Fantasy Football Projections: Alvin Kamara and More Running Backs Projected for 50+ Targets

Earlier this week, I published a piece on the RBs with 10+ TDs in my season-long player projections.

Why?

Because the connection between TDs and fantasy points is strong.

But also strong for RBs is the link between targets and fantasy scoring.

Here are the correlations between my projected targets and projected 0.5 PPR fantasy points.

Coefficient of Correlation (R): 0.914
Coefficient of Determination (R Squared): is 0.836

Translated for normal people: Across my RB data set, 83.6% of my fantasy point projections can be explained by my target projections.

Generally, that means we want dudes active in the pass game.

With that in mind, here are the 13 RBs I have projected for 50+ targets this season (in order from least to most).

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Running Backs Projecting For 50+ Targets In 2025 Fantasy Football

RB Tyjae Spears (Titans) - 50 Targets

ADP: 123.3 (RB41)
Projection: 136.9 (RB32)

I recently took Tyjae Spears at pick 9.07 in a 14-team PPR ESPN mock draft (via our Draft Champion simulator), and I was happy to get him there.

In Weeks 15-16 last year, starter Tony Pollard was hampered with an injury, and then he missed Week 17.

In those three games, Spears had 261 yards and four TDs on 34 carries, 15 targets, and an 82 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

If Pollard were to miss any games, Spears would be an immediate fantasy starter in his absence—and as it is, I'm expecting them to split time, which gives Spears a chance to steal the job from Pollard if he notably outplays him.

RB Tony Pollard (Titans) - 50 Targets

ADP: 75.1 (RB28)
Projection: 180.1 (RB21)

I know I just made the bull case for Spears … but I also like Tony Pollard, which I guess is another way of saying these three things.

The market is too low on the Titans offense and backfield overall.
The Titans offense is likely to flow through the backfield.
The Titans offense should be better this year with the addition of QB Cam Ward.

But I also just like Pollard on his own.

At 28 years old, he's nearing the age cliff, but he's had at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in each of the past three seasons.

He's one of the 32 players I want to draft this year.

RB D'Andre Swift (Bears) - 53 Targets

ADP: 63.5 (RB23)
Projection: 203.8 (RB13)

On the first episode of the Talk Data to Me Show (a new Fantasy Life pod with Dwain McFarland), he and I discussed the traits that make RBs go boom.

I don't think either of us mentioned D'Andre Swift on the show—but I have a surprisingly high projection on him, and he strikes me as a guy who has the attributes that could help him explode.

First of all, I expect his offense to be improved thanks to the second-year maturation of QB Caleb Williams and the offseason addition of offensive HC Ben Johnson, as well as LG Joe Thuney, C Drew Dalman, and RG Jonah Jackson.

On top of that, Swift has little competition in his backfield, he's a three-down player, and he's coming off a career-best 1,345-yard campaign.

Swift is one of my favorite Zero RB candidates.

RB Austin Ekeler (Commanders) - 54 Targets

ADP: 133.9 (RB44)
Projection: 131.2 (RB35)

Austin Ekeler is one of my favorite 2025 fantasy bench picks, and I mentioned him on a recent episode of the Fantasy Life Show as a sleeper.

He's past his prime at 30 years old, but Ekeler returned to form with the 2024 Commanders as an efficient change-of-pace producer (4.8 yards per carry, 8.9 yards per target).

He's in a good offense, he has an established pass-catching role, and if he were, for whatever reason, to get goal-line work, I think he'd do well (he led the NFL in back-to-back seasons with 20 and 18 TDs in 2021-22).

During the byes, Ekeler will be flexible, and if starter Brian Robinson misses any games, Ekeler will likely enjoy a usage boost.

RB Breece Hall (Jets) - 57 Targets

ADP: 35.0 (RB14)
Projection: 203.4 (RB15)

I'm conflicted on Breece Hall.

Earlier in the offseason, I put him on my do-not-draft list.

I think that the Jets offense could be bad and that Hall might lose work in both the designed rushing game and the checkdown passing game because of running QB Justin Fields.

But the market has reasonably moved down on Hall … and now he's more palatable to me.

Last year, he was No. 3 at the position with 76 targets. The year before that, No. 1 with 95 targets.

There's no denying that the dude does serious work as a pass catcher, and that gives him an elevated floor: In 40 career games, he has 3,625 scrimmage yards.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) - 61 Targets

ADP: 4.9 (RB3)
Projection: 247.5 (RB4)

Jahmy Gibbs is just 23 years old, and he might get more work with new OC John Morton.

As great as Gibbs was last year (1,929 yards, 20 TDs), he might be even better this year.

RB Aaron Jones (Vikings) - 62 Targets

ADP: 67.2 (RB25)
Projection: 190.6 (RB18)

Aaron Jones might lose some goal-line work and every third series to No. 2 RB Jordan Mason—but he has averaged 1,298.9 yards and 9.4 TDs from scrimmage on 193.0 carries and 58.3 targets across his seven seasons as a starter.

Even with Mason, those numbers feel like a reasonable back-of-the-envelope projection for Jones—and he should benefit from the offseason additions of LG Donovan Jackson, C Ryan Kelly, and RG Will Fries.

RB Chase Brown (Bengals) - 65 Targets

ADP: 27.3 (RB12)
Projection: 205.6 (RB12)

In his eight games last year without former starter Zack Moss (since released by the team), Chase Brown had 930 yards and six TDs on 151 carries, 44 targets, and a position-best 95 Utilization Score.

I have him as the No. 11 RB in my 2025 fantasy draft rankings and think he's fairly priced within the market.

RB Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) - 70 Targets

ADP: 10.8 (RB5)
Projection: 213.3 (RB10)

I hate to say it … but Ashton Jeanty is one of the guys I'm fading at ADP.

I expect the Raiders offense to flow through him, which is why I've projected him for a strong workload (227 carries, 70 targets).

His three-down role should give him a high floor.

But I expect the Raiders offense to be middling at best, and there are only so many yards and TDs I can project for a rookie RB on a mediocre team—so I think his high floor is accompanied by a lowi-sh ceiling.

That said, would it be surprising if Jeanty balls out in 2025? No. That's within the range of outcomes.

But I'd expect a rookie season more like the one we saw from …

RB Bijan Robinson (Falcons) - 70 Targets

ADP: 3.0 (RB1)
Projection: 261.8 (RB2)

Bijan Robinson wasn't bad at all as a rookie (1,463 yards, eight TDs), but he leveled up in his second season (1,887 yards, 15 TDs), and he could be even better in 2025 as he enters his prime age (23 years old) and if second-year QB Michael Penix lives up to his first-round draft capital.

Both seasons of his career, Robinson has been one of the position's top target earners.

2024: 72 (No. 4)
2023: 86 (No. 2)

His ceiling/floor combination is elite. He might be the league's best RB right now.

RB De'Von Achane (Dolphins) - 78 Targets

ADP: 14.0 (RB7)
Projection: 248.9 (RB3)

Last year, De'Von Achane had 1,151 yards and 11 TDs on 143 carries and 73 targets in 11 games with QB Tua Tagovailoa.

That's unreal usage and production.

He could legitimately have 1,700 yards and 17 TDs this year on 200 carries and 100 targets.

RB Christian McCaffrey (49ers) - 82 Targets

ADP: 10.4 (RB4)
Projection: 265.8 (RB1)

No. 1 WR Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL last season and is currently on active/PUP. No. 2 WR Deebo Samuel was traded away this offseason. No. 3 WR Jauan Jennings is dealing with a lingering calf injury in training camp. And No. 4 WR Ricky Pearsall is unproven.

With the WR room this uncertain, Christian McCaffrey has an actual chance to lead the 49ers in targets this year.

A knee injury derailed his 2024 season, but just a year ago, he was the No. 1 overall pick in most leagues. He's healthy now, and in his three full games last year—without the benefit of preseason training—he had 281 yards on 43 carries, 16 targets, and an 88 Utilization Score.

As I discussed recently on the Fantasy Life Show with Dwain McFarland and Ian Hartitz, I still expect the 49ers offense to be good this year—and I additionally expect it to flow through McCaffrey.

It's aggressive, but I'm fine having McCaffrey projected as the No. 1 RB in fantasy.

RB Alvin Kamara (Saints) - 87 Targets

ADP: 41.4 (RB15)
Projection: 221.8 (RB8)

Here he is: My highest-projected RB target earner for the 2025 season!

For his career, Kamara has 11,541 scrimmage yards in 115 games.

That's an average of 100.4 yards per game … and he's done that despite never having 1,000 yards rushing in any NFL season.

That's wild stuff—but it speaks to Kamara's yearly consistency as a pass catcher.

He's never had fewer than 60 targets in a season, and only once has he had fewer than 75.

Despite missing at least a couple of games in each of the past three years and playing without former offensive HC Sean Payton, Kamara has still averaged 84 targets per season since 2022.

Only once has Kamara had fewer than 1,300 scrimmage yards, and last season he put up 1,493 yards and eight TDs in 14 games with a position-high 93 Utilization Score.

The Saints offense could be extraordinarily bad this year … but even if it is—Kamara will still probably have 200+ carries and 80+ targets as long as he stays healthy.

And with that usage, it will be hard for him not to have another 1,300-yard season.