Fantasy Football Projections: Pass Catchers Projected For 120+ Targets In 2025

A few days ago, I wrote a piece on the RBs I have projected for 50+ targets.

In this piece, I want to highlight some of the WRs and TEs projected for 120 targets.

In general, I view 120 targets as a solid benchmark.

If a WR hits that number over the course of a season, he's almost certainly an every-week starter, regardless of matchup. No matter what, he's in your lineup, because he has the target volume to give him a consistently solid floor.

And if a TE hits that number, he has a very good chance to earn a top-three positional finish.

So targets matter. In fact, they might be the only thing that matters for pass catchers in redraft, best ball, and Guillotine Leagues.

Here are the correlations between my projected targets and projected 0.5 PPR fantasy points for WRs and TEs this year.

Coefficient of Correlation (R): 0.988
Coefficient of Determination (R Squared): 0.977

If you're a normal person, here's what that means: Across my WR & TE data set, 97.7% of my fantasy point projections can be explained by my target projections.

Right now, I have 23 players (20 WRs, 3 TEs) projected for 120+ targets. To see the full list, check out my 2025 season-long player projections.

In this piece, I want to highlight a handful of these players in the context of their overall projection and their consensus average draft position (per our Fantasy Life ADP Draft Board).

To access all our tools (such as my projections and our 2025 fantasy draft rankings), use the promo code "FREEDMAN" for a 20% discount on the FantasyLife+ package.

Pass Catchers With 2025 Projections of 120+ Targets

WR Malik Nabers (Giants) - 166 Targets

Target Projection: WR1
Point Projection: WR4
ADP: 12.0 (WR5)

Last year as a rookie, Malik Nabers had a league-high 35% target share, which he leveraged into 109-1,204-7 receiving in 15 games. He could naturally be even more dominant in his second season, and his QB situation—with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart—should be better.

Despite his Round 1 ADP, Naber has the potential to exceed expectations.

WR Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) - 158 Targets

Target Projection: WR3
Point Projection: WR1
ADP: 1.7 (WR1)

This is what a future Hall of Famer looks like.

Last year, Ja'Marr Chase had a Triple Crown 127-1,708-17 receiving campaign with a position-best 95 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Chase's elite ceiling/floor combination is nearly unrivaled.

WR Justin Jefferson (Vikings) - 146 Targets

Target Projection: WR5
Point Projection: WR8
ADP: 5.6 (WR2)

Jefferson is a top-three NFL WR, but the projection process tends to be conservative by nature, and I can be only so aggressive with my top-down offensive assumptions when second-year QB J.J. McCarthy is unproven with zero NFL starts.

I like McCarthy and think he will be a good professional. And I have enormous respect for offensive HC Kevin O'Connell, who's one of the league's best playcallers.

But it's reasonable to expect the offense this year for the Vikings to be less productive than it was last year, when Sam Darnold had 4,319 yards and 35 TDs passing.

On top of that, Jefferson (hamstring) is dealing with a soft-tissue injury, which could linger into the season, and he also needs to compete for targets with WR Jordan Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson.

I fear that Jefferson's potential downside is not accounted for in his ADP. As a result, he's one of the guys I'm fading this year.

WR Davante Adams (Rams) - 142 Targets

Target Projection: WR6
Point Projection: WR13
ADP: 37.2 (WR15)

Over the past two years, this is what we've seen out of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams on a per-game basis.

Opportunities: Nacua - 10.3 | Adams - 10.2
Yards: Nacua - 93.3 | Adams - 71.2
TDs: Nacua - 0.36 | Adams - 0.52

Nacua has been the more productive yardage accumulator—but he's done that while playing with offensive HC Sean McVay and QB Matthew Stafford, while Adams has been shackled to the Raiders and Jets.

Even so, Adams has been the more prolific TD scorer, and they've earned a nearly identical number of opportunities (targets plus carries).

Bottom line: Adams has a non-zero chance of outproducing Nacua this season.

WR Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) - 135 Targets

Target Projection: WR8
Point Projection: WR7
ADP: 30.9 (WR13)

Tyreek Hill was my Round 2 selection in a recent 14-team PPR ESPN mock draft. (By the way, check out our Draft Champion mock simulator.)

I think he is one of this year's biggest ADP values.

Just last year, he was a top-three fantasy pick. Now, he's often available in Round 3.

What happened?

Hill suffered a wrist injury that plagued him for the entire season, and QB Tua Tagovailoa missed six games. Unsurprisingly, Hill had a down year.

Still, in his three seasons with the Dolphins, he has averaged 9.6 yards per target. For his career, 9.5.

In his first couple of campaigns with the team, he piled up 3,556 yards and 21 TDs from scrimmage as a two-time first-team All-Pro.

Even at the age of 31, Hill, I believe, could regain his Pro Bowl form this season.

WR Jerry Jeudy (Browns) - 129 Targets

Target Projection: WR11
Point Projection: WR18
ADP: 78.9 (WR33)

When you look at Jerry Jeudy, his projection is surprisingly high … but I think it also makes sense.

Last year, Jeudy finally broke out with 1,229 yards receiving, and he was especially dominant without QB Deshaun Watson (Achilles), putting up 69-963-3 receiving on 103 targets in his final 10 games.

Given how unsettled the Browns are at WR, I think Jeudy could reprise the role he had last year at season's end, when he was the No. 8 WR with an 87 Utilization Score.

And the Browns offense could be better than expected: QB Joe Flacco has 4,755 yards and 32 TDs passing in his past 17 starts, and rookie Shedeur Sanders played well in his first preseason game.

At his ADP, Jeudy should smash. He's one of the 32 guys I'm drafting this year.

WR Garrett Wilson (Jets) - 125 Targets

Target Projection: WR13
Point Projection: WR33
ADP: 38.1 (WR16)

For me, Jerry Jeudy and Garrett Wilson are almost exact opposites in terms of their ADPs and point projections.

My projection for Wilson is low—but my gut agrees with it.

Wilson is a great player (three straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons), but I expect the Jets to have an inefficient, slow, and run-heavy offense, and OC Tanner Engstrand has never been an NFL playcaller before.

And then there's QB Justin Fields. For his career, he has a 6.5 AY/A—and that's not good for Wilson.

With 125 targets, he should have a respectable and consistent weekly floor.

But the overall quality of those targets I expect to be poor, which means that Wilson—because of his QB and playcaller and overall offensive environment—could struggle to convert those targets into yards and TDs.

That will make it hard for Wilson to outperform his ADP.

He's one of the 32 guys I'm fading.

WR Drake London (Falcons) - 123 Targets

Target Projection: WR15
Point Projection: WR25
ADP: 20.4 (WR9)

If second-year QB Michael Penix ends up being great, then my projection for Drake London will likely be way too low.

But right now, I think London is being drafted as if the 39 targets he saw in Penix's three end-of-season starts will extrapolate across a full season.

Here's the problem with that logic: Those three games were against subpar pass defenses (Giants, Commanders, Panthers), and two of them went into OT.

Plus, Penix is still unproven—and I expect much of the Falcons offense to flow through the backfield.

WR Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) - 122 Targets

Target Projection: WR20
Point Projection: WR35
ADP: 67.1 (WR29)

Over the summer, Tetairoa McMillan's ADP has fallen to a more reasonable range, where now I'm more willing to draft him because of his target volume and upside as a Round 1 rookie.

But he'll need to compete for opportunities with veteran WR Adam Thielen, who has converted 199 targets over the past two seasons into 1,629 yards receiving. Even though Thielen will be 35 years old in Week 1, I doubt McMillan will overtake him quickly.

And then there's the probability that the Panthers offense—led by QB Bryce Young—will be subpar.

Think back to what we saw out of the comparable Drake London as a rookie in 2022: 117 targets—that's great—but he still had just 866 yards and four TDs.

Unless the Panthers offense is markedly better than expected, McMillan will struggle to break out even with strong volume.

TE Travis Kelce (Chiefs) - 124 Targets

Target Projection: TE3
Point Projection: TE3
ADP: 72.4 (TE5)

Not once in his career has Travis Kelce had fewer than 120 targets with QB Patrick Mahomes.

He's clearly slowing down, as evidenced by his career-worst 6.2 yards per target last year, but he has a high floor—and if the Chiefs offense plays better than expected, which is always possible with offensive HC Andy Reid, then Kelce could also have a respectable ceiling.