Early Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings: Caleb Williams and Puka Nacua are on the Rise
Ian Hartitz projects the early rankings for Week 4, taking into account the early performances to raise and drop players at their positions.
Hide your kids, hide your wife: Week 4 is here. It's time to win another fantasy matchup, people!
What follows are my abbreviated early PPR ranks along with some key questions and answers ahead of this week's slate of action. Check out our Fantasy Life Rankings for full ranks from our squad of alleged expert rankers (code "IAN" for 20% off!).
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Early Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings
Quarterback
What quarterbacks have had the least help from their friends?
While the QB is the most impactful player on the field, football remains a team game, and it's clear that some have had less help than others when looking at every offense's average time to pressure and drop rate.
We see two clear outliers here:
- The Jaguars easily lead the league in drop rate, as Trevor Lawrence's wideouts have dropped a whopping 13 passes through three weeks—no other offense is even in double digits. All four of the team's top WRs have multiple drops on the season, "led" by Brian Thomas Jr. (3) and Dyami Brown (3). Pro Football Reference gives the Jaguars a 50.9% on-target pass rate—the 14th-best mark in the league.
- The J-e-t-s, Jets, Jets, Jets have been allowing a ton of pressure while simultaneously not offering a ton of help in the good hands department. Such is life when you decide to unironically surround Garrett Wilson with NPCs like Tyler Johnson, Arian Smith and Allen Lazard. Of course, neither Justin Fields nor Tyrod Taylor would likely be confused with a great thrower of the football even in a pristine offensive environment; just realize both haven't exactly been dealt the best hand inside this Tanner Engstrand-led offensive attack.
Who is offering the most fantasy-friendly rushing upside?
Dual-threat QBs continue to be one of the closest things that fantasy football has to cheat codes. The top eight signal-callers in fantasy points from strictly rushing production this season are as follows (pre-MNF):
- Jalen Hurts (35.7)
- Patrick Mahomes (24.5)
- Daniel Jones (23.5)
- Josh Allen (23.4)
- Justin Fields (21.7)
- Caleb Williams (15.7)
- Drake Maye (14.7)
- Lamar Jackson (14.3)
Not the most surprising list in the world with the exceptions being Mr. Mahomes and the artist known as Indiana Jones. The former has never reached 400 rushing yards in a season, yet is on pace for a whopping 708 yards on the ground. Mahomes has achieved this in large part thanks to his scrambling excellence: Nobody has more rushing yards on scrambles (128) and a whopping 66.7% of them have gone for first downs—a mark which is only bested by Baker Mayfield (80%).
An additional shoutout to Jones, who has been a force to be reckoned with on the goal line (3 rush TDs inside the 5-yard line) on his way to emerging as the season's frontrunner for Comeback Player of the Year—and dare I say—a legit MVP candidate. What a time to be alive!
Best of the rest
QB13 Bo Nix: It's been a rough start to Year 2 for the Broncos QB, particularly in Week 3's loss to the Chargers. It'd make sense if next week's Monday Night Football spot against the Bengals brings out a better performance, but yeah, last Sunday was ROUGH.
QB15 Dak Prescott: While neither of Dak's Week 3 interceptions were of the brutal variety, he does find himself atop the league leaderboard in terms of combined interceptions and dropped interceptions. Overall, Prescott (6) is tied with Aaron Rodgers (6) atop this not-great category, with Jake Browning, Geno Smith, Joe Flacco and Trevor Lawrence all coming in tied for third with five such instances. Best of luck to Dak and company against the Packers' Micah Parsons-led pass rush—Green Bay has generated the fifth-highest pressure rate (45%) in the league through three weeks of action.
QB19 Sam Darnold: Shoutout to the much-maligned 28-year-old veteran for largely putting his best foot forward in 2025. Darnold is averaging career-best marks in yards per attempt (9) and passer rating (104.7) on his way to working as PFF's highest-graded QB. Unfortunately in fantasy land, it's still hard to be TOO excited because the Seahawks have largely been content to run the damn ball. Overall, nobody has a lower dropback rate over expected than the Seahawks (-6.8%) through three weeks.
QB22 C.J. Stroud: The Texans' 32nd-ranked scoring offense has plenty of problems, but OC Nick Caley's impact in particular raises a lot of questions. Overall, the team is dead last in play-action rate (16%) and ranks just 19th in pre-snap shift/motion (48%). Obviously this isn't exactly what the kids would call a "good" offensive environment, but Stroud also isn't completely devoid of blame: Reminder that the 23-year-old talent has a 20:16 TD:INT ratio since big-dogging Caleb Williams after the Texans' Week 2 win over the Bears last season.
QB25 Michael Penix: The Penix experience was a lot of fun in 2024, as the gunslinger displayed fearless downfield aggression and made more than a few awesome tight-window throws. This season … not so much. The second-year QB's average target depth has cratered (10.2 vs. 7.2) and he hasn't found much success even when pushing the ball downfield. Overall, Penix joins Lawrence as the only two QBs without a single completion on a deep pass thrown at least 20 yards downfield this season. Not great!
Running Back
What running backs are racking up the most production in the pass game?
Just like rushing QBs are cheat codes in fantasy land, receiving RBs tend to really rack up points thanks to their multiple means of picking up production.
The following RBs have showcased their ability in the passing game to an extreme level so far in 2025.
RB most PPR points from purely receiving:
- Christian McCaffrey (55.3)
- De'Von Achane (44.1)
- Bijan Robinson (36.4)
- Jaylen Warren (31.2)
- Chuba Hubbard (29.4)
- Bucky Irving (29.1)
Overall, CMC (25 receptions) and Achane (18) both lead their respective passing games in total catches and rank third and 11th leaguewide. Not too shabby of a floor to have in full-PPR scoring.
An additional shoutout to Bijan and Warren ,AKA the league's only two RBs to lead their offense in both rushing and receiving yards through three weeks.
Who have been the RB position's best individual performers so far?
In terms of rush yards after contact and tackles avoided per carry …
Shoutout to Cam Skattebo and Quinshon Judkins for really popping here; both are deserving of low-end RB2 treatment as long as they continue to profile as their backfield's clear-cut bell cow options.
Meanwhile, the likes of Bucky Irving, Chase Brown and Saquon Barkley, among others, have largely been riding the struggle bus when it comes to creating many yards on their own this season. Of course, it's harder to stand out in these sorts of metrics with more volume, and each has also dealt with varying degrees of offensive line injuries to start the season.
What defenses are looking like stayaway groups against RBs in fantasy land?
Five defenses have limited their opponents' RBs to under 0.5 rush yards before contact per carry through three weeks:
- Browns (-0.12)
- Patriots (0)
- Packers (0.29)
- Commanders (0.4)
- Raiders (0.48)
That Cleveland number really is ridiculous: Opposing RBs have on average faced first contact behind the line of scrimmage against Myles Garrett and company this season!
Touchdowns and good receiving usage are always capable of overcoming a bad on-paper matchup, but it's probably fair to not have the biggest Week 4 expectations for RBs from the Lions, Panthers, Cowboys, Falcons and Bears.
Who is currently on pace to rack up 300-plus touches?
Somehow, 14 different RBs currently boast a 17-game touch pace of at least 300 (pre-MNF):
- Christian McCaffrey (436)
- Bucky Irving (397)
- Saquon Barkley (385)
- Jonathan Taylor (385)
- Josh Jacobs (363)
- James Cook (351)
- Bijan Robinson (346)
- Kyren Williams (340)
- Alvin Kamara (334)
- Tony Pollard (323)
- Javonte Williams (317)
- Chase Brown (312)
- Jaylen Warren (306)
- Chuba Hubbard (300)
Note that Ashton Jeanty (295) just missed the cut, and he's the poster child for not all touches being created equal. Consider: Jeanty has 144 rushing yards … and 146 rushing yards AFTER contact this season. That's not normal!
Overall, the Packers (0.4), Steelers (0.3), Browns (0.3) and Bengals (0.2) have been the league's least-adept run games in terms of creating rushing yards BEFORE contact per carry for their RBs.
There's also been a lack of scoring upside for plenty of these backs. Irving leads the way with a league-high 56 carries without a rushing TD this season, but CMC (52) and Bijan (47) aren't too far behind.
Best of the rest
RB25 J.K. Dobbins: The Broncos largely refrained from using Tyler Badie in Week 3, instead loading up Dobbins with his most fantasy-friendly workload of the season. Obviously there are plenty of angry RJ Harvey drafters out there; just realize Dobbins is the clear lead back here and could rise up into the position's top-20 options with another good week of utilization.
RB30 Nick Chubb: The veteran's stranglehold on the Texans backfield is seemingly growing weaker by the week, as rookie Woody Marks continues to turn this into a more evenly split two-back committee. And for good reason: Chubb simply hasn't been able to push the pile the same way as he once could.
Lowest percentage of carries to gain 3+ yards after contact this season:
- Zach Charbonnet (29%)
- D'Andre Swift (28%)
- Alvin Kamara (28%)
- Saquon Barkley (27%)
- Nick Chubb (26%)
RB31 TreVeyon Henderson and RB32 Rhamondre Stevenson: This backfield began to tilt heavily in Henderson's favor after Stevenson lost not one but TWO fumbles during the Patriots' Week 3 loss to the Steelers. Hell, Antonio Gibson fumbled once as well. Friendly reminder that Henderson was charged with *zero* career fumbles on 667 collegiate touches at THE Ohio State University. Here's to hoping the explosive rookie gets more of an opportunity moving forward, but for now it's tough to overly trust anyone involved in Josh McDaniels' three-headed backfield.
RB33 Jacory Croskey-Merritt: The Commanders deployed a three-headed backfield in their first game without Austin Ekeler. It was actually Chris Rodriguez who got the start and first bit of early-down action, which is pretty wild considering, you know, he was a healthy scratch behind Bill during the first two weeks of the season. There was also plenty of Jeremy McNichols, and hey, credit to the longtime backup for making the most out of his opportunities. I still expect Bill to be the most fantasy-friendly RB here in the long term, but it's tough to be overly optimistic about anyone stuck in this sort of evenly split committee.
RB37 Blake Corum: I highlighted Corum in my piece on the top handcuffs available in over 60% of ESPN and Yahoo leagues last week. While this is still very clearly Kyren Williams' backfield, Corum joins Tyler Allgeier, Ray Davis, Woody Marks and Kyle Monangai as rather solid bench stashes; each is one injury away to their team's starter from finding their way onto the cover of waiver wire articles of all shapes and sizes.
Wide Receiver
What passing games are most condensed around their top-two WRs?
While eight different offenses have fed more than 50% of the team's total targets to two specific WRs this season, many are examples of one baller essentially soaking up the heavy majority of opportunities (examples: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, Nico Collins).
There are actually just two passing games that have featured multiple WRs with target shares north of 25%:
- Rams: Puka Nacua (39%) and Davante Adams (31%)
- Eagles: DeVonta Smith (26%) and A.J. Brown (25%)
Credit to Matthew Stafford and the Rams for enabling both Puka (PPR WR1) and Adams (WR13) to some pretty great early-season heights; both join Kyren Williams as staples inside of fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes regardless of the matchup.
As for the Eagles: It was refreshing to see them re-discover the ability to throw the football during their spirited second-half comeback win over the Rams (even if it made me look like a big fat phony). It'd make sense if they have to again throw the football a bit more than they might prefer this week against Vita Vea and the Buccaneers' pass-funnel defense.
Who have been the most disappointing receivers so far relative to preseason ADP?
There are eight preseason top-36 WRs with a 30+ rank dropoff in consensus preseason ADP and PPR rank through three weeks of the season:
- Xavier Worthy (preseason WR17 ADP, PPR WR184 rank)
- Tee Higgins (WR11 ADP, PPR WR60)
- Brian Thomas (WR7 ADP, PPR WR53)
- Matthew Golden (WR36 ADP, PPR WR78)
- Terry McLaurin (WR15 ADP, PPR WR56)
- Calvin Ridley (WR28 ADP, PPR WR69)
- Travis Hunter (WR34 ADP, PPR WR72)
- Drake London (WR10 ADP, PPR WR43)
Not great, although Worthy, Higgins and London have had injuries involved in their respective disappointing starts. There's too much talent in this group to expect continued busts all around, although things certainly aren't looking good at the moment.
This sentiment is especially true in Jacksonville, where T-Law has more or less had plenty of success targeting everyone … except his two first-round WRs.
Lawrence passer rating by target:
- Bhayshul Tuten (141.7)
- Dyami Brown (119.9)
- Travis Etienne (109.9)
- Brenton Strange (102.3)
- Parker Washington (51.6)
- Travis Hunter (34.4)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (29.6)
Reminder: A QB receives a passer rating of 39.6 from spiking the football. BTJ and Hunter join Jerry Jeudy and Xavier Legette as the league's only four players with 15+ targets who cannot attest to clearing the "spike line."
What WRs have left the most yards on the field for one reason or another?
"Unrealized air yards" measures the total amount of air yards on incomplete targets. This helps identify players who had all sorts of fantasy-friendly downfield opportunities, but they simply couldn't come up with completions for one reason or another.
Anyway, 11 players have more than 170 unrealized air yards through the first three weeks of the season (pre-MNF):
- Malik Nabers (329)
- Tyquan Thornton (303)
- Brian Thomas (240)
- Mike Evans (218)
- Quentin Johnston (203)
- Chris Olave (195)
- Tyreek Hill (191)
- Dont'e Thornton (187)
- Rome Odunze (182)
- Jerry Jeudy (177)
- Calvin Ridley (172)
Of course, plenty of these players are dealing with less-than-ideal situations under center, and this stat also lends itself to field-stretching types with more volatile catch rates due to mostly dealing with trickier downfield targets. Still, it'd be a lot cooler if these receivers could get on a better page with their respective QBs, as there have been a LOT of yards left on the field from each.
Best of the rest
WR27 Quentin Johnston, WR31 Keenan Allen: I'm *this* close to ranking both ahead of alleged No. 1 WR Ladd McConkey. After all, Keenan (PPR WR5) and QJ (WR7) have posted elite WR1 numbers so far, and McConkey has … not (WR40). The good news: Justin Herbert is a baller and playing the best football of his career, and the Chargers trail only the Chiefs in dropback rate over expected. I'm confident better days will be ahead for Ladd, although upside WR1 heights could be problematic with the WR room's "other guys" continuing to perform so well.
WR30 Chris Olave: Leads the NFL in total targets (37) … and most targets without a TD. The Saints have shrunk Olave's typically sky-high average target depth, which has made for more consistency out of the Ohio State product; just realize he's still in anyone's idea of an up-and-(mostly)-down passing attack that has also kept Juwan Johnson and Rashid Shaheed plenty involved. I'm hesitant in freaking out about calling Olave a buy-low option; he feels fairly priced as a solid volume-based WR3 at the moment.
WR35 Romeo Doubs and WR36 Matthew Golden: Both Doubs and Golden have flashed to varying degrees this season, but this ranking boost is really due to the sad excuse for a pass defense that is the Dallas Cowboys. This defense has easily been the league's worst group at limiting opposing WRs due to a sad combination of a mediocre pass rush (30%, 25th) and a general inability to stick with opposing pass catchers.
WR37 Marvin Harrison Jr.: We might have to start calling the artist formerly known as Maserati Marv "Mitsubishi Marv" after last week's performance. It's not like Marv has been the only culprit for his lack of production every week out, but yeah, last Sunday was ROUGH.
WR39 Michael Pittman: Trails Tyler Warren in total targets (21 vs. 19), but does have the edge on Josh Downs (14) and Alec Pierce (13). This shouldn't be super surprising considering Pittman's history of putting up great fantasy numbers as long as he wasn't playing through a brutal back injury. Overall, he's posted PPR per-game finishes as the WR24, WR22, WR14, WR45, and so far this year, the WR12. I'm still a little skeptical of Pittman's weekly ceiling in this crowded passing game, but so far, so good!
WR49 Tre Tucker: What a f*cking performance! 8 receptions, 145 yards and a trio of TDs for the pint-sized speedster who earned a Santana Moss comp from Geno Smith this preseason. Now, we still fully expect Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers to lead the way more weeks than not moving forward, but Tucker has entered the top-50 and is deserving of boom-or-bust WR4 consideration.
Tight End
What tight ends have made the most out of their opportunities?
In terms of yards and targets per route run …
Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Trey McBride and Brock Bowers offer the best combinations of high-end efficiency and volume at the position. They are the clear-cut top-four options at the position as long as George Kittle remains sidelined—Dalton Kincaid would have a case to join them if he could ever carve out a true full-time role inside the Bills' "everybody eats" offensive attack.
Meanwhile, Jake Ferguson is leading the position in total targets (32!), but simply cannot find the end zone for the life of him. Consider: A$AP Ferg has gone a whopping 120 targets since finding the end zone … which coincidentally happened the last time he faced the Packers all the way back in the 2023 Wild Card round!
Best of the rest
TE13 Harold Fannin: Leads all TEs in tackles avoided (6) and continues to look every bit like a future star at the position. The man is a BEAST. While it's tough to be overly high on any individual member of the Browns' 30th-ranked scoring offense, both Fannin and David Njoku have carved out near every-down roles inside this two-TE attack.
TE14 Hunter Henry: Has put together 4-66-0 and most recently 8-90-2 receiving lines around Week 2's 1-9-0 dud. The receiving-yards ceiling might not ever be super high here, but the Patriots don't seem to have any WRs they love, leading to Henry earning a team-high 22 targets through three weeks. I'll be forced to bump Henry up into the TE1 ranks with another game as the offense's clear-cut No. 1 pass-game target.
TE18 Chig Okonkwo: Has steadily improved with 3-19-0, 4-35-0 and 5-66-0 receiving lines this season. Now, this Cam Ward-led attack has a very real case as the worst offense in the NFL; please don't go out of your way to start Chiggy in any matchup at the moment. Still, the underlying usage numbers do look the part of a TE1 in fantasy land.
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