Nico Collins (62%), and Tee Higgins (59%).

I was surprised at how mostly fine things were during their first 3.5 games together, but then the duo connected on just 1 of 8 second half targets against the Ravens, with several of the incompletions being erratic misfires from McCarthy to an open-enough Jefferson. That said: I do imagine the narrative here would be quite different if Jefferson had held onto that aforementioned TD and/or been able to make a play on McCarthy's deep INT that seemed like it could have been a reasonable one-on-one opportunity if JJettas hadn't been tripped up.

Verdict: I think they figure it out, and Jefferson works as his usual WR1-worthy self the rest of the way, even if familiar overall WR1 heights aren't quite reached. I have too much confidence in Jefferson and Kevin O'Connell to believe that things won't get better here, particularly with McCarthy, to his credit, putting a couple handful's worth of truly solid throws on tape this season. It'd make sense if the 22-year-old de facto rookie improves with more reps–he's started four games people!–don't be surprised if Jefferson reminds everyone just how good he is against the Bears this Sunday.

2. Who are THE premiere handcuffs to stash on your bench?

Last week I went through handcuff tiers for the entire position, but that included guys like RJ Harvey and Chuba Hubbard. Awesome, tier 1 handcuffs … who are already on rosters in fantasy leagues of pretty much all shapes and sizes.

Accordingly, below I have *five* rather awesome handcuffs who were also rostered in 35% or fewer Yahoo and ESPN leagues as of Tuesday.

1. Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier (Yahoo: 33%, ESPN: 28%): The Berlin superstar possesses the sort of three-down skill-set to work as 75% Bijan Robinson should the Falcons' stud starter ever be forced out of action. Rookie UDFA RB3 Nathan Carter has nine career touches.
2. 49ers RB Brian Robinson (Yahoo: 24%, ESPN: 21%): No, B-Rob won't demand the level of receiving work that Christian McCaffrey regularly handles, but that doesn't mean Elijah Mitchell/Jordan Mason-esque borderline RB1 production wouldn't be on the table should disaster strike. Credit to Robinson for averaging a career-best 4.9 yards per carry behind the same o-line that CMC is averaging a career-low 3.5 yards per rush with.
3. Rams RB Blake Corum (Yahoo: 11%, ESPN: 8.5%): Nobody has been more willing to leave one RB on the field than Sean McVay over the years. While Kyren Williams is a borderline RB1 when healthy, Corum could feasibly rise even higher if Jarquez Hunter (0 touches this season) remains firmly on the bench.
4. Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten (Yahoo: 32%, ESPN: 20%): I'm a bit concerned with LeQuint Allen stealing pass-down work, but Tuten would still be the overwhelming favorite for lead back duties in overall touches in an offense that has helped enable Travis Etienne to upside RB2 heights this season.
5. Packers RB Emanuel Wilson (Yahoo: 8%, ESPN: 7%). Josh Jacobs' direct backup, and hey, Jacobs has already been dealing with a calf issue. Backup Chris Brooks has nine touches this season, and the last update on MarShawn Lloyd was that they sent him out west to get his body right.

One last good shout courtesy of my friend Justin Herzig who may or may not be the best fantasy football player in the world: Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell, who is just 1% rostered on both ESPN and Yahoo. There's definitely some risk here with current pass-down specialist Justice Hill being a candidate to see his role expanded with Derrick Henry out of the picture, but Mitchell tentatively profiles as the next-man up on early downs–a role which he could make the most out of if that ridiculous 6.7 career yards per carry mark persists.

3. What WRs have the biggest fantasy splits in Weeks 1-5 compared to Weeks 6-10?

Six WRs have managed to average an additional eight PPR points per game during Weeks 6-10 compared to Weeks 1-5:

• Falcons WR Drake London (13.7 in Weeks 1-5 vs. 25.8 in Weeks 6-10): Has racked up five top-five PPR finishes in 11 games with Michael Penix. Not too shabby!
• Bengals WRs Ja'Marr Chase (17.3 vs. 25.4) and Tee Higgins (8.2 vs. 19.3): Turns out Joe Flacco can still cook. Even better news for both: Joe Burrow (turf toe) could be back by Thanksgiving.
• Buccaneers WR Tez Johnson (3.1 vs. 14.2): The Tez-manian devil has actually out-scored Emeka Egbuka since locking down a full-time role in Week 6. He's worked as the WR21 during that stretch!
• Titans WR Chimere Dike (2.1 vs. 10.9): The return ace/starting slot receiver has emerged as Cam Ward's most trusted target with Calvin Ridley (hamstring) out of the picture.
• Chargers WR Ladd McConkey (9.7 vs. 18): Turns out those September worries weren't warranted! McConkey has posted top-10 numbers over the last five weeks, out-scoring the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb along the way.

Meanwhile four notable WRs have crashed out quite a bit in recent weeks and find themselves averaging at least eight fewer PPR points per game during the back half of the season so far:

• Bears WR Rome Odunze (19.9 in Weeks 1-5 vs. 9.9 in Weeks 6-10): Has returned two top-eight finishes since returning from the team's Week 5 bye … and three finishes outside the position's top-60 scorers. I'd expect production closer to the former booms for at least these next two weeks in winnable matchups with the Vikings (6-37-1 vs. them in Week 1) and Steelers (worst defense in the league in PPR points per game to WRs).
• Commanders WR Deebo Samuel (17.7 vs. 8): Simply hasn't looked like his usual dynamic self while playing through a heel injury. Deebo has averaged under 25 total yards per game across his last four contests and doesn't exactly profile as a great bounce-back candidate as long as Jayden Daniels (elbow) remains out of the picture.
• Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka (20.5 vs. 11.1): Last week's 6-115-1 receiving line was a good reminder that Egbuka remains quite awesome, but he totaled just nine receptions for 117 scoreless yards across his three previous contests (playing through a hamstring injury didn't help). I'd still expect more good than bad moving forward inside this injury-riddled passing game.
• Chargers WR Quentin Johnson (17.3 vs. 8.9): Has been the odd man out more weeks than not with McConkey balling out and TE Oronde Gadsden becoming a much bigger part of the offense. There's still big-play ability here, but Johnston has settled in as more of a boom-or-bust WR3 as opposed to the world-beater WR1 we saw throughout September.

4. Which man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 11?

Last week this section highlighted Rome Odunze (yay!), Ladd McConkey (alright!), Jaylin Lane (he had one big catch!) … Keenan Allen (well, that's not great) … and Brock Bowers (oh no). 

Still, Week 9 produced some quality rationale for feeling good about Alec Pierce and Josh Downs ahead of their respective top-16 performances. The common variable for several of these guys is the opportunity to simply play the Steelers' league-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position … but hey maybe that's something that we should accordingly keep doing!

So yes: Even the cleanest on-paper mismatches don't always come true. We are trying to predict the future in a sport featuring 60 minutes of 11-on-11 car crashes featuring the world's best athletes who attempt to move a ball that isn't even round, after all.

But damn, is that going to stop us from trying? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

With this in mind: Let's rekindle our strategy just a bit to focus on WRs ideally…

• Carrying quality weekly target shares and especially thrive against man coverage
• Facing one of the league's top-10 most man-heavy defenses
• Not going up against a truly elite pass defense

Three dudes who cleanly fit the bill but are obviously already being started in lineups of all shapes and sizes: Eagles WRs DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown, and Bengals WR Tee Higgins. Good news for their potential to really take advantage of their respective smashable spots, but yeah, we don't need to dive into why you should fire up these consensus top-20 WRs in the Fantasy Life ranks.

Anyway, there are three more situations worth looking at because it sure seems like these more under-the-radar WRs have a nice chance of racking up some yardage this week.

1. Patriots WR Stefon Diggs: Gets to tee off against the man-heavy, and Sauce Gardner-less, Jets this Thursday night. Diggs has posted a 28% target share against man coverage vs. 19% against zone this season. The man remains very good at football, as evidenced by last week's dope toe tap TD and ESPN's "Open Rating" (meant to quantity separation ability) that has him sitting pretty in fifth place entering Week 11.
2. Broncos WR Troy Franklin: Leads the team with a 30% target share against man coverage this season. Hell, Franklin leads the Broncos in total targets as well! Obviously Bo Nix isn't exactly guaranteed to put up big-time numbers against Steve Spagnuolo and company; just realize Franklin has at least eight targets in four consecutive games and has earned top-30 treatment at the position.
3. Vikings WR Jalen Nailor: The long shot of the group, Nailor trails Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in total target shares this season, but his splits vs. man (22%) compared to zone (6%) are pretty (Ned) stark. Credit to Nailor for putting together a 5-124-1 receiving line against the Ravens' man-heavy defense last week; an encore of sorts could be in order against the Bears.

5. Week 10 RB Report: Kimani Vidal played HOW MANY snaps last week?

Workhorse alert: 14 teams featured one single RB on at least 70% of their offense's snaps in Week 10: Kimani Vidal (94%), Jonathan Taylor (91%), De'Von Achane (88%), Ashton Jeanty (88%), Bijan Robinson (85%), TreVeyon Henderson (83%), Christian McCaffrey (78%), Woody Marks (78%), Rico Dowdle (78%), Josh Jacobs (74%), Aaron Jones (72%), Rachaad White (71%), Breece Hall (70%), and Saquon Barkley (70%). We also saw Chase Brown (95%), Javonte Williams (88%), and Kareem Hunt (81%) handle near every-down roles in Week 9 before their respective team's Week 10 byes.

All should be auto starts in pretty much fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes with the only two real exceptions being Marks (season-best usage but tough to be positive that it'll persist given last week's extreme negative game-script) and White (over the last two games Sean Tucker has eaten pretty heavily into what was previously a workhorse role). Even then, I typically let a workhorse RB's volume win as the tiebreaker over WR3 types in close start/sit decisions. I do additionally think Marks' boost in usage was more real than not considering he earned his first start of the season.

Still a bell-cow, wouldn't sweat it: RBs who didn't quite rack up a near every-down role in terms of snaps, but continued to dominate their backfield's overall touches and should be continued to be relied on in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes include:

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB4 in PPR points per game this season)
• James Cook (RB7)
• Kyren Williams (RB10)
• D'Andre Swift (RB12)
• Travis Etienne (RB18)
• Jaylen Warren (RB19)
• Quinshon Judkins (RB20)
• Derrick Henry (RB21)

Muddled committees are so lame: And the Cardinals, Commanders, Titans, and Seahawks largely continue to insist on deploying just that. None of the involved backs crack my top 24 and shouldn't be relied on with any sort of high-end confidence as long as these gross rotations persist.

That said: Keep an eye on the status of both Trey Benson (knee, IR) and Bam Knight (ankle). The absence of both would push Emari Demercado up the ranks into the mid-tier RB3 conversation, while Benson would presumably take his starting job back and could provide a nice boost down the stretch for a Cardinals offense that has generally been a bit more watchable with Jacoby Brissett under center in recent weeks.

There's a pulse!: Saints RB Alvin Kamara finally got something going last week, turning 25 touches into 115 total yards–his first game with more than 76 yards since Week 2! Now, things still aren't overly great – Kamara has 159 touches and just *one* TD this season–but Tyler Shough actually looked okay out there, and the team's schedule coming out of their Week 11 bye is honestly pretty juicy.

• Week 12 vs. Falcons: 29th in PPR points per game allowed to RBs
• Week 13 at Dolphins: 26th
• Week 14 at Buccaneers: 23rd
• Week 15 vs. Panthers: 17th
• Week 16 vs. Jets: 16th
• Week 17 at Titans: 28th

TD dependent early-down grinders: Feature JK Dobbins and David Montgomery, who don't have a high enough overall touch floor to be auto-starts with their general lack of pass-game involvement.

Of course, Dobbins (foot) is looking dicey for Week 11 after reportedly getting a second opinion on his new injury. Contrary to popular belief, I am not a doctor, but I'm guessing Dobbins didn't love the first doctor's opinion if he felt the need to get a second one. This could open the door for RJ Harvey, who has been stuck with minimal touches inside an offense that also insists on keeping Tyler Badie involved. Fantasy football veterans know better than to assume anything when it comes to trying to predict Sean Payton's player usage; just realize Harvey has made the most out of his touches all season (position-best 1.33 PPR points per touch!). I'd be willing to fire up Harvey as a legit mid-tier RB2 alongside guys like Jaylen Warren and Aaron Jones should Dobbins be unable to suit up against the Chiefs. My friend/The Athletic's Jake Ciely is a  bit more wary of Payton's history and said he'd rank Harvey behind Vidal on the Tuesday edition of The Pat Mayo Experience.

We're saying there's a chance: Week 9 was annoying for anyone who spent significant FAAB on Tyrone Tracy, but we actually got a glimmer of home in Week 10. Now, the firing of Brian Daboll and potential absence of Jaxson Dart (concussion) could very well make this offense a trainwreck ahead of Sunday's matchup with the Packers–I'm just saying there's at least a chance here!

6. Borderline erotic fantasy playoff schedules

I put together some strength of schedule charts for every position (except kickers. f*ck kickers) to help get you, a scholar, through the next four weeks and to look ahead to the fantasy playoffs if you're into that kind of thing. You can find the individual charts hyperlinked to each position below alongside my thoughts on  a key takeaway for Weeks 15-17:

QB: Obviously most will already have a QB locked down for this stretch, but keep an eye out on waivers for Brock Purdy if fantasy managers are getting restless waiting for his return. Maybe it does in fact take until after the 49ers' Week 14 bye, but yeah: We know Purdy is capable of putting forward QB1 numbers in fantasy land, and he closes out the season strong with the Titans, Colts, and Bears inside an offense that should be nearing full strength down the stretch.

RB: It's been tough sledding this season for training camp Hall of Famer Bill Croskey-Merritt, but the man has the single-best schedule during the playoffs thanks to two pristine matchups against the Giants (Week 15) and Cowboys (Week 17). The other speculative add here is Chris Rodriguez, who does seem to be trending up himself.

WR: This is gross. I get it. BUT: Jerry Jeudy finally showed signs of life in Week 10, and he carries the position's single-best schedule in Weeks 11-14 before getting the third-best playoff stretch thanks to winnable matchups against the Bears and Steelers in Weeks 15 and 17. Again, totally disgusting, but he's probably the most affordable top option among the top-five WR groups in the Vikings, 49ers, Browns, Commanders, and Eagles.

TE: While Mark Andrews and Tyler Warren have the best playoff schedules, the most realistic addition would actually be Dolphins TE Greg Dulcich, who has seen his usage rise in three consecutive weeks. Now, the answer could actually be Darren Waller, who is currently on IR with an allegedly non-season-ending pectoral injury. Either way: The Steelers, Bengals, and Buccaneers is a pretty, pretty, pretty great stretch to end the fantasy season with.

DST: The Buccaneers continue to profile as the best bet from Week 13 on, as Vita Vea and company will close out the fantasy season with the Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins. There isn't a better combination down the stretch of a good real life defense on a quality contender with a smashable schedule–and their currently tough stretch has them rostered in just 29% of ESPN leagues.

7. The DST Corner: Ravens and Falcons headline best waiver options

We're always looking for DSTs that …

1. Are good real life units
2. Have a great matchup against a bad offense
3. Are attached to good enough real life offenses to not screw them over with turnovers and bad field position

Accordingly, two defenses stick out as my favorite streaming options over the next few weeks among groups available in at least 49% of ESPN leagues as of Tuesday:

• Ravens DST (51% rostered on ESPN, CLE, NYJ, CIN, PIT, CIN through Week 15)
• Falcons DST (21% rostered on ESPN, CAR, NO, NYJ through Week 13)

Your break glass in case of emergency option this week is Da Bears (15% rostered), who deserve credit for racking up an NFL-best 20 takeaways through 10 weeks of action and get to face off against JJ McCarthy–a man with 15 sacks and six INTs to his name in just four starts.

Still don't have a DST available to your liking? Fine. The Cowboys DST (4% rostered) is facing a bad/injured Raiders offense led by Geno Smith, who has taken the fourth most sacks in the league while throwing the second-most INTs. Dallas should be better after trading for Quinnen Williams and they get stud LB DeMarvion Overshown back this week, as well. Throw in the presence of ace return man KaVontae Turpin, and I could at least see this defense/special teams creating enough big plays to return a top-12 finish this week.

8. Two cool Week 11 rankings questions and answers

I'll be publishing an early rankings column midday Monday throughout the season that gives my top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB//WR alongside some honorable mention picks while also answering a handful of questions regarding some of the week's biggest storylines. You can read the full Week 11 piece here, but I also wanted to highlight the two biggest questions and answers I had.

*Law and Order Music*

These are their stories.

What rookie WRs have been the most efficient with their opportunities?

The below chart denotes the yards and targets per route run from the 17 most-used rookie WRs:

Some notes:

• Emeka Egbuka is really good at football and rests as the WR9 in PPR points per game after 10 weeks of action. Hell yeah, brother.
• Tetairoa McMillan is also by all accounts very good, but unfortunately his pint-sized QB has a growing case as one of the bigger busts of the 21st century.
• Look at Luther Burden up there! The rookie simply moves different on the football field. From the routes, to the YAC: It'd be a lot cooler if Ben Johnson fully unleashed the talented second-rounder. Burden has literally been Caleb Williams' most-efficient target this season when it comes to passer rating when targeted.
• Jaylin Noel has also largely made plenty of good things happen when the ball has been thrown his way; too bad he's currently buried on the depth chart and ran the fifth most routes of any Texans WR last week.
• Did Travis Hunter (knee, IR) flash during the first nine weeks of the season? Yes. Was he also unusable in fantasy land aside from literally one big second half in a blowout loss? Also yes. I guess we'll never know if a big-time second half was coming, but it's funny to me that the same folks preaching that you must draft Hunter if you like winning all offseason seemingly just threw their hands up and said, "Man, injuries suck, I guess we'll never know what would have been." Anyway: Get better soon, Travis.
• I expected Patriots rookie WR Kyle Williams to pop if I lowered the target threshold low enough, but it was actually Panthers rookie Jimmy Horn Jr.! Now, much of Horn's usage has been of the gadgety variety which tends to produce outliers in charts like these (cc. Brashard Smith), but either way: Good for Jimmy!

What teams, not players, have produced the most TE fantasy points?

This question was 1000% inspired by the Rams seemingly using 20 different TEs on their way to beating down the 49ers on Sunday.

Most team-wide TE PPR points per game:

1. Cardinals (27.3)
2. Packers (25)
3. Bills (24.1)
4. Browns (23.8)
5. Steelers (23.7)
6. 49ers (21.4)
7. Rams (21.2)
8. Cowboys (20.8)
9. Raiders (20)
10. Lions (19.7)

The Rams do in fact improve to second if we only look at the last five weeks, but the real hilarious part here is the Steelers ranking fifth despite not having a single TE ranked better than 29th in PPR points per game. Arthur Smith would assuredly find this to be awesome if he cared at all about fantasy football.

In each instance: It'd be a lot cooler if we had one featured option to lean into in fantasy land, but life isn't fair, so unfortunately we'll continue to largely focus on other options at a position that has annoyed roughly 11 out of every 12 fantasy managers this season (shoutout Trey McBride though!).

9. One cool fact from every game that I find interesting for one reason or another

… yeah! Home team listed first:

• Thursday night football: Patriots (-11.5) vs. Jets: Patriots rookies TreVeyon Henderson (22.01 MPH) and Kyle Williams (21.78) recorded two of the NFL's top-nine fastest ball carrier speeds of the season last week.
• Madrid morning football: Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Commanders: Deebo Samuel averaged 17.7 PPR points per game in Weeks 1-5 (WR8) and racked up 14 tackles avoided … he's gone for 8 PPR points per game (WR57) with *one* tackle avoided since.
• Steelers (-5.5) vs. Bengals: Chase Brown's 96% snap rate in Week 9 was the first time he went over 63% since Week 4. Only the Rams were more willing to leave one RB on the field for 90% of the offense's snaps more often than the Bengals last season.
• Falcons (-3.5) vs. Panthers: Bryce Young is dead last in yards per attempt (5.8) among 119 QBs with 1,000-plus pass attempts since 2000.
• Titans vs. Texans (-7.5): Woody Marks earned his first start of the season last week, which adds some credence to the idea that his 16 touches and 80% snap rate weren't simply the result of extreme negative game script.
• Giants vs. Packers (-7.5): Jameis Winston (9.5) has the highest average target depth among 49 qualified QBs since 2000. The next-closest QB is Lamar Jackson … at 8.6.
• Vikings (-3) vs. Bears: Caleb Williams has avoided 15 tackles on passing plays AKA avoided sacks. The only other QBs in double-digits are Cam Ward (12) and Jaxson Dart (10).
• Bills (-5.5) vs. Buccaneers: Tez Johnson (14.2 PPR points per game) has out-scored Emeka Egbuka (11.1) since Week 6.
• Jaguars vs. Chargers (-3): In Weeks 1-4 Ladd McConkey averaged just 8.4 PPR points per game (WR56) … he's averaged 17.5 (WR9) since.
• Late-afternoon slate begins: Rams (-2.5) vs. Seahawks: Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet would be the PPR RB5 if they were one person … but they're not, so they're the RB29 and RB30 per game, respectively.
• Cardinals vs. 49ers (-2.5): Trey McBride has caught five TDs in four games with Jacoby Brissett under center. Note that McBride caught six TDs in 49 games during the 2022-2024 seasons.
• Browns vs. Ravens (-8.5): Zay Flowers caught a TD on his sixth target of the season … and he's since gone 60 targets without another one.
• Broncos vs. Chiefs (-3.5): Bo Nix and Troy Franklin have connected on just two of 25 targets (8%) thrown 30+ yards downfield over the last two seasons – easily the worst mark in the league.
• Sunday night football: Eagles (-1.5) vs. Lions: The Lions posted a -6% (tied for 31st) dropback rate over expected in Weeks 1-9, only to move up to +8% (tied for 2nd!) in Week 10 AKA when Dan Campbell took over play-calling.
• Monday night football: Raiders vs. Cowboys (-3.5): George PIckens averaged 24.2 PPR points per game in four games without CeeDee Lamb, but has gone for just 12.9 points per game in five games with the Cowboys' stud WR.

10. Three Bold Calls for Week 11

And I'm talking BOLD. No predicting Jonathan Taylor to have a big game, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have 100 yards: We're dumpster diving here in the pursuit of glory, but I swear there's legit reasoning to the madness (mostly in the form of my weekly mismatch manifesto charts).

1. Romeo Doubs goes OFF, torches the Giants for 100+ yards and a TD. The Packers' banged-up WR room has rotated quite a few bodies this season, but Doubs has been a staple as THE WR1. Expected to be good to go despite suffering a chest injury last week, it'd make sense if Doubs puts together a quality performance against the Giants' man-coverage heavy secondary that also happens to, well, generally suck. Bonus: Dontayvion Wicks will also find his way into the end zone.

2. RJ Harvey makes the most out of his first start–gains 100+ total yards and scores twice. The matchup isn't ideal, but the Broncos' offensive line has been good enough for Harvey to potentially win out anyway. The RB position's leader in PPR points per touch, Harvey has the sort of explosive pass-catching ability to make the most out of his opportunities, even if Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin are more involved than expected.

3. Greg Dulcich posts a top-10 fantasy week; goes 6-65-1 in Madrid. The Dolphins' latest starting TE has seen his role expand in three consecutive weeks and now profiles as the team's every-down option at the position ahead of this rather awesome Madrid-themed matchup with the Commanders. Obviously this passing game flows through Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane first and foremost, but Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel should be able to get some decent numbers from the offense's potential third pass-game option as well.

Last week: Zay Flowers (4-75-0) did not finally boom, Kyle Monangai (RB29) did not post a top-24 finish even with D'Andre Swift back, and Khalil Shakir (7-58-0) had a nice enough game but I wouldn't exactly say he "torched" them. … As always: We'll watch the film and get better.

Thank you all for reading and best of luck in Week 11 and beyond!